Fine-Grained Car Detection for Visual Census Estimation

Targeted socioeconomic policies require an accurate understanding of a country's demographic makeup. To that end, the United States spends more than 1 billion dollars a year gathering census data such as race, gender, education, occupation and unemployment rates. Compared to the traditional method of collecting surveys across many years which is costly and labor intensive, data-driven, machine learning driven approaches are cheaper and faster--with the potential ability to detect trends in close to real time. In this work, we leverage the ubiquity of Google Street View images and develop a computer vision pipeline to predict income, per capita carbon emission, crime rates and other city attributes from a single source of publicly available visual data. We first detect cars in 50 million images across 200 of the largest US cities and train a model to predict demographic attributes using the detected cars. To facilitate our work, we have collected the largest and most challenging fine-grained dataset reported to date consisting of over 2600 classes of cars comprised of images from Google Street View and other web sources, classified by car experts to account for even the most subtle of visual differences. We use this data to construct the largest scale fine-grained detection system reported to date. Our prediction results correlate well with ground truth income data (r=0.82), Massachusetts department of vehicle registration, and sources investigating crime rates, income segregation, per capita carbon emission, and other market research. Finally, we learn interesting relationships between cars and neighborhoods allowing us to perform the first large scale sociological analysis of cities using computer vision techniques.Comment: AAAI 201

INVESTIGATING CRIME-TO-TWITTER RELATIONSHIPS IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS - FACILITATING A VIRTUAL NEIGHBORHOOD WATCH

Social networks offer vast potential for marketing agencies, as members freely provide private information, for instance on their current situation, opinions, tastes, and feelings. The use of social networks to feed into crime platforms has been acknowledged to build a kind of a virtual neighborhood watch. Current attempts that tried to automatically connect news from social networks with crime platforms have concentrated on documentation of past events, but neglected the opportunity to use Twitter data as a decision support system to detect future crimes. In this work, we attempt to unleash the wisdom of crowds materialized in tweets from Twitter. This requires to look at Tweets that have been sent within a vicinity of each other. Based on the aggregated Tweets traffic we correlate them with crime types. Apparently, crimes such as disturbing the peace or homicide exhibit different Tweet patterns before the crime has been committed. We show that these tweet patterns can strengthen the explanation of criminal activity in urban areas. On top of that, we go beyond pure explanatory approaches and use predictive analytics to provide evidence that Twitter data can improve the prediction of crimes

Mining large-scale human mobility data for long-term crime prediction

Traditional crime prediction models based on census data are limited, as they fail to capture the complexity and dynamics of human activity. With the rise of ubiquitous computing, there is the opportunity to improve such models with data that make for better proxies of human presence in cities. In this paper, we leverage large human mobility data to craft an extensive set of features for crime prediction, as informed by theories in criminology and urban studies. We employ averaging and boosting ensemble techniques from machine learning, to investigate their power in predicting yearly counts for different types of crimes occurring in New York City at census tract level. Our study shows that spatial and spatio-temporal features derived from Foursquare venues and checkins, subway rides, and taxi rides, improve the baseline models relying on census and POI data. The proposed models achieve absolute R^2 metrics of up to 65% (on a geographical out-of-sample test set) and up to 89% (on a temporal out-of-sample test set). This proves that, next to the residential population of an area, the ambient population there is strongly predictive of the area's crime levels. We deep-dive into the main crime categories, and find that the predictive gain of the human dynamics features varies across crime types: such features bring the biggest boost in case of grand larcenies, whereas assaults are already well predicted by the census features. Furthermore, we identify and discuss top predictive features for the main crime categories. These results offer valuable insights for those responsible for urban policy or law enforcement