A statistical learning based approach for parameter fine-tuning of metaheuristics

Metaheuristics are approximation methods used to solve combinatorial optimization problems. Their performance usually depends on a set of parameters that need to be adjusted. The selection of appropriate parameter values causes a loss of efficiency, as it requires time, and advanced analytical and problem-specific skills. This paper provides an overview of the principal approaches to tackle the Parameter Setting Problem, focusing on the statistical procedures employed so far by the scientific community. In addition, a novel methodology is proposed, which is tested using an already existing algorithm for solving the Multi-Depot Vehicle Routing Problem.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Spatial-temporal data modelling and processing for personalised decision support

The purpose of this research is to undertake the modelling of dynamic data without losing any of the temporal relationships, and to be able to predict likelihood of outcome as far in advance of actual occurrence as possible. To this end a novel computational architecture for personalised ( individualised) modelling of spatio-temporal data based on spiking neural network methods (PMeSNNr), with a three dimensional visualisation of relationships between variables is proposed. In brief, the architecture is able to transfer spatio-temporal data patterns from a multidimensional input stream into internal patterns in the spiking neural network reservoir. These patterns are then analysed to produce a personalised model for either classification or prediction dependent on the specific needs of the situation. The architecture described above was constructed using MatLab© in several individual modules linked together to form NeuCube (M1). This methodology has been applied to two real world case studies. Firstly, it has been applied to data for the prediction of stroke occurrences on an individual basis. Secondly, it has been applied to ecological data on aphid pest abundance prediction. Two main objectives for this research when judging outcomes of the modelling are accurate prediction and to have this at the earliest possible time point. The implications of these findings are not insignificant in terms of health care management and environmental control. As the case studies utilised here represent vastly different application fields, it reveals more of the potential and usefulness of NeuCube (M1) for modelling data in an integrated manner. This in turn can identify previously unknown (or less understood) interactions thus both increasing the level of reliance that can be placed on the model created, and enhancing our human understanding of the complexities of the world around us without the need for over simplification. Read less Keywords Personalised modelling; Spiking neural network; Spatial-temporal data modelling; Computational intelligence; Predictive modelling; Stroke risk predictio

Spatial-temporal data modelling and processing for personalised decision support

The purpose of this research is to undertake the modelling of dynamic data without losing any of the temporal relationships, and to be able to predict likelihood of outcome as far in advance of actual occurrence as possible. To this end a novel computational architecture for personalised ( individualised) modelling of spatio-temporal data based on spiking neural network methods (PMeSNNr), with a three dimensional visualisation of relationships between variables is proposed. In brief, the architecture is able to transfer spatio-temporal data patterns from a multidimensional input stream into internal patterns in the spiking neural network reservoir. These patterns are then analysed to produce a personalised model for either classification or prediction dependent on the specific needs of the situation. The architecture described above was constructed using MatLab© in several individual modules linked together to form NeuCube (M1). This methodology has been applied to two real world case studies. Firstly, it has been applied to data for the prediction of stroke occurrences on an individual basis. Secondly, it has been applied to ecological data on aphid pest abundance prediction. Two main objectives for this research when judging outcomes of the modelling are accurate prediction and to have this at the earliest possible time point. The implications of these findings are not insignificant in terms of health care management and environmental control. As the case studies utilised here represent vastly different application fields, it reveals more of the potential and usefulness of NeuCube (M1) for modelling data in an integrated manner. This in turn can identify previously unknown (or less understood) interactions thus both increasing the level of reliance that can be placed on the model created, and enhancing our human understanding of the complexities of the world around us without the need for over simplification. Read less Keywords Personalised modelling; Spiking neural network; Spatial-temporal data modelling; Computational intelligence; Predictive modelling; Stroke risk predictio

Machine learning and its applications in reliability analysis systems

In this thesis, we are interested in exploring some aspects of Machine Learning (ML) and its application in the Reliability Analysis systems (RAs). We begin by investigating some ML paradigms and their- techniques, go on to discuss the possible applications of ML in improving RAs performance, and lastly give guidelines of the architecture of learning RAs. Our survey of ML covers both levels of Neural Network learning and Symbolic learning. In symbolic process learning, five types of learning and their applications are discussed: rote learning, learning from instruction, learning from analogy, learning from examples, and learning from observation and discovery. The Reliability Analysis systems (RAs) presented in this thesis are mainly designed for maintaining plant safety supported by two functions: risk analysis function, i.e., failure mode effect analysis (FMEA) ; and diagnosis function, i.e., real-time fault location (RTFL). Three approaches have been discussed in creating the RAs. According to the result of our survey, we suggest currently the best design of RAs is to embed model-based RAs, i.e., MORA (as software) in a neural network based computer system (as hardware). However, there are still some improvement which can be made through the applications of Machine Learning. By implanting the 'learning element', the MORA will become learning MORA (La MORA) system, a learning Reliability Analysis system with the power of automatic knowledge acquisition and inconsistency checking, and more. To conclude our thesis, we propose an architecture of La MORA

Herbert Simon's decision-making approach: Investigation of cognitive processes in experts

This is a post print version of the article. The official published can be obtained from the links below - PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.Herbert Simon's research endeavor aimed to understand the processes that participate in human decision making. However, despite his effort to investigate this question, his work did not have the impact in the “decision making” community that it had in other fields. His rejection of the assumption of perfect rationality, made in mainstream economics, led him to develop the concept of bounded rationality. Simon's approach also emphasized the limitations of the cognitive system, the change of processes due to expertise, and the direct empirical study of cognitive processes involved in decision making. In this article, we argue that his subsequent research program in problem solving and expertise offered critical tools for studying decision-making processes that took into account his original notion of bounded rationality. Unfortunately, these tools were ignored by the main research paradigms in decision making, such as Tversky and Kahneman's biased rationality approach (also known as the heuristics and biases approach) and the ecological approach advanced by Gigerenzer and others. We make a proposal of how to integrate Simon's approach with the main current approaches to decision making. We argue that this would lead to better models of decision making that are more generalizable, have higher ecological validity, include specification of cognitive processes, and provide a better understanding of the interaction between the characteristics of the cognitive system and the contingencies of the environment

Decision-making and problem-solving methods in automation technology

The state of the art in the automation of decision making and problem solving is reviewed. The information upon which the report is based was derived from literature searches, visits to university and government laboratories performing basic research in the area, and a 1980 Langley Research Center sponsored conferences on the subject. It is the contention of the authors that the technology in this area is being generated by research primarily in the three disciplines of Artificial Intelligence, Control Theory, and Operations Research. Under the assumption that the state of the art in decision making and problem solving is reflected in the problems being solved, specific problems and methods of their solution are often discussed to elucidate particular aspects of the subject. Synopses of the following major topic areas comprise most of the report: (1) detection and recognition; (2) planning; and scheduling; (3) learning; (4) theorem proving; (5) distributed systems; (6) knowledge bases; (7) search; (8) heuristics; and (9) evolutionary programming