On The Use Of Some Optimal Strategies Of Fiscal Administration During Economic Crisis

Although the provisions of the Fiscal Procedure Code create the image of some norms with a somewhat "rigid" character, a series of options specific to modern finance behind the legal text require consideration of optimal strategies by the institutions of tax administration. Because of the contribution to the growth of the revenues to the consolidated budget, important especially during an economic crisis, we considered the analysis and modelling of several default options included in the Fiscal Procedure Code, both with respect to debt collection and to tax inspection. Increased efficiency has been analyzed both in terms of the possibility of application of enforcement measures, but also of appropriate strategies to combat tax evasion by fiscal control and introducing a "flat" tax. The modelling of decisions included, as instruments, the valuation of the assets in risky conditions, theory of games and ARMA econometric model. The study concludes that in the early periods of economic crisis it is not the ease of tax administration (rescheduling, delays, exemptions) that leads to an effective policy but rather government policies that reduce the probability of bankruptcy among companies. Regarding the tax inspection, the model used leads to possibilities of profound analysis of the dimensions of the control activity and the design of a flat tax. Financial modelling of several tax administration decisions resulted in a procedure by Order of the President of the National Agency for Tax Administration (ANAF) no. 1126/2008 and therefore the use of flexible models must consider, even in the budgetary sector, besides increasing profitability on earnings also the risk of insolvency.tax administration, insolvency risk, option theory, theory of games, flat tax

Modelling welfare effects of a liberalisation of the Dutch electricity market

The Dutch electricity sector has traditionally been dominated by the public sector. Although this organisational structure resulted in a reliable and low-priced system, it is said not to be completely stable and efficient. National and international developments stimulate the introduction of a liberalised system. In this article, we present the model NEDMOD which is used to estimate possible welfare gains of an implementation of a liberalised market system in the Dutch electricity market

Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning

The development of tractable forward looking models of monetary policy has lead to an explosion of research on the implications of adopting Taylor-type interest rate rules. Indeterminacies have been found to arise for some specifications of the interest rate rule, raising the possibility of inefficient fluctuations due to the dependence of expectations on extraneous "sunspots ". Separately, recent work by a number of authors has shown that sunspot equilibria previously thought to be unstable under private agent learning can in some cases be stable when the observed sunspot has a suitable time series structure. In this paper we generalize the "common factor "technique, used in this analysis, to examine standard monetary models that combine forward looking expectations and predetermined variables. We consider a variety of specifications that incorporate both lagged and expected inflation in the Phillips Curve, and both expected inflation and inertial elements in the policy rule. We find that some policy rules can indeed lead to learnable sunspot solutions and we investigate the conditions under which this phenomenon arises

A System Dynamics Model of Cyclical Office Oversupply

This article explores office market system dynamics through a simple simulation model. Model lag and adjustment parameters similar to real office markets generate explosive cycles. Simulations show that deviations from equilibrium can be reduced by changing the information structure of the system. System dynamics, principle/agent conflicts, a prisoners’ dilemma game, faulty information (poor forecasting, market research and valuation techniques), regulatory institutions, and differing equilibria in office space and financial markets all contribute to allocative inefficiency. Thinking of office markets as a "managed feedback control system" may be a useful representation of the oversupply problem. Leverage points for system improvement may be a municipal "queue" to address agency and prisoner's dilemma problems, improved forecasting techniques and more reliance on forecasting.

On the indeterminacy of new-Keynesian economics

We study identiÞcation in a class of three-equation monetary models. We argue that these models are typically not identiÞed. For any given exactly identiÞed model, we provide an algorithm that generates a class of equivalent models that have the same reduced form. We use our algorithm to provide four examples of the consequences of lack of identiÞcation. In our Þrst two examples we show that it is not possible to tell whether the policy rule or the Phillips curve is forward or backward looking. In example 3 we establish an equivalence between a class of models proposed by Benhabib and Farmer [1] and the standard new-Keynesian model. This result is disturbing since equilibria in the Benhabib-Farmer model are typically indeterminate for a class of policy rules that generate determinate outcomes in the new-Keynesian model. In example 4, we show that there is an equivalence between determinate and indeterminate models even if one knows the structural equations of the model. JEL Classification: C39, C62, D51, E52, E58IdentiÞcation, indeterminacy, new-Keynesian model, transparency

Stochastic Infinite Horizon Forecasts for Social Security and Related Studies

This paper consists of three reports on stochastic forecasting for Social Security, on infinite horizons, immigration, and structural time series models. 1) In our preferred stochastic immigration forecast, total net immigration drops from current levels down to about one million by 2020, then slowly rises to 1.2 million at the end of the century, with 95% probability bounds of 800,000 to 1.8 million at the century's end. Adding stochastic immigration makes little difference to the probability distribution of the old age dependency ratio. 2) We incorporate parameter uncertainty, stochastic trends, and uncertain ultimate levels in stochastic models of wage growth and fertility. These changes sometimes substantially affect the probability distributions of the individual input forecasts, but they make relatively little difference when embedded in the more fully stochastic Social Security projection. 3) Using a 500-year stochastic projection, we estimate an infinite horizon balance of -5.15% of payroll, compared to the -3.5% of the 2004 Trustees Report, probably reflecting different mortality projections. Our 95% probability interval bounds are -10.5 and -1.3%. Such forecasts, which reflect only "routine" uncertainty, have many problems but nonetheless seem worthwhile.

Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning

The development of tractable forward looking models of monetary policy has lead to an explosion of research on the implications of adopting Taylor-type interest rate rules. Indeterminacies have been found to arise for some specifications of the interest rate rule, raising the possibility of inefficient fluctuations due to the dependence of expectations on extraneous “sunspots ”. Separately, recent work by a number of authors has shown that sunspot equilibria previously thought to be unstable under private agent learning can in some cases be stable when the observed sunspot has a suitable time series structure. In this paper we generalize the “common factor ”technique, used in this analysis, to examine standard monetary models that combine forward looking expectations and predetermined variables. We consider a variety of specifications that incorporate both lagged and expected inflation in the Phillips Curve, and both expected inflation and inertial elements in the policy rule. We find that some policy rules can indeed lead to learnable sunspot solutions and we investigate the conditions under which this phenomenon arises.Monetary Policy, sunspots, expectations, learning, stability

Bubbles and crashes in a behavioural finance model.

Finance; Model; Working;