5,988 research outputs found
Smoothing sparse and unevenly sampled curves using semiparametric mixed models: An application to online auctions
Functional data analysis can be challenging when the functional objects are sampled only very sparsely and unevenly. Most approaches rely on smoothing to recover the underlying functional object from the data which can be difficult if the data is irregularly distributed. In this paper we present a new approach that can overcome this challenge. The approach is based on the ideas of mixed models. Specifically, we propose a semiparametric mixed model with boosting to recover the functional object. While the model can handle sparse and unevenly distributed data, it also results in conceptually more meaningful functional objects. In particular, we motivate our method within the framework of eBay's online auctions. Online auctions produce monotonic increasing price curves that are often correlated across two auctions. The semiparametric mixed model accounts for this correlation in a parsimonious way. It also estimates the underlying increasing trend from the data without imposing model-constraints. Our application shows that the resulting functional objects are conceptually more appealing. Moreover, when used to forecast the outcome of an online auction, our approach also results in more accurate price predictions compared to standard approaches. We illustrate our model on a set of 183 closed auctions for Palm M515 personal digital assistants
Exploring and Modeling Online Auctions Using Functional Data Analysis
In recent years, the increasing popularity of eCommerce, and particularly online auctions has stirred a great amount of scholarly research, especially in information systems, economics,
and marketing, but little or no attention has been received from statistics. ECommerce arrives with enormous amounts of rich and clean data as well as statistical challenges. eCommerce not only creates new data challenges, it also motivates the need for innovative models. While there exist many theories about economic behavior of participants in market exchanges, many of these theories have been developed before the appearance of the world wide web and often are not appropriate to be used in explaining modern economic behavior in eCommerce. This calls for
new models that describe not only the evolution of a process, but also its dynamics. This research takes a different look at online auctions and proposes to study an auction's price evolution and associated price dynamics from different points of view using functional data
analysis techniques.
In this dissertation, we develop novel dynamic modeling procedures applicable to online auctions. First, we develop a dynamic forecasting system to predict the price of an ongoing auction. By dynamic we mean that the model can predict the price of an auction ``in-progress" and can update its prediction based on newly
arriving information. Our dynamic forecasting model accounts for the special features of online auction data by using modern functional data analysis techniques. We also use the functional context to systematically describe the
empirical regularities of auction dynamics. Second, we propose a family of differential equation models to capture the dynamics in online auctions. A novel multiple comparisons test is proposed to compare dynamics models of auction sub-populations. We accomplish the modeling task
within the framework of principal differential analysis and functional models. Third, we propose Model-based Functional Differential Equation Trees to better incorporate the different characteristics of the auction, item, bidders and seller into the differential equation. We compare this new tree-method with trees either based on high-dimensional multivariate responses or functional responses. We apply our methods to a novel set of Harry Potter and Microsoft Xbox data for model validation and comparison of method
Real-Time Bidding by Reinforcement Learning in Display Advertising
The majority of online display ads are served through real-time bidding (RTB)
--- each ad display impression is auctioned off in real-time when it is just
being generated from a user visit. To place an ad automatically and optimally,
it is critical for advertisers to devise a learning algorithm to cleverly bid
an ad impression in real-time. Most previous works consider the bid decision as
a static optimization problem of either treating the value of each impression
independently or setting a bid price to each segment of ad volume. However, the
bidding for a given ad campaign would repeatedly happen during its life span
before the budget runs out. As such, each bid is strategically correlated by
the constrained budget and the overall effectiveness of the campaign (e.g., the
rewards from generated clicks), which is only observed after the campaign has
completed. Thus, it is of great interest to devise an optimal bidding strategy
sequentially so that the campaign budget can be dynamically allocated across
all the available impressions on the basis of both the immediate and future
rewards. In this paper, we formulate the bid decision process as a
reinforcement learning problem, where the state space is represented by the
auction information and the campaign's real-time parameters, while an action is
the bid price to set. By modeling the state transition via auction competition,
we build a Markov Decision Process framework for learning the optimal bidding
policy to optimize the advertising performance in the dynamic real-time bidding
environment. Furthermore, the scalability problem from the large real-world
auction volume and campaign budget is well handled by state value approximation
using neural networks.Comment: WSDM 201
Competition Between Auctions
Even though auctions are capturing an increasing share of commerce, they are typically treated in the theoretical economics literature as isolated. That is, an auction is typically treated as a single seller facing multiple buyers or as a single buyer facing multiple sellers. In this paper, we review the state of the art of competition between auctions. We consider three different types of competition: competition between auctions, competition between formats, and competition between auctioneers vying for auction traffic. We highlight the newest experimental, statistical and analytical methods in the analysis of competition between auctions.auctions, bidding, competition, auction formats, auction houses
Functional Data Analysis in Electronic Commerce Research
This paper describes opportunities and challenges of using functional data
analysis (FDA) for the exploration and analysis of data originating from
electronic commerce (eCommerce). We discuss the special data structures that
arise in the online environment and why FDA is a natural approach for
representing and analyzing such data. The paper reviews several FDA methods and
motivates their usefulness in eCommerce research by providing a glimpse into
new domain insights that they allow. We argue that the wedding of eCommerce
with FDA leads to innovations both in statistical methodology, due to the
challenges and complications that arise in eCommerce data, and in online
research, by being able to ask (and subsequently answer) new research questions
that classical statistical methods are not able to address, and also by
expanding on research questions beyond the ones traditionally asked in the
offline environment. We describe several applications originating from online
transactions which are new to the statistics literature, and point out
statistical challenges accompanied by some solutions. We also discuss some
promising future directions for joint research efforts between researchers in
eCommerce and statistics.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000132 in the
Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
A demand-driven approach for a multi-agent system in Supply Chain Management
This paper presents the architecture of a multi-agent decision support system for Supply Chain Management (SCM) which has been designed to compete in the TAC SCM game. The behaviour of the system is demand-driven and the agents plan, predict, and react dynamically to changes in the market. The main strength of the system lies in the ability of the Demand agent to predict customer winning bid prices - the highest prices the agent can offer customers and still obtain their orders. This paper investigates the effect of the ability to predict customer order prices on the overall performance of the system. Four strategies are proposed and compared for predicting such prices. The experimental results reveal which strategies are better and show that there is a correlation between the accuracy of the models' predictions and the overall system performance: the more accurate the prediction of customer order prices, the higher the profit. © 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
Deep Landscape Forecasting for Real-time Bidding Advertising
The emergence of real-time auction in online advertising has drawn huge
attention of modeling the market competition, i.e., bid landscape forecasting.
The problem is formulated as to forecast the probability distribution of market
price for each ad auction. With the consideration of the censorship issue which
is caused by the second-price auction mechanism, many researchers have devoted
their efforts on bid landscape forecasting by incorporating survival analysis
from medical research field. However, most existing solutions mainly focus on
either counting-based statistics of the segmented sample clusters, or learning
a parameterized model based on some heuristic assumptions of distribution
forms. Moreover, they neither consider the sequential patterns of the feature
over the price space. In order to capture more sophisticated yet flexible
patterns at fine-grained level of the data, we propose a Deep Landscape
Forecasting (DLF) model which combines deep learning for probability
distribution forecasting and survival analysis for censorship handling.
Specifically, we utilize a recurrent neural network to flexibly model the
conditional winning probability w.r.t. each bid price. Then we conduct the bid
landscape forecasting through probability chain rule with strict mathematical
derivations. And, in an end-to-end manner, we optimize the model by minimizing
two negative likelihood losses with comprehensive motivations. Without any
specific assumption for the distribution form of bid landscape, our model shows
great advantages over previous works on fitting various sophisticated market
price distributions. In the experiments over two large-scale real-world
datasets, our model significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art solutions
under various metrics.Comment: KDD 2019. The reproducible code and dataset link is
https://github.com/rk2900/DL
E-Fulfillment and Multi-Channel Distribution – A Review
This review addresses the specific supply chain management issues of Internet fulfillment in a multi-channel environment. It provides a systematic overview of managerial planning tasks and reviews corresponding quantitative models. In this way, we aim to enhance the understanding of multi-channel e-fulfillment and to identify gaps between relevant managerial issues and academic literature, thereby indicating directions for future research. One of the recurrent patterns in today’s e-commerce operations is the combination of ‘bricks-and-clicks’, the integration of e-fulfillment into a portfolio of multiple alternative distribution channels. From a supply chain management perspective, multi-channel distribution provides opportunities for serving different customer segments, creating synergies, and exploiting economies of scale. However, in order to successfully exploit these opportunities companies need to master novel challenges. In particular, the design of a multi-channel distribution system requires a constant trade-off between process integration and separation across multiple channels. In addition, sales and operations decisions are ever more tightly intertwined as delivery and after-sales services are becoming key components of the product offering.Distribution;E-fulfillment;Literature Review;Online Retailing
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