Block Hankel Tensor ARIMA for Multiple Short Time Series Forecasting

This work proposes a novel approach for multiple time series forecasting. At first, multi-way delay embedding transform (MDT) is employed to represent time series as low-rank block Hankel tensors (BHT). Then, the higher-order tensors are projected to compressed core tensors by applying Tucker decomposition. At the same time, the generalized tensor Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is explicitly used on consecutive core tensors to predict future samples. In this manner, the proposed approach tactically incorporates the unique advantages of MDT tensorization (to exploit mutual correlations) and tensor ARIMA coupled with low-rank Tucker decomposition into a unified framework. This framework exploits the low-rank structure of block Hankel tensors in the embedded space and captures the intrinsic correlations among multiple TS, which thus can improve the forecasting results, especially for multiple short time series. Experiments conducted on three public datasets and two industrial datasets verify that the proposed BHT-ARIMA effectively improves forecasting accuracy and reduces computational cost compared with the state-of-the-art methods.Comment: Accepted by AAAI 202

Tensor-variate machine learning on graphs

Traditional machine learning algorithms are facing significant challenges as the world enters the era of big data, with a dramatic expansion in volume and range of applications and an increase in the variety of data sources. The large- and multi-dimensional nature of data often increases the computational costs associated with their processing and raises the risks of model over-fitting - a phenomenon known as the curse of dimensionality. To this end, tensors have become a subject of great interest in the data analytics community, owing to their remarkable ability to super-compress high-dimensional data into a low-rank format, while retaining the original data structure and interpretability. This leads to a significant reduction in computational costs, from an exponential complexity to a linear one in the data dimensions. An additional challenge when processing modern big data is that they often reside on irregular domains and exhibit relational structures, which violates the regular grid assumptions of traditional machine learning models. To this end, there has been an increasing amount of research in generalizing traditional learning algorithms to graph data. This allows for the processing of graph signals while accounting for the underlying relational structure, such as user interactions in social networks, vehicle flows in traffic networks, transactions in supply chains, chemical bonds in proteins, and trading data in financial networks, to name a few. Although promising results have been achieved in these fields, there is a void in literature when it comes to the conjoint treatment of tensors and graphs for data analytics. Solutions in this area are increasingly urgent, as modern big data is both large-dimensional and irregular in structure. To this end, the goal of this thesis is to explore machine learning methods that can fully exploit the advantages of both tensors and graphs. In particular, the following approaches are introduced: (i) Graph-regularized tensor regression framework for modelling high-dimensional data while accounting for the underlying graph structure; (ii) Tensor-algebraic approach for computing efficient convolution on graphs; (iii) Graph tensor network framework for designing neural learning systems which is both general enough to describe most existing neural network architectures and flexible enough to model large-dimensional data on any and many irregular domains. The considered frameworks were employed in several real-world applications, including air quality forecasting, protein classification, and financial modelling. Experimental results validate the advantages of the proposed methods, which achieved better or comparable performance against state-of-the-art models. Additionally, these methods benefit from increased interpretability and reduced computational costs, which are crucial for tackling the challenges posed by the era of big data.Open Acces

The impact of macroeconomic leading indicators on inventory management

Forecasting tactical sales is important for long term decisions such as procurement and informing lower level inventory management decisions. Macroeconomic indicators have been shown to improve the forecast accuracy at tactical level, as these indicators can provide early warnings of changing markets while at the same time tactical sales are sufficiently aggregated to facilitate the identification of useful leading indicators. Past research has shown that we can achieve significant gains by incorporating such information. However, at lower levels, that inventory decisions are taken, this is often not feasible due to the level of noise in the data. To take advantage of macroeconomic leading indicators at this level we need to translate the tactical forecasts into operational level ones. In this research we investigate how to best assimilate top level forecasts that incorporate such exogenous information with bottom level (at Stock Keeping Unit level) extrapolative forecasts. The aim is to demonstrate whether incorporating these variables has a positive impact on bottom level planning and eventually inventory levels. We construct appropriate hierarchies of sales and use that structure to reconcile the forecasts, and in turn the different available information, across levels. We are interested both at the point forecast and the prediction intervals, as the latter inform safety stock decisions. Therefore the contribution of this research is twofold. We investigate the usefulness of macroeconomic leading indicators for SKU level forecasts and alternative ways to estimate the variance of hierarchically reconciled forecasts. We provide evidence using a real case study

Oblivious Network Optimization and Security Modeling in Sustainable Smart Grids and Cities

Today\u27s interconnected world requires an inexpensive, fast, and reliable way of transferring information. There exists an increasingly important need for intelligent and adaptable routing of network flows. In the last few years, many researchers have worked toward developing versatile solutions to the problem of routing network flows in unpredictable circumstances. These attempts have evolved into a rich literature in the area of oblivious network design which typically route the network flows via a routing scheme that makes use of a spanning tree or a set of trees of the graph representation of the network. In the first chapter, we provide an introduction to network design. This introductory chapter has been designed to clarify the importance and position of oblivious routing problems in the context of network design as well as its containing field of research. Part I of this dissertation discusses the fundamental role of linked hierarchical data structures in providing the mathematical tools needed to construct rigorous versatile routing schemes and applies hierarchical routing tools to the process of constructing versatile routing schemes. Part II of this dissertation applies the routing tools generated in Part I to address real-world network optimization problems in the area of electrical power networks, clusters of micrograms, and content-centric networks. There is an increasing concern regarding the security and privacy of both physical and communication layers of smart interactive customer-driven power networks, better known as smart grids. Part III of this dissertation utilizes an advanced interdisciplinary approach to address existing security and privacy issues, proposing legitimate countermeasures for each of them from the standpoint of both computing and electrical engineering. The proposed methods are theoretically proven by mathematical tools and illustrated by real-world examples

IDENTIFYING A CUSTOMER CENTERED APPROACH FOR URBAN PLANNING: DEFINING A FRAMEWORK AND EVALUATING POTENTIAL IN A LIVABILITY CONTEXT

In transportation planning, public engagement is an essential requirement forinformed decision-making. This is especially true for assessing abstract concepts such aslivability, where it is challenging to define objective measures and to obtain input that canbe used to gauge performance of communities. This dissertation focuses on advancing adata-driven decision-making approach for the transportation planning domain in thecontext of livability. First, a conceptual model for a customer-centric framework fortransportation planning is designed integrating insight from multiple disciplines (chapter1), then a data-mining approach to extracting features important for defining customersatisfaction in a livability context is described (chapter 2), and finally an appraisal of thepotential of social media review mining for enhancing understanding of livability measuresand increasing engagement in the planning process is undertaken (chapter 3). The resultsof this work also include a sentiment analysis and visualization package for interpreting anautomated user-defined translation of qualitative measures of livability. The packageevaluates users satisfaction of neighborhoods through social media and enhances thetraditional approaches to defining livability planning measures. This approach has thepotential to capitalize on residents interests in social media outlets and to increase publicengagement in the planning process by encouraging users to participate in onlineneighborhood satisfaction reporting. The results inform future work for deploying acomprehensive approach to planning that draws the marketing structure of transportationnetwork products with residential nodes as the center of the structure

Tensor Regression

Regression analysis is a key area of interest in the field of data analysis and machine learning which is devoted to exploring the dependencies between variables, often using vectors. The emergence of high dimensional data in technologies such as neuroimaging, computer vision, climatology and social networks, has brought challenges to traditional data representation methods. Tensors, as high dimensional extensions of vectors, are considered as natural representations of high dimensional data. In this book, the authors provide a systematic study and analysis of tensor-based regression models and their applications in recent years. It groups and illustrates the existing tensor-based regression methods and covers the basics, core ideas, and theoretical characteristics of most tensor-based regression methods. In addition, readers can learn how to use existing tensor-based regression methods to solve specific regression tasks with multiway data, what datasets can be selected, and what software packages are available to start related work as soon as possible. Tensor Regression is the first thorough overview of the fundamentals, motivations, popular algorithms, strategies for efficient implementation, related applications, available datasets, and software resources for tensor-based regression analysis. It is essential reading for all students, researchers and practitioners of working on high dimensional data.Comment: 187 pages, 32 figures, 10 table

Advances in Public Transport Platform for the Development of Sustainability Cities

Modern societies demand high and varied mobility, which in turn requires a complex transport system adapted to social needs that guarantees the movement of people and goods in an economically efficient and safe way, but all are subject to a new environmental rationality and the new logic of the paradigm of sustainability. From this perspective, an efficient and flexible transport system that provides intelligent and sustainable mobility patterns is essential to our economy and our quality of life. The current transport system poses growing and significant challenges for the environment, human health, and sustainability, while current mobility schemes have focused much more on the private vehicle that has conditioned both the lifestyles of citizens and cities, as well as urban and territorial sustainability. Transport has a very considerable weight in the framework of sustainable development due to environmental pressures, associated social and economic effects, and interrelations with other sectors. The continuous growth that this sector has experienced over the last few years and its foreseeable increase, even considering the change in trends due to the current situation of generalized crisis, make the challenge of sustainable transport a strategic priority at local, national, European, and global levels. This Special Issue will pay attention to all those research approaches focused on the relationship between evolution in the area of transport with a high incidence in the environment from the perspective of efficiency

Energy Analytics for Infrastructure: An Application to Institutional Buildings

abstract: Commercial buildings in the United States account for 19% of the total energy consumption annually. Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS), which serves as the benchmark for all the commercial buildings provides critical input for EnergyStar models. Smart energy management technologies, sensors, innovative demand response programs, and updated versions of certification programs elevate the opportunity to mitigate energy-related problems (blackouts and overproduction) and guides energy managers to optimize the consumption characteristics. With increasing advancements in technologies relying on the ‘Big Data,' codes and certification programs such as the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE), and the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) evaluates during the pre-construction phase. It is mostly carried out with the assumed quantitative and qualitative values calculated from energy models such as Energy Plus and E-quest. However, the energy consumption analysis through Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) is not commonly used by energy managers to perform complete implementation, causing the need for better energy analytic framework. The dissertation utilizes Interval Data (ID) and establishes three different frameworks to identify electricity losses, predict electricity consumption and detect anomalies using data mining, deep learning, and mathematical models. The process of energy analytics integrates with the computational science and contributes to several objectives which are to 1. Develop a framework to identify both technical and non-technical losses using clustering and semi-supervised learning techniques. 2. Develop an integrated framework to predict electricity consumption using wavelet based data transformation model and deep learning algorithms. 3. Develop a framework to detect anomalies using ensemble empirical mode decomposition and isolation forest algorithms. With a thorough research background, the first phase details on performing data analytics on the demand-supply database to determine the potential energy loss reduction potentials. Data preprocessing and electricity prediction framework in the second phase integrates mathematical models and deep learning algorithms to accurately predict consumption. The third phase employs data decomposition model and data mining techniques to detect the anomalies of institutional buildings.Dissertation/ThesisDoctoral Dissertation Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering 201