2,807 research outputs found
Short-term hydrological drought forecasting based on different nature-inspired optimization algorithms hybridized with artificial neural networks
Hydrological drought forecasting plays a substantial role in water resources management. Hydrological drought highly affects the water allocation and hydropower generation. In this research, short term hydrological drought forecasted based on the hybridized of novel nature-inspired optimization algorithms and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). For this purpose, the Standardized Hydrological Drought Index (SHDI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were calculated in one, three, and six aggregated months. Then, three states where proposed for SHDI forecasting, and 36 input-output combinations were extracted based on the cross-correlation analysis. In the next step, newly proposed optimization algorithms, including Grasshopper Optimization Algorithm (GOA), Salp Swarm algorithm (SSA), Biogeography-based optimization (BBO), and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) hybridized with the ANN were utilized for SHDI forecasting and the results compared to the conventional ANN. Results indicated that the hybridized model outperformed compared to the conventional ANN. PSO performed better than the other optimization algorithms. The best models forecasted SHDI1 with R2 = 0.68 and RMSE = 0.58, SHDI3 with R 2 = 0.81 and RMSE = 0.45 and SHDI6 with R 2 = 0.82 and RMSE = 0.40
Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach
In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market,
considering a time horizon of one week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm
optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity
market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of
previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally,
conclusions are duly drawn.
© 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved
Load Forecasting Based Distribution System Network Reconfiguration-A Distributed Data-Driven Approach
In this paper, a short-term load forecasting approach based network
reconfiguration is proposed in a parallel manner. Specifically, a support
vector regression (SVR) based short-term load forecasting approach is designed
to provide an accurate load prediction and benefit the network reconfiguration.
Because of the nonconvexity of the three-phase balanced optimal power flow, a
second-order cone program (SOCP) based approach is used to relax the optimal
power flow problem. Then, the alternating direction method of multipliers
(ADMM) is used to compute the optimal power flow in distributed manner.
Considering the limited number of the switches and the increasing computation
capability, the proposed network reconfiguration is solved in a parallel way.
The numerical results demonstrate the feasible and effectiveness of the
proposed approach.Comment: 5 pages, preprint for Asilomar Conference on Signals, Systems, and
Computers 201
Improved particle swarm optimization algorithms for economic load dispatch considering electric market
Economic load dispatch problem under the competitive electric market (ELDCEM) is becoming a hot problem that receives a big interest from researchers. A lot of measures are proposed to deal with the problem. In this paper, three versions of PSO method such as conventional particle swarm optimization (PSO), PSO with inertia weight (IWPSO) and PSO with constriction factor (CFPSO) are applied for handling ELDCEM problem. The core duty of the PSO methods is to determine the most optimal power output of generators to obtain total profit as much as possible for generation companies without violation of constraints. These methods are tested on three and ten-unit systems considering payment model for power delivered and different constraints. Results obtained from the PSO methods are compared with each other to evaluate the effectiveness and robustness. As results, IWPSO method is superior to other methods. Besides, comparing the PSO methods with other reported methods also gives a conclusion that IWPSO method is a very strong tool for solving ELDCEM problem because it can obtain the highest profit, fast converge speed and simulation time
Forecasting bus passenger flows by using a clustering-based support vector regression approach
As a significant component of the intelligent transportation system, forecasting bus passenger
flows plays a key role in resource allocation, network planning, and frequency setting. However, it remains
challenging to recognize high fluctuations, nonlinearity, and periodicity of bus passenger flows due to
varied destinations and departure times. For this reason, a novel forecasting model named as affinity
propagation-based support vector regression (AP-SVR) is proposed based on clustering and nonlinear
simulation. For the addressed approach, a clustering algorithm is first used to generate clustering-based
intervals. A support vector regression (SVR) is then exploited to forecast the passenger flow for each
cluster, with the use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) for obtaining the optimized parameters. Finally,
the prediction results of the SVR are rearranged by chronological order rearrangement. The proposed model
is tested using real bus passenger data from a bus line over four months. Experimental results demonstrate
that the proposed model performs better than other peer models in terms of absolute percentage error and
mean absolute percentage error. It is recommended that the deterministic clustering technique with stable
cluster results (AP) can improve the forecasting performance significantly.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio
PSO based Neural Networks vs. Traditional Statistical Models for Seasonal Time Series Forecasting
Seasonality is a distinctive characteristic which is often observed in many
practical time series. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are a class of
promising models for efficiently recognizing and forecasting seasonal patterns.
In this paper, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) approach is used to
enhance the forecasting strengths of feedforward ANN (FANN) as well as Elman
ANN (EANN) models for seasonal data. Three widely popular versions of the basic
PSO algorithm, viz. Trelea-I, Trelea-II and Clerc-Type1 are considered here.
The empirical analysis is conducted on three real-world seasonal time series.
Results clearly show that each version of the PSO algorithm achieves notably
better forecasting accuracies than the standard Backpropagation (BP) training
method for both FANN and EANN models. The neural network forecasting results
are also compared with those from the three traditional statistical models,
viz. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Holt-Winters
(HW) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The comparison demonstrates that both
PSO and BP based neural networks outperform SARIMA, HW and SVM models for all
three time series datasets. The forecasting performances of ANNs are further
improved through combining the outputs from the three PSO based models.Comment: 4 figures, 4 tables, 31 references, conference proceeding
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