5,218 research outputs found
Dynamical patterns of epidemic outbreaks in complex heterogeneous networks
We present a thorough inspection of the dynamical behavior of epidemic
phenomena in populations with complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns.
We show that the growth of the epidemic prevalence is virtually instantaneous
in all networks characterized by diverging degree fluctuations, independently
of the structure of the connectivity correlation functions characterizing the
population network. By means of analytical and numerical results, we show that
the outbreak time evolution follows a precise hierarchical dynamics. Once
reached the most highly connected hubs, the infection pervades the network in a
progressive cascade across smaller degree classes. Finally, we show the
influence of the initial conditions and the relevance of statistical results in
single case studies concerning heterogeneous networks. The emerging theoretical
framework appears of general interest in view of the recently observed
abundance of natural networks with complex topological features and might
provide useful insights for the development of adaptive strategies aimed at
epidemic containment.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figure
Circular Stochastic Fluctuations in SIS Epidemics with Heterogeneous Contacts Among Sub-populations
The conceptual difference between equilibrium and non-equilibrium steady
state (NESS) is well established in physics and chemistry. This distinction,
however, is not widely appreciated in dynamical descriptions of biological
populations in terms of differential equations in which fixed point, steady
state, and equilibrium are all synonymous. We study NESS in a stochastic SIS
(susceptible-infectious-susceptible) system with heterogeneous individuals in
their contact behavior represented in terms of subgroups. In the infinite
population limit, the stochastic dynamics yields a system of deterministic
evolution equations for population densities; and for very large but finite
system a diffusion process is obtained. We report the emergence of a circular
dynamics in the diffusion process, with an intrinsic frequency, near the
endemic steady state. The endemic steady state is represented by a stable node
in the deterministic dynamics; As a NESS phenomenon, the circular motion is
caused by the intrinsic heterogeneity within the subgroups, leading to a broken
symmetry and time irreversibility.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figure
Maximal Sensitive Dependence and the Optimal Path to Epidemic Extinction
Extinction of an epidemic or a species is a rare event that occurs due to a
large, rare stochastic fluctuation. Although the extinction process is
dynamically unstable, it follows an optimal path that maximizes the probability
of extinction. We show that the optimal path is also directly related to the
finite-time Lyapunov exponents of the underlying dynamical system in that the
optimal path displays maximum sensitivity to initial conditions. We consider
several stochastic epidemic models, and examine the extinction process in a
dynamical systems framework. Using the dynamics of the finite-time Lyapunov
exponents as a constructive tool, we demonstrate that the dynamical systems
viewpoint of extinction evolves naturally toward the optimal path.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures, Final revision to appear in Bulletin of
Mathematical Biolog
Fluctuation effects in metapopulation models: percolation and pandemic threshold
Metapopulation models provide the theoretical framework for describing
disease spread between different populations connected by a network. In
particular, these models are at the basis of most simulations of pandemic
spread. They are usually studied at the mean-field level by neglecting
fluctuations. Here we include fluctuations in the models by adopting fully
stochastic descriptions of the corresponding processes. This level of
description allows to address analytically, in the SIS and SIR cases, problems
such as the existence and the calculation of an effective threshold for the
spread of a disease at a global level. We show that the possibility of the
spread at the global level is described in terms of (bond) percolation on the
network. This mapping enables us to give an estimate (lower bound) for the
pandemic threshold in the SIR case for all values of the model parameters and
for all possible networks.Comment: 14 pages, 13 figures, final versio
Epidemic processes in complex networks
In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence
for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide
range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of
real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and
nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of
epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of
dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic
spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel
analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical
relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity
concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful
theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear.
Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists
share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar
models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and
innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the
paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results
concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally,
the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in
coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.Comment: 62 pages, 15 figures, final versio
Epidemic spreading on preferred degree adaptive networks
We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where
individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree
. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks,
we find some unusual statistical properties not found in familiar
Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi or scale free networks. By letting depend on the
fraction of infected individuals, we model the behavioral changes in response
to how the extent of the epidemic is perceived. In our models, the behavioral
adaptations can be either `blind' or `selective' -- depending on whether a node
adapts by cutting or adding links to randomly chosen partners or selectively,
based on the state of the partner. For a frozen preferred network, we find that
the infection threshold follows the heterogeneous mean field result
and the phase diagram matches the predictions of
the annealed adjacency matrix (AAM) approach. With `blind' adaptations,
although the epidemic threshold remains unchanged, the infection level is
substantially affected, depending on the details of the adaptation. The
`selective' adaptive SIS models are most interesting. Both the threshold and
the level of infection changes, controlled not only by how the adaptations are
implemented but also how often the nodes cut/add links (compared to the time
scales of the epidemic spreading). A simple mean field theory is presented for
the selective adaptations which capture the qualitative and some of the
quantitative features of the infection phase diagram.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figure
Epidemic spreading in complex networks with degree correlations
We review the behavior of epidemic spreading on complex networks in which
there are explicit correlations among the degrees of connected vertices.Comment: Contribution to the Proceedings of the XVIII Sitges Conference
"Statistical Mechanics of Complex Networks", eds. J.M. Rubi et, al (Springer
Verlag, Berlin, 2003
Disease Localization in Multilayer Networks
We present a continuous formulation of epidemic spreading on multilayer
networks using a tensorial representation, extending the models of monoplex
networks to this context. We derive analytical expressions for the epidemic
threshold of the SIS and SIR dynamics, as well as upper and lower bounds for
the disease prevalence in the steady state for the SIS scenario. Using the
quasi-stationary state method we numerically show the existence of disease
localization and the emergence of two or more susceptibility peaks, which are
characterized analytically and numerically through the inverse participation
ratio. Furthermore, when mapping the critical dynamics to an eigenvalue
problem, we observe a characteristic transition in the eigenvalue spectra of
the supra-contact tensor as a function of the ratio of two spreading rates: if
the rate at which the disease spreads within a layer is comparable to the
spreading rate across layers, the individual spectra of each layer merge with
the coupling between layers. Finally, we verified the barrier effect, i.e., for
three-layer configuration, when the layer with the largest eigenvalue is
located at the center of the line, it can effectively act as a barrier to the
disease. The formalism introduced here provides a unifying mathematical
approach to disease contagion in multiplex systems opening new possibilities
for the study of spreading processes.Comment: Revised version. 25 pages and 18 figure
Epidemic dynamics in finite size scale-free networks
Many real networks present a bounded scale-free behavior with a connectivity
cut-off due to physical constraints or a finite network size. We study epidemic
dynamics in bounded scale-free networks with soft and hard connectivity
cut-offs. The finite size effects introduced by the cut-off induce an epidemic
threshold that approaches zero at increasing sizes. The induced epidemic
threshold is very small even at a relatively small cut-off, showing that the
neglection of connectivity fluctuations in bounded scale-free networks leads to
a strong over-estimation of the epidemic threshold. We provide the expression
for the infection prevalence and discuss its finite size corrections. The
present work shows that the highly heterogeneous nature of scale-free networks
does not allow the use of homogeneous approximations even for systems of a
relatively small number of nodes.Comment: 4 pages, 2 eps figure
Early warning signs for saddle-escape transitions in complex networks
Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions,
leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The
development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent
progress builds on a mathematical framework in which a real-world system is
described by a low-dimensional equation system with a small number of key
variables, where the critical transition often corresponds to a bifurcation.
Here we show that in high-dimensional systems, containing many variables, we
frequently encounter an additional non-bifurcative saddle-type mechanism
leading to critical transitions. This generic class of transitions has been
missed in the search for early-warnings up to now. In fact, the saddle-type
mechanism also applies to low-dimensional systems with saddle-dynamics. Near a
saddle a system moves slowly and the state may be perceived as stable over
substantial time periods. We develop an early warning sign for the saddle-type
transition. We illustrate our results in two network models and epidemiological
data. This work thus establishes a connection from critical transitions to
networks and an early warning sign for a new type of critical transition. In
complex models and big data we anticipate that saddle-transitions will be
encountered frequently in the future.Comment: revised versio
- …