Automated ANN alerts : one step ahead with mobile support

In this paper, I examine the potential of mobile alerting services empowering investors to react quickly to critical market events. Therefore, an analysis of short-term (intraday) price effects is performed. I find abnormal returns to company announcements which are completed within a timeframe of minutes. To make use of these findings, these price effects are predicted using pre-defined external metrics and different estimation methodologies. Compared to previous research, the results provide support that artificial neural networks and multiple linear regression are good estimation models for forecasting price effects also on an intraday basis. As most of the price effect magnitude and effect delay can be estimated correctly, it is demonstrated how a suitable mobile alerting service combining a low level of user-intrusiveness and timely information supply can be designed

Predict Market Share with Users’ Online Activities Data: An Initial Study on Market Share and Search Index of Mobile Phone

Acquiring accurate and timely market share information is very important for producers to arrange producing plan and design marketing strategy. However the high cost and long period of collecting survey data in survey-based method make it much difficult to easily get latest market shares data. Recently, the emerging online web systems provide users with new and convenient ways of searching, learning, experiencing and buying products. The users’ activities data captured by these web systems can reflect users’ buying intentions and behaviours very well, and contain very valuable information for predicting market shares. In this study, the correlation between Google search index and market shares of mobile phones is analyzed with time series analysis technology. The experiment result shows the statistically significant relationships exist between search index and market shares. This indicates the easily got search index data with low cost has the power of timely forecasting market shares. This study opens a door to apply users’ online activities data to accurately and timely predict market shares, which will bring many benefits to producers and customers

Estimation of computer waste quantities using forecasting techniques

Technology changes rapidly over years providing continuously more options for computer alternatives and making life easier for economic, intra-relation or any other transactions. However, the introduction of new technology “pushes” old Information and Communication Technology (ICT) products to non-use. E-waste is defined as the quantities of ICT products which are not in use and is bivariate function of the sold quantities, and the probability that specific computers quantity will be regarded as obsolete. In this paper, an e-waste generation model is presented, which is applied to the following regions: Western and Eastern Europe, Asia/Pacific, Japan/Australia/New Zealand, North and South America. Furthermore, cumulative computer sales were retrieved for selected countries of the regions so as to compute obsolete computer quantities. In order to provide robust results for the forecasted quantities, a selection of forecasting models, namely (i) Bass, (ii) Gompertz, (iii) Logistic, (iv) Trend model, (v) Level model, (vi) AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA), and (vii) Exponential Smoothing were applied, depicting for each country that model which would provide better results in terms of minimum error indices (Mean Absolute Error and Mean Square Error) for the in-sample estimation. As new technology does not diffuse in all the regions of the world with the same speed due to different socio-economic factors, the lifespan distribution, which provides the probability of a certain quantity of computers to be considered as obsolete, is not adequately modeled in the literature. The time horizon for the forecasted quantities is 2014-2030, while the results show a very sharp increase in the USA and United Kingdom, due to the fact of decreasing computer lifespan and increasing sales

Manufactured Exports and FDI in the MED-11 Countries: Recent Evolution, Determinants and Prospects

This paper investigates the evolution and determinants of manufactured exports and FDI in MED-11 countries over the period 1985-2009 as well as the prospects of their evolution under different scenarios pertaining to the evolution of the determinants. The econometric analysis confirmed the role of exchange rate depreciation, the openness of the economy and the quality of institution and infrastructure in fostering manufactured exports and FDI inflows in the Region. The prospects’ assessment suggested that a scenario of deeper integration with the EU entails superior performance regarding manufactured exports and FDI than status quo or less integration with the EU but greater regional integration.Manufactured Exports, FDI, Institutions, MENA

Crime and Social media

Purpose-The study complements the scant macroeconomic literature on the development outcomes of social media by examining the relationship between Facebook penetration and violent crime levels in a cross-section of 148 countries for the year 2012. Design/methodology/approach-The empirical evidence is based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Tobit and Quantile regressions. In order to respond to policy concerns on the limited evidence on the consequences of social media in developing countries, the dataset is disaggregated into regions and income levels. The decomposition by income levels included: low income, lower middle income, upper middle income and high income. The corresponding regions include: Europe and Central Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Findings-From OLS and Tobit regressions, there is a negative relationship between Facebook penetration and crime. However, Quantile regressions reveal that the established negative relationship is noticeable exclusively in the 90th crime decile. Further, when the dataset is decomposed into regions and income levels, the negative relationship is evident in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) while a positive relationship is confirmed for sub-Saharan Africa. Policy implications are discussed. Originality/value- Studies on the development outcomes of social media are sparse because of a lack of reliable macroeconomic data on social media. This study primarily complemented three existing studies that have leveraged on a newly available dataset on Facebook

United States data collection activities and requirements, volume 1

The potential market for a data collection system was investigated to determine whether the user needs would be sufficient to support a satellite relay data collection system design. The activities of 107,407 data collections stations were studied to determine user needs in agriculture, climatology, environmental monitoring, forestry, geology, hydrology, meteorology, and oceanography. Descriptions of 50 distinct data collections networks are described and used to form the user data base. The computer program used to analyze the station data base is discussed, and results of the analysis are presented in maps and graphs. Information format and coding is described in the appendix

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, DETERMINANTS AND POLICY ANALYSIS: CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN

The objective of this study is to understand the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows and to quantify relevant policy shocks in dynamic econometric model for Pakistan economy. The study has highlighted the degree of attraction of cost related factors, investment environment factors, development strategy factors with ownership and internalization factors and other risk factors of recent FDI flows to Pakistan economy. The results show the investment environment improving factors-openness is statistically significant in short-run. While long run dynamics between FDI, openness and macro economic factors show consistency with short run results. The stable macro economic indicators, country’s risk profile followed by cost related and investment environment improving factors are real determinants to attract FDI.

Modest growth ahead

We conduct an analysis on Booking Holdings, Inc. and the Online Travel Market in which it operates to understand the trends opportunities and risks driving the market. Following this analysis, we focus on a Discounted Cash Flow model to derive a forecasted stock price for Booking Holdings, Inc. as of December 2020

Exploring the Synergy Between Financial Technologies and Financial Inclusion: What We Know and Where We Should Be Heading?

Background: Innovative financial technologies (fintech) are gradually changing how financial transactions and processes are conducted. The adoption of fintech not only benefits the financial sector but can also have a broader impact on society. Due to their ability to provide customized services to a wide range of stakeholders, fintech is gaining traction and experiencing significant growth. Compared to traditional financial institutions, fintech companies can reach a wider audience and operate more efficiently. In addition to upending traditional financial services, fintech can also provide financial services to marginalized groups. We argue that fintech research and practice should focus on seizing opportunities and addressing challenges related to financial inclusion, especially in emerging markets. Method: We conducted a systematic literature review of 178 articles to understand the relationship between fintech and financial inclusion. Results: Our analysis highlights six fintech research themes: fintech and financial inclusion, fintech adoption and use, fintech and sectoral growth, fintech and lending, and technology shaping the fintech. We also present four future themes (basic, driving, niche, and emerging or declining research) that can accelerate financial inclusion. Conclusions: This study highlights the synergies between fintech and financial inclusion research. This study contributes to existing knowledge in three ways. First, the descriptive analysis maps existing research on fintech and financial inclusion. Second, the qualitative analysis provides a comprehensive overview of how fintech and financial inclusion topics is interconnected. Third, future research areas for fintech and financial inclusion were identified. In general, fintech democratizes financial inclusion for the unbanked and marginalized communities while reducing operating costs. Governments should promote financial inclusion among those most vulnerable and affected by global threats