An Assessment of PIER Electric Grid Research 2003-2014 White Paper

This white paper describes the circumstances in California around the turn of the 21st century that led the California Energy Commission (CEC) to direct additional Public Interest Energy Research funds to address critical electric grid issues, especially those arising from integrating high penetrations of variable renewable generation with the electric grid. It contains an assessment of the beneficial science and technology advances of the resultant portfolio of electric grid research projects administered under the direction of the CEC by a competitively selected contractor, the University of California’s California Institute for Energy and the Environment, from 2003-2014

An overview of recent research results and future research avenues using simulation studies in project management

This paper gives an overview of three simulation studies in dynamic project scheduling integrating baseline scheduling with risk analysis and project control. This integration is known in the literature as dynamic scheduling. An integrated project control method is presented using a project control simulation approach that combines the three topics into a single decision support system. The method makes use of Monte Carlo simulations and connects schedule risk analysis (SRA) with earned value management (EVM). A corrective action mechanism is added to the simulation model to measure the efficiency of two alternative project control methods. At the end of the paper, a summary of recent and state-of-the-art results is given, and directions for future research based on a new research study are presented

Challenges to the Integration of Renewable Resources at High System Penetration

Successfully integrating renewable resources into the electric grid at penetration levels to meet a 33 percent Renewables Portfolio Standard for California presents diverse technical and organizational challenges. This report characterizes these challenges by coordinating problems in time and space, balancing electric power on a range of scales from microseconds to decades and from individual homes to hundreds of miles. Crucial research needs were identified related to grid operation, standards and procedures, system design and analysis, and incentives, and public engagement in each scale of analysis. Performing this coordination on more refined scales of time and space independent of any particular technology, is defined as a “smart grid.” “Smart” coordination of the grid should mitigate technical difficulties associated with intermittent and distributed generation, support grid stability and reliability, and maximize benefits to California ratepayers by using the most economic technologies, design and operating approaches

Recent Significant Advances in Estimating and Forecasting Theories and Economic Modelling: With Applications to Asian Investment Studies.

The paper presents the basics of a new and flexible approach to statistically modelling the activities of multi-sectoral economies (Tran Van Hoa, 1992) and applies it to study investment in five major East Asian countries (ie, China, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand) during the period 1970-1993 using recent World Bank databases. The approach dominates the computable general equilibrium method in its data-consistent structure.ECONOMIC MODELS ; EVALUATION ; FORECASTS ; INVESTMENTS

Managing stimulation of regional innovation subjects’ interaction in the digital economy

The reported study was funded by RFBR according to the research project No. 18-01000204_a, No. 16-07-00031_a, No. 18-07-00975_a.Purpose: The article is devoted to solving fundamental scientific problems in the scope of the development of forecasting modeling methods and evaluation of regional company’s innovative development parameters, synthesizing new methods of big data processing and intelligent analysis, as well as methods of knowledge eliciting and forecasting the dynamics of regional innovation developments through benchmarking. Design/Methodology/Approach: For regional economic development, it is required to identify the mechanisms that contribute to (or impede) the innovative economic development of the regions. The synergetic approach to management is based on the fact that there are multiple paths of IS development (scenarios with different probabilities), although it is necessary to reach the required attractor by meeting the management goals. Findings: The present research is focused on obtainment of new knowledge in creating a technique of multi-agent search, collection and processing of data on company’s innovative development indicators, models and methods of intelligent analysis of the collected data. Practical Implications: The author developed recommendations before starting the process of institutional changes in a specific regional innovation system. The article formulates recommendations on the implementation of institutional changes in the region taking into account the sociocultural characteristics of the region’s population. Originality/Value: It is the first time, when a complex of models and methods is based on the use of a convergent model of large data volumes processing is presented.peer-reviewe

Models in evolutionary economics and environmental policy: Towards an evolutionary environmental economics

In this paper we review evolutionary economic modelling in relation to environmental policy. We discuss three areas in which evolutionary economic models have a particularly high added value for environmental policy-making: the double externality problem, technological transitions and consumer demand. We explore the possibilities to apply evolutionary economic models in environmental policy assessment, including the opportunities for making policy-making endogenous to environmental innovation. We end with a critical discussion of the challenges that remain.

A System Dynamics Model of Cyclical Office Oversupply

This article explores office market system dynamics through a simple simulation model. Model lag and adjustment parameters similar to real office markets generate explosive cycles. Simulations show that deviations from equilibrium can be reduced by changing the information structure of the system. System dynamics, principle/agent conflicts, a prisoners’ dilemma game, faulty information (poor forecasting, market research and valuation techniques), regulatory institutions, and differing equilibria in office space and financial markets all contribute to allocative inefficiency. Thinking of office markets as a "managed feedback control system" may be a useful representation of the oversupply problem. Leverage points for system improvement may be a municipal "queue" to address agency and prisoner's dilemma problems, improved forecasting techniques and more reliance on forecasting.

Stochastic Mortality, Macroeconomic Risks, and Life Insurer Solvency

Motivated by a recent demographic study establishing a link between macroeconomic fluctuations and the mortality index kt in the Lee-Carter model, we assess the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the solvency of a life insurance company. Liabilities in our stochastic simulation framework are driven by a GDP-linked variant of the Lee-Carter mortality model. Furthermore, interest rates and stock prices are allowed to react to changes in GDP, which itself is modeled as a stochastic process. Our results show that insolvency probabilities are significantly higher when the reaction of mortality rates to changes in GDP is incorporated.Life insurance, asset-liability management, stochastic mortality, Lee-Carter model, business cycle

Did Producer Hedging Opportunities in the Live Hog Contract Decline?

The paper assesses the usefulness of selective hedging strategies when combined with forecast techniques in the live hog contract. The use of routine futures and options hedging is not attractive relative to a cash-only strategy. However, forecasting and hedging can contribute to price risk management improvement for risk-averse producers. Consistent with previous research, the results indicate that the live hog contract continues to offer producers attractive pricing opportunities. The findings suggests that the success of the new lean value carcass contract may depend on its ability to attract trading volume from outside the traditional production sector.hedging, forecasting, risk management, live hog futures, lean hog futures

Time-dependent opportunities in energy business : a comparative study of locally available renewable and conventional fuels

This work investigates and compares energy-related, private business strategies, potentially interesting for investors willing to exploit either local biomass sources or strategic conventional fuels. Two distinct fuels and related power-production technologies are compared as a case study, in terms of economic efficiency: the biomass of cotton stalks and the natural gas. The carbon capture and storage option are also investigated for power plants based on both fuel types. The model used in this study investigates important economic aspects using a "real options" method instead of traditional Discounted Cash Flow techniques, as it might handle in a more effective way the problems arising from the stochastic nature of significant cash flow contributors' evolution like electricity, fuel and CO(2) allowance prices. The capital costs have also a functional relationship with time, thus providing an additional reason for implementing, "real options" as well as the learning-curves technique. The methodology as well as the results presented in this work, may lead to interesting conclusions and affect potential private investment strategies and future decision making. This study indicates that both technologies lead to positive investment yields, with the natural gas being more profitable for the case study examined, while the carbon capture and storage does not seem to be cost efficient with the current CO(2) allowance prices. Furthermore, low interest rates might encourage potential investors to wait before actualising their business plans while higher interest rates favor immediate investment decisions. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved