Forecasting monthly airline passenger numbers with small datasets using feature engineering and a modified principal component analysis

In this study, a machine learning approach based on time series models, different feature engineering, feature extraction, and feature derivation is proposed to improve air passenger forecasting. Different types of datasets were created to extract new features from the core data. An experiment was undertaken with artificial neural networks to test the performance of neurons in the hidden layer, to optimise the dimensions of all layers and to obtain an optimal choice of connection weights – thus the nonlinear optimisation problem could be solved directly. A method of tuning deep learning models using H2O (which is a feature-rich, open source machine learning platform known for its R and Spark integration and its ease of use) is also proposed, where the trained network model is built from samples of selected features from the dataset in order to ensure diversity of the samples and to improve training. A successful application of deep learning requires setting numerous parameters in order to achieve greater model accuracy. The number of hidden layers and the number of neurons, are key parameters in each layer of such a network. Hyper-parameter, grid search, and random hyper-parameter approaches aid in setting these important parameters. Moreover, a new ensemble strategy is suggested that shows potential to optimise parameter settings and hence save more computational resources throughout the tuning process of the models. The main objective, besides improving the performance metric, is to obtain a distribution on some hold-out datasets that resemble the original distribution of the training data. Particular attention is focused on creating a modified version of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) using a different correlation matrix – obtained by a different correlation coefficient based on kinetic energy to derive new features. The data were collected from several airline datasets to build a deep prediction model for forecasting airline passenger numbers. Preliminary experiments show that fine-tuning provides an efficient approach for tuning the ultimate number of hidden layers and the number of neurons in each layer when compared with the grid search method. Similarly, the results show that the modified version of PCA is more effective in data dimension reduction, classes reparability, and classification accuracy than using traditional PCA.</div

Road transport and emissions modelling in England and Wales: A machine learning modelling approach using spatial data

An expanding street network coupled with an increasing number of vehicles testifies to the significance and reliance on road transportation of modern economies. Unfortunately, the use of road transport comes with drawbacks such as its contribution to greenhouse gases (GHG) and air pollutant emissions, therefore becoming an obstacle to countries’ objectives to improve air quality and a barrier to the ambitious targets to reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions. Unsurprisingly, traffic forecasting, its environmental impacts and potential future configurations of road transport are some of the topics which have received a great deal of attention in the literature. However, traffic forecasting and the assessment of its determinants have been commonly restricted to specific, normally urban, areas while road transport emission studies do not take into account a large part of the road network, as they usually focus on major roads. This research aimed to contribute to the field of road transportation, by firstly developing a model to accurately estimate traffic across England and Wales at a granular (i.e., street segment) level, secondly by identifying the role of factors associated with road transportation and finally, by estimating CO2 and air pollutant emissions, known to be responsible for climate change as well as negative impacts on human health and ecosystems. The thesis identifies potential emissions abatement from the adoption of novel road vehicles technologies and policy measures. This is achieved by analysing transport scenarios to assess future impacts on air quality and CO2 emissions. The thesis concludes with a comparison of my estimates for road emissions with those from DfT modelling to assess the methodological robustness of machine learning algorithms applied in this research. The traffic modelling outputs reveal traffic patterns across urban and rural areas, while traffic estimation is achieved with high accuracy for all road classes. In addition, specific socioeconomic and roadway characteristics associated with traffic across all vehicle types and road classes are identified. Finally, CO2 and air pollution hot spots as well as the impact of open spaces on pollutants emissions and air quality are explored. Potential emission reduction with the employment of new vehicle technologies and policy implementation is also assessed, so as the results can support urban planning and inform policies related to transport congestion and environmental impacts mitigation. Considering the disaggregated approach, the methodology can be used to facilitate policy making for both local and national aggregated levels

The creation of “Questions Bank" and introduction of 2.0. examination session

In the Institute of American Studies and Polish Diaspora Jagiellonian University, with the support of the Distance Learning Centre at the Jagiellonian University was introduced an innovative method of examination based on empowering the students. During the 2014 session, the students were invited to create test questions. Accepted by the lecturer questions were used on he exam. Extensive “Questions Bank” may be used in subsequent examinations 2.0. The authors of the paper present practical advice on how to prepare and carry out such an examination. They share know how of practical suggestions from pedagogical to technical aspect of moving from teaching to learning while using the idea of Questions Bank. They discuss the impact on the motivation and creativity of students, the principles of achievement and assessment, methods of verifying the content of the questions and technical measures to make questions and hindering cheating. The use of innovative methods of preparing and conducting the exam based on the Questions Bank had a positive impact on the mobilization and involvement of students, which resulted in a very good performance evaluation questionnaires of the lecture

OPTIMIZATION OF STATION LOCATIONS AND TRACK ALIGNMENTS FOR RAIL TRANSIT LINES

Designing urban rail transit systems is a complex problem, which involves the determination of station locations, track geometry, right-of-way type, and various other system characteristics. The existing studies overlook the complex interactions between railway alignments and station locations in a practical design process. This study proposes a comprehensive methodology that helps transit planners to concurrently optimize station locations and track alignments for an urban rail transit line. The modeling framework resolves the essential trade-off between an economically efficient system with low initial and operation cost and an effective system that provides convenient service for the public. The proposed method accounts for various geometric requirements and real-world design constraints for track alignment and stations plans. This method integrates a genetic algorithm (GA) for optimization with comprehensive evaluation of various important measures of effectiveness based on processing Geographical Information System (GIS) data. The base model designs the track alignment through a sequence of preset stations. Detailed assumptions and formulations are presented for geometric requirements, design constraints, and evaluation criteria. Three extensions of the base model are proposed. The first extension explicitly incorporates vehicle dynamics in the design of track alignments, with the objective of better balancing the initial construction cost with the operation and user costs recurring throughout the system's life cycle. In the second extension, an integrated optimization model of rail transit station locations and track alignment is formulated for situations in which the locations of major stations are not preset. The concurrent optimization model searches through additional decision variables for station locations and station types, estimate rail transit demand, and incorporates demand and station cost in the evaluation framework. The third extension considers the existing road network when selecting sections of the alignment. Special algorithms are developed to allow the optimized alignment to take advantage of links in an existing network for construction cost reduction, and to account for disturbances of roadway traffic at highway/rail crossings. Numerical results show that these extensions have significantly enhanced the applicability of the proposed optimization methodology in concurrently selecting rail transit station locations and generating track alignment