Optimal Tests of Treatment Effects for the Overall Population and Two Subpopulations in Randomized Trials, using Sparse Linear Programming

We propose new, optimal methods for analyzing randomized trials, when it is suspected that treatment effects may differ in two predefined subpopulations. Such sub-populations could be defined by a biomarker or risk factor measured at baseline. The goal is to simultaneously learn which subpopulations benefit from an experimental treatment, while providing strong control of the familywise Type I error rate. We formalize this as a multiple testing problem and show it is computationally infeasible to solve using existing techniques. Our solution involves a novel approach, in which we first transform the original multiple testing problem into a large, sparse linear program. We then solve this problem using advanced optimization techniques. This general method can solve a variety of multiple testing problems and decision theory problems related to optimal trial design, for which no solution was previously available. In particular, we construct new multiple testing procedures that satisfy minimax and Bayes optimality criteria. For a given optimality criterion, our new approach yields the optimal tradeoff? between power to detect an effect in the overall population versus power to detect effects in subpopulations. We demonstrate our approach in examples motivated by two randomized trials of new treatments for HIV

Modeling Perceptual Aliasing in SLAM via Discrete-Continuous Graphical Models

Perceptual aliasing is one of the main causes of failure for Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) systems operating in the wild. Perceptual aliasing is the phenomenon where different places generate a similar visual (or, in general, perceptual) footprint. This causes spurious measurements to be fed to the SLAM estimator, which typically results in incorrect localization and mapping results. The problem is exacerbated by the fact that those outliers are highly correlated, in the sense that perceptual aliasing creates a large number of mutually-consistent outliers. Another issue stems from the fact that most state-of-the-art techniques rely on a given trajectory guess (e.g., from odometry) to discern between inliers and outliers and this makes the resulting pipeline brittle, since the accumulation of error may result in incorrect choices and recovery from failures is far from trivial. This work provides a unified framework to model perceptual aliasing in SLAM and provides practical algorithms that can cope with outliers without relying on any initial guess. We present two main contributions. The first is a Discrete-Continuous Graphical Model (DC-GM) for SLAM: the continuous portion of the DC-GM captures the standard SLAM problem, while the discrete portion describes the selection of the outliers and models their correlation. The second contribution is a semidefinite relaxation to perform inference in the DC-GM that returns estimates with provable sub-optimality guarantees. Experimental results on standard benchmarking datasets show that the proposed technique compares favorably with state-of-the-art methods while not relying on an initial guess for optimization.Comment: 13 pages, 14 figures, 1 tabl

The SOS Platform: Designing, Tuning and Statistically Benchmarking Optimisation Algorithms

open access articleWe present Stochastic Optimisation Software (SOS), a Java platform facilitating the algorithmic design process and the evaluation of metaheuristic optimisation algorithms. SOS reduces the burden of coding miscellaneous methods for dealing with several bothersome and time-demanding tasks such as parameter tuning, implementation of comparison algorithms and testbed problems, collecting and processing data to display results, measuring algorithmic overhead, etc. SOS provides numerous off-the-shelf methods including: (1) customised implementations of statistical tests, such as the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the Holm–Bonferroni procedure, for comparing the performances of optimisation algorithms and automatically generating result tables in PDF and formats; (2) the implementation of an original advanced statistical routine for accurately comparing couples of stochastic optimisation algorithms; (3) the implementation of a novel testbed suite for continuous optimisation, derived from the IEEE CEC 2014 benchmark, allowing for controlled activation of the rotation on each testbed function. Moreover, we briefly comment on the current state of the literature in stochastic optimisation and highlight similarities shared by modern metaheuristics inspired by nature. We argue that the vast majority of these algorithms are simply a reformulation of the same methods and that metaheuristics for optimisation should be simply treated as stochastic processes with less emphasis on the inspiring metaphor behind them

Optimal control of ankle joint moment: Toward unsupported standing in paraplegia

This paper considers part of the problem of how to provide unsupported standing for paraplegics by feedback control. In this work our overall objective is to stabilize the subject by stimulation only of his ankle joints while the other joints are braced, Here, we investigate the problem of ankle joint moment control. The ankle plantarflexion muscles are first identified with pseudorandom binary sequence (PRBS) signals, periodic sinusoidal signals, and twitches. The muscle is modeled in Hammerstein form as a static recruitment nonlinearity followed by a linear transfer function. A linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG)-optimal controller design procedure for ankle joint moment was proposed based on the polynomial equation formulation, The approach was verified by experiments in the special Wobbler apparatus with a neurologically intact subject, and these experimental results are reported. The controller structure is formulated in such a way that there are only two scalar design parameters, each of which has a clear physical interpretation. This facilitates fast controller synthesis and tuning in the laboratory environment. Experimental results show the effects of the controller tuning parameters: the control weighting and the observer response time, which determine closed-loop properties. Using these two parameters the tradeoff between disturbance rejection and measurement noise sensitivity can be straightforwardly balanced while maintaining a desired speed of tracking. The experimentally measured reference tracking, disturbance rejection, and noise sensitivity are good and agree with theoretical expectations

Informative Features for Model Comparison

Given two candidate models, and a set of target observations, we address the problem of measuring the relative goodness of fit of the two models. We propose two new statistical tests which are nonparametric, computationally efficient (runtime complexity is linear in the sample size), and interpretable. As a unique advantage, our tests can produce a set of examples (informative features) indicating the regions in the data domain where one model fits significantly better than the other. In a real-world problem of comparing GAN models, the test power of our new test matches that of the state-of-the-art test of relative goodness of fit, while being one order of magnitude faster.Comment: Accepted to NIPS 201