Flood susceptibility assessment using artificial neural networks in Indonesia

Flood incidents can massively damage and disrupt a city economic or governing core. However, flood risk can be mitigated through event planning and city-wide preparation to reduce damage. For, governments, firms, and civilians to make such preparations, flood susceptibility predictions are required. To predict flood susceptibility nine environmental related factors have been identified. They are elevation, slope, curvature, topographical wetness index (TWI), Euclidean distance from a river, land-cover, stream power index (SPI), soil type and precipitation. This work will use these environmental related factors alongside Sentinel-1 satellite imagery in a model intercomparison study to back-predict flood susceptibility in Jakarta for the January 2020 historic flood event across 260 key locations. For each location, this study uses current environmental conditions to predict flood status in the following month. Considering the imbalance between instances of flooded and non-flooded conditions, the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) has been implemented to balance both classes in the training set. This work compares predictions from artificial neural networks (ANN), k-Nearest Neighbors algorithms (k-NN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) against a random baseline. The effects of the SMOTE are also assessed by training each model on balanced and imbalanced datasets. The ANN is found to be superior to the other machine learning models

Challenges and Technical Advances in Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWSs)

Flood early warning systems (FEWSs)—one of the most common flood-impact mitigation measures—are currently in operation globally. The UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) strongly advocates for an increase in their availability to reach the targets of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Comprehensive FEWS consists of four components, which includes (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and forecasting, (3) warning, dissemination, and communication, and (4) response capabilities. Operational FEWSs have varying levels of complexity, depending on available data, adopted technology, and know-how. There are apparent differences in sophistication between FEWSs in developed countries that have the financial capabilities, technological infrastructure, and human resources and developing countries where FEWSs tend to be less advanced. Fortunately, recent advances in remote sensing, artificial intelligence (AI), information technologies, and social media are leading to significant changes in the mechanisms of FEWSs and provide the opportunity for all FEWSs to gain additional capability. These technologies are an opportunity for developing countries to overcome the technical limitations that FEWSs have faced so far. This chapter aims to discuss the challenges in FEWSs in brief and exposes technological advances and their benefits in flood forecasting and disaster mitigation

REMOTE SENSING DATA ANALYSIS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL AND HUMANITARIAN PURPOSES. The automation of information extraction from free satellite data.

This work is aimed at investigating technical possibilities to provide information on environmental parameters that can be used for risk management. The World food Program (WFP) is the United Nations Agency which is involved in risk management for fighting hunger in least-developed and low-income countries, where victims of natural and manmade disasters, refugees, displaced people and the hungry poor suffer from severe food shortages. Risk management includes three different phases (pre-disaster, response and post disaster) to be managed through different activities and actions. Pre disaster activities are meant to develop and deliver risk assessment, establish prevention actions and prepare the operative structures for managing an eventual emergency or disaster. In response and post disaster phase actions planned in the pre-disaster phase are executed focusing on saving lives and secondly, on social economic recovery. In order to optimally manage its operations in the response and post disaster phases, WFP needs to know, in order to estimate the impact an event will have on future food security as soon as possible, the areas affected by the natural disaster, the number of affected people, and the effects that the event can cause to vegetation. For this, providing easy-to-consult thematic maps about the affected areas and population, with adequate spatial resolution, time frequency and regular updating can result determining. Satellite remote sensed data have increasingly been used in the last decades in order to provide updated information about land surface with an acceptable time frequency. Furthermore, satellite images can be managed by automatic procedures in order to extract synthetic information about the ground condition in a very short time and can be easily shared in the web. The work of thesis, focused on the analysis and processing of satellite data, was carried out in cooperation with the association ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action), a center of research which works in cooperation with the WFP in order to provide IT products and tools for the management of food emergencies caused by natural disasters. These products should be able to facilitate the forecasting of the effects of catastrophic events, the estimation of the extension and location of the areas hit by the event, of the affected population and thereby the planning of interventions on the area that could be affected by food insecurity. The requested features of the instruments are: • Regular updating • Spatial resolution suitable for a synoptic analysis • Low cost • Easy consultation Ithaca is developing different activities to provide georeferenced thematic data to WFP users, such a spatial data infrastructure for storing, querying and manipulating large amounts of global geographic information, and for sharing it between a large and differentiated community; a system of early warning for floods, a drought monitoring tool, procedures for rapid mapping in the response phase in a case of natural disaster, web GIS tools to distribute and share georeferenced information, that can be consulted only by means of a web browser. The work of thesis is aimed at providing applications for the automatic production of base georeferenced thematic data, by using free global satellite data, which have characteristics suitable for analysis at a regional scale. In particular the main themes of the applications are water bodies and vegetation phenology. The first application aims at providing procedures for the automatic extraction of water bodies and will lead to the creation and update of an historical archive, which can be analyzed in order to catch the seasonality of water bodies and delineate scenarios of historical flooded areas. The automatic extraction of phenological parameters from satellite data will allow to integrate the existing drought monitoring system with information on vegetation seasonality and to provide further information for the evaluation of food insecurity in the post disaster phase. In the thesis are described the activities carried on for the development of procedures for the automatic processing of free satellite data in order to produce customized layers according to the exigencies in format and distribution of the final users. The main activities, which focused on the development of an automated procedure for the extraction of flooded areas, include the research of an algorithm for the classification of water bodies from satellite data, an important theme in the field of management of the emergencies due to flood events. Two main technologies are generally used: active sensors (radar) and passive sensors (optical data). Advantages for active sensors include the ability to obtain measurements anytime, regardless of the time of day or season, while passive sensors can only be used in the daytime cloud free conditions. Even if with radar technologies is possible to get information on the ground in all weather conditions, it is not possible to use radar data to obtain a continuous archive of flooded areas, because of the lack of a predetermined frequency in the acquisition of the images. For this reason the choice of the dataset went in favor of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), optical data with a daily frequency, a spatial resolution of 250 meters and an historical archive of 10 years. The presence of cloud coverage prevents from the acquisition of the earth surface, and the shadows due to clouds can be wrongly classified as water bodies because of the spectral response very similar to the one of water. After an analysis of the state of the art of the algorithms of automated classification of water bodies in images derived from optical sensors, the author developed an algorithm that allows to classify the data of reflectivity and to temporally composite them in order to obtain flooded areas scenarios for each event. This procedure was tested in the Bangladesh areas, providing encouraging classification accuracies. For the vegetation theme, the main activities performed, here described, include the review of the existing methodologies for phenological studies and the automation of the data flow between inputs and outputs with the use of different global free satellite datasets. In literature, many studies demonstrated the utility of the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) indices for the monitoring of vegetation dynamics, in the study of cultivations, and for the survey of the vegetation water stress. The author developed a procedure for creating layers of phenological parameters which integrates the TIMESAT software, produced by Lars Eklundh and Per Jönsson, for processing NDVI indices derived from different satellite sensors: MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) AND SPOT (Système Pour l'Observation de la Terre) VEGETATION. The automated procedure starts from data downloading, calls in a batch mode the software and provides customized layers of phenological parameters such as the starting of the season or length of the season and many others

A reference data access service in support of emergency management

In the field of natural disasters recovery and reduction and of emergency management georeferenced information is strongly needed. In my personal experience obtained in the three years period spent at ITHACA, during the shorter at GFDRR Labs and through the work done indirectly with UN-WFP, after a natural disaster occurs, the experts in geomatics are often asked to provide answers to questions such as: where did it occur? How many people have been involved? How many infrastructures have been damaged and to what extent? How much is the economical loss? Geomatics can give answer to all these questions or give significant help in addressing operations in order to get the answers. The goal can be reached both with the use of base reference data, the ones usually contained in the classic cartography, and by exploiting value added information coming from satellite and aerial data processing, classic surveys and GPS acquisition on the fiel

Sensor Networks and Their Applications: Investigating the Role of Sensor Web Enablement

The Engineering Doctorate (EngD) was conducted in conjunction with BT Research on state-of-the-art Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) projects. The first area of work is a literature review of WSN project applications, some of which the author worked on as a BT Researcher based at the world renowned Adastral Park Research Labs in Suffolk (2004-09). WSN applications are examined within the context of Machine-to-Machine (M2M); Information Networking (IN); Internet/Web of Things (IoT/WoT); smart home and smart devices; BT’s 21st Century Network (21CN); Cloud Computing; and future trends. In addition, this thesis provides an insight into the capabilities of similar external WSN project applications. Under BT’s Sensor Virtualization project, the second area of work focuses on building a Generic Architecture for WSNs with reusable infrastructure and ‘infostructure’ by identifying and trialling suitable components, in order to realise actual business benefits for BT. The third area of work focuses on the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards and their Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) initiative. The SWE framework was investigated to ascertain its potential as a component of the Generic Architecture. BT’s SAPHE project served as a use case. BT Research’s experiences of taking this traditional (vertical) stove-piped application and creating SWE compliant services are described. The author’s findings were originally presented in a series of publications and have been incorporated into this thesis along with supplementary WSN material from BT Research projects. SWE 2.0 specifications are outlined to highlight key improvements, since work began at BT with SWE 1.0. The fourth area of work focuses on Complex Event Processing (CEP) which was evaluated to ascertain its potential for aggregating and correlating the shared project sensor data (‘infostructure’) harvested and for enabling data fusion for WSNs in diverse domains. Finally, the conclusions and suggestions for further work are provided

Disaster management in smart cities

The smart city concept, in which data from different systems are available, contains a multitude of critical infrastructures. This data availability opens new research opportunities in the study of the interdependency between those critical infrastructures and cascading effects solutions and focuses on the smart city as a network of critical infrastructures. This paper proposes an integrated resilience system linking interconnected critical infrastructures in a smart city to improve disaster resilience. A data-driven approach is considered, using artificial intelligence and methods to minimize cascading effects and the destruction of failing critical infrastructures and their components (at a city level). The proposed approach allows rapid recovery of infrastructures’ service performance levels after disasters while keeping the coverage of the assessment of risks, prevention, detection, response, and mitigation of consequences. The proposed approach has the originality and the practical implication of providing a decision support system that handles the infrastructures that will support the city disaster management system—make the city prepare, adapt, absorb, respond, and recover from disasters by taking advantage of the interconnections between its various critical infrastructures to increase the overall resilience capacity. The city of Lisbon (Portugal) is used as a case to show the practical application of the approach.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Heat Waves and a Public-Private Partnership in Alaska

The recently-passed Inflation Reduction Act represents the largest single step that Congress has taken to combat harms from climate change. In its over $360 billion commitment, the Act incentivizes clean energy development and generation, includes methods to directly lower residential utility bills and increase home efficiency, promotes cleaner transportation and agricultural practices, and funds states\u27 and cities\u27 efforts to meet their individual climate goals. While many environmental organizations applauded the Act\u27s passage, some—even simultaneously—expressed concern about its tradeoffs: the Act continues to invest in fossil fuels, subsidizing pipeline construction and guaranteeing new oil and gas leases, specifically expanding leasing in Alaska\u27s Cook Inlet. Given the scope and magnitude of climate change, the need for legal and policy action will only accelerate. Some efforts may be large-scale and sweeping in nature, like the Inflation Reduction Act, while others may be more confined and issue-specific. Where the focus is on a narrower aspect of the problem, or on a particular localized need, opportunity exists for collaboration between public and private entities to provide solutions. So-called public private partnerships have long existed in this space, yet there are few case studies analyzing the effectiveness of such partnerships. This Article contributes to the conversation by providing one case study that demonstrates a method for assessing public-private partnerships in the context of climate change. Building on themes and principles from contract law and environmental justice literature, the Article identifies key characteristics of successful public-private partnerships and explains how participants in these partnerships could further environmental justice while also meeting partnership goals. The Article then applies its suggested framework to an existing public-private partnership in Alaska and describes how participants in these partnerships might want to structure, implement, and assess their success