A Bayesian Framework for Parameter Estimation in Dynamical Models with Applications to Forecasting

Mathematical models in Biology are powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics. Nevertheless, bringing theoretical results to an agreement with experimental observations involves acknowledging a great deal of uncertainty intrinsic to our theoretical representation of a real system.
Proper handling of such uncertainties, is key to the successful usage of models to predict experimental or field observations. This problem has been addressed over the years by many tools for model calibration an parameter estimation. In this article we present a general framework for uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation which is designed to handle uncertainties associated with the modeling of dynamic biological systems while remaining agnostic as to the type of model used. We apply the framework to two Influenza transmission models: one deterministic and the other stochastic. The results show that the framework can be applied without modifications to the two types of models and that it performs equally well on both. We also discuss the application of the framework to calibrate models for forecasting purposes.
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A new automated workflow for 3D character creation based on 3D scanned data

In this paper we present a new workflow allowing the creation of 3D characters in an automated way that does not require the expertise of an animator. This workflow is based of the acquisition of real human data captured by 3D body scanners, which is them processed to generate firstly animatable body meshes, secondly skinned body meshes and finally textured 3D garments

Multiple-sensor integration for efficient reverse engineering of geometry

This paper describes a multi-sensor measuring system for reverse engineering applications. A sphere-plate artefact is developed for data unification of the hybrid system. With the coordinate data acquired using the optical system, intelligent feature recognition and segmentation algorithms can be applied to extract the global surface information of the object. The coordinate measuring machine (CMM) is used to re-measure the geometric features with a small amount of sampling points and the obtained information can be subsequently used to compensate the point data patches which are measured by optical system. Then the optimized point data can be exploited for accurate reverse engineering of CAD model. The limitations of each measurement system are compensated by the other. Experimental results validate the accuracy and effectiveness of this data optimization approach

Learning Hybrid Process Models From Events: Process Discovery Without Faking Confidence

Process discovery techniques return process models that are either formal (precisely describing the possible behaviors) or informal (merely a "picture" not allowing for any form of formal reasoning). Formal models are able to classify traces (i.e., sequences of events) as fitting or non-fitting. Most process mining approaches described in the literature produce such models. This is in stark contrast with the over 25 available commercial process mining tools that only discover informal process models that remain deliberately vague on the precise set of possible traces. There are two main reasons why vendors resort to such models: scalability and simplicity. In this paper, we propose to combine the best of both worlds: discovering hybrid process models that have formal and informal elements. As a proof of concept we present a discovery technique based on hybrid Petri nets. These models allow for formal reasoning, but also reveal information that cannot be captured in mainstream formal models. A novel discovery algorithm returning hybrid Petri nets has been implemented in ProM and has been applied to several real-life event logs. The results clearly demonstrate the advantages of remaining "vague" when there is not enough "evidence" in the data or standard modeling constructs do not "fit". Moreover, the approach is scalable enough to be incorporated in industrial-strength process mining tools.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figure

A Framework for SAR-Optical Stereogrammetry over Urban Areas

Currently, numerous remote sensing satellites provide a huge volume of diverse earth observation data. As these data show different features regarding resolution, accuracy, coverage, and spectral imaging ability, fusion techniques are required to integrate the different properties of each sensor and produce useful information. For example, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data can be fused with optical imagery to produce 3D information using stereogrammetric methods. The main focus of this study is to investigate the possibility of applying a stereogrammetry pipeline to very-high-resolution (VHR) SAR-optical image pairs. For this purpose, the applicability of semi-global matching is investigated in this unconventional multi-sensor setting. To support the image matching by reducing the search space and accelerating the identification of correct, reliable matches, the possibility of establishing an epipolarity constraint for VHR SAR-optical image pairs is investigated as well. In addition, it is shown that the absolute geolocation accuracy of VHR optical imagery with respect to VHR SAR imagery such as provided by TerraSAR-X can be improved by a multi-sensor block adjustment formulation based on rational polynomial coefficients. Finally, the feasibility of generating point clouds with a median accuracy of about 2m is demonstrated and confirms the potential of 3D reconstruction from SAR-optical image pairs over urban areas.Comment: This is the pre-acceptance version, to read the final version, please go to ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing on ScienceDirec