Fluid Model Checking

In this paper we investigate a potential use of fluid approximation techniques in the context of stochastic model checking of CSL formulae. We focus on properties describing the behaviour of a single agent in a (large) population of agents, exploiting a limit result known also as fast simulation. In particular, we will approximate the behaviour of a single agent with a time-inhomogeneous CTMC which depends on the environment and on the other agents only through the solution of the fluid differential equation. We will prove the asymptotic correctness of our approach in terms of satisfiability of CSL formulae and of reachability probabilities. We will also present a procedure to model check time-inhomogeneous CTMC against CSL formulae

Fluid Model Checking of Timed Properties

We address the problem of verifying timed properties of Markovian models of large populations of interacting agents, modelled as finite state automata. In particular, we focus on time-bounded properties of (random) individual agents specified by Deterministic Timed Automata (DTA) endowed with a single clock. Exploiting ideas from fluid approximation, we estimate the satisfaction probability of the DTA properties by reducing it to the computation of the transient probability of a subclass of Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Renewal Processes with exponentially and deterministically-timed transitions, and a small state space. For this subclass of models, we show how to derive a set of Delay Differential Equations (DDE), whose numerical solution provides a fast and accurate estimate of the satisfaction probability. In the paper, we also prove the asymptotic convergence of the approach, and exemplify the method on a simple epidemic spreading model. Finally, we also show how to construct a system of DDEs to efficiently approximate the average number of agents that satisfy the DTA specification

Finding Streams in Knowledge Graphs to Support Fact Checking

The volume and velocity of information that gets generated online limits current journalistic practices to fact-check claims at the same rate. Computational approaches for fact checking may be the key to help mitigate the risks of massive misinformation spread. Such approaches can be designed to not only be scalable and effective at assessing veracity of dubious claims, but also to boost a human fact checker's productivity by surfacing relevant facts and patterns to aid their analysis. To this end, we present a novel, unsupervised network-flow based approach to determine the truthfulness of a statement of fact expressed in the form of a (subject, predicate, object) triple. We view a knowledge graph of background information about real-world entities as a flow network, and knowledge as a fluid, abstract commodity. We show that computational fact checking of such a triple then amounts to finding a "knowledge stream" that emanates from the subject node and flows toward the object node through paths connecting them. Evaluation on a range of real-world and hand-crafted datasets of facts related to entertainment, business, sports, geography and more reveals that this network-flow model can be very effective in discerning true statements from false ones, outperforming existing algorithms on many test cases. Moreover, the model is expressive in its ability to automatically discover several useful path patterns and surface relevant facts that may help a human fact checker corroborate or refute a claim.Comment: Extended version of the paper in proceedings of ICDM 201

Efficient Checking of Individual Rewards Properties in Markov Population Models

In recent years fluid approaches to the analysis of Markov populations models have been demonstrated to have great pragmatic value. Initially developed to estimate the behaviour of the system in terms of the expected values of population counts, the fluid approach has subsequently been extended to more sophisticated interrogations of models through its embedding within model checking procedures. In this paper we extend recent work on checking CSL properties of individual agents within a Markovian population model, to consider the checking of properties which incorporate rewards.Comment: In Proceedings QAPL 2015, arXiv:1509.0816

On Formal Methods for Collective Adaptive System Engineering. {Scalable Approximated, Spatial} Analysis Techniques. Extended Abstract

In this extended abstract a view on the role of Formal Methods in System Engineering is briefly presented. Then two examples of useful analysis techniques based on solid mathematical theories are discussed as well as the software tools which have been built for supporting such techniques. The first technique is Scalable Approximated Population DTMC Model-checking. The second one is Spatial Model-checking for Closure Spaces. Both techniques have been developed in the context of the EU funded project QUANTICOL.Comment: In Proceedings FORECAST 2016, arXiv:1607.0200

Model Checking Single Agent Behaviours by Fluid Approximation

In this paper we investigate a potential use of fluid approximation techniques in the context of stochastic model checking of CSL formulae. We focus on properties describing the behaviour of a single agent in a (large) population of agents, exploiting a limit result known also as fast simulation. In particular, we will approximate the behaviour of a single agent with a time-inhomogeneous CTMC, which depends on the environment and on the other agents only through the solution of the fluid differential equation, and model check this process. We will prove the asymptotic correctness of our approach in terms of satisfiability of CSL formulae. We will also present a procedure to model check time-inhomogeneous CTMC against CSL formulae

Applying Mean-field Approximation to Continuous Time Markov Chains

The mean-field analysis technique is used to perform analysis of a systems with a large number of components to determine the emergent deterministic behaviour and how this behaviour modifies when its parameters are perturbed. The computer science performance modelling and analysis community has found the mean-field method useful for modelling large-scale computer and communication networks. Applying mean-field analysis from the computer science perspective requires the following major steps: (1) describing how the agents populations evolve by means of a system of differential equations, (2) finding the emergent deterministic behaviour of the system by solving such differential equations, and (3) analysing properties of this behaviour either by relying on simulation or by using logics. Depending on the system under analysis, performing these steps may become challenging. Often, modifications of the general idea are needed. In this tutorial we consider illustrating examples to discuss how the mean-field method is used in different application areas. Starting from the application of the classical technique, moving to cases where additional steps have to be used, such as systems with local communication. Finally we illustrate the application of the simulation and uid model checking analysis techniques