A comprehensive comparison of the performance of metaheuristic algorithms in neural network training for nonlinear system identification

Many problems in daily life exhibit nonlinear behavior. Therefore, it is important to solve nonlinear problems. These problems are complex and difficult due to their nonlinear nature. It is seen in the literature that different artificial intelligence techniques are used to solve these problems. One of the most important of these techniques is artificial neural networks. Obtaining successful results with an artificial neural network depends on its training process. In other words, it should be trained with a good training algorithm. Especially, metaheuristic algorithms are frequently used in artificial neural network training due to their advantages. In this study, for the first time, the performance of sixteen metaheuristic algorithms in artificial neural network training for the identification of nonlinear systems is analyzed. It is aimed to determine the most effective metaheuristic neural network training algorithms. The metaheuristic algorithms are examined in terms of solution quality and convergence speed. In the applications, six nonlinear systems are used. The mean-squared error (MSE) is utilized as the error metric. The best mean training error values obtained for six nonlinear systems were 3.5×10−4, 4.7×10−4, 5.6×10−5, 4.8×10−4, 5.2×10−4, and 2.4×10−3, respectively. In addition, the best mean test error values found for all systems were successful. When the results were examined, it was observed that biogeography-based optimization, moth–flame optimization, the artificial bee colony algorithm, teaching–learning-based optimization, and the multi-verse optimizer were generally more effective than other metaheuristic algorithms in the identification of nonlinear systems

Enhancing statistical wind speed forecasting models : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Engineering at Massey University, Manawatū Campus, New Zealand

In recent years, wind speed forecasting models have seen significant development and growth. In particular, hybrid models have been emerging since the last decade. Hybrid models combine two or more techniques from several categories, with each model utilizing its distinct strengths. Mainly, data-driven models that include statistical and Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) models are deployed in hybrid models for shorter forecasting time horizons (< 6hrs). Literature studies show that machine learning models have gained enormous potential owing to their accuracy and robustness. On the other hand, only a handful of studies are available on the performance enhancement of statistical models, despite the fact that hybrid models are incomplete without statistical models. To address the knowledge gap, this thesis identified the shortcomings of traditional statistical models while enhancing prediction accuracy. Three statistical models are considered for analyses: Grey Model [GM(1,1)], Markov Chain, and Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing models. Initially, the problems that limit the forecasting models' applicability are highlighted. Such issues include negative wind speed predictions, failure of predetermined accuracy levels, non-optimal estimates, and additional computational cost with limited performance. To address these concerns, improved forecasting models are proposed considering wind speed data of Palmerston North, New Zealand. Several methodologies have been developed to improve the model performance and fulfill the necessary and sufficient conditions. These approaches include adjusting dynamic moving window, self-adaptive state categorization algorithm, a similar approach to the leave-one-out method, and mixed initialization method. Keeping in view the application of the hybrid methods, novel MODWT-ARIMA-Markov and AGO-HDES models are further proposed as secondary objectives. Also, a comprehensive analysis is presented by comparing sixteen models from three categories, each for four case studies, three rolling windows, and three forecasting horizons. Overall, the improved models showed higher accuracy than their counter traditional models. Finally, the future directions are highlighted that need subsequent research to improve forecasting performance further

Sensors Fault Diagnosis Trends and Applications

Fault diagnosis has always been a concern for industry. In general, diagnosis in complex systems requires the acquisition of information from sensors and the processing and extracting of required features for the classification or identification of faults. Therefore, fault diagnosis of sensors is clearly important as faulty information from a sensor may lead to misleading conclusions about the whole system. As engineering systems grow in size and complexity, it becomes more and more important to diagnose faulty behavior before it can lead to total failure. In the light of above issues, this book is dedicated to trends and applications in modern-sensor fault diagnosis