Pinning down the mass of Kepler-10c: the importance of sampling and model comparison

Initial RV characterisation of the enigmatic planet Kepler-10c suggested a mass of $\sim17$ M$_\oplus$, which was remarkably high for a planet with radius $2.32$ R$_\oplus$; further observations and subsequent analysis hinted at a (possibly much) lower mass, but masses derived using RVs from two different spectrographs (HARPS-N and HIRES) were incompatible at a $3\sigma$-level. We demonstrate here how such mass discrepancies may readily arise from sub-optimal sampling and/or neglecting to model even a single coherent signal (stellar, planetary, or otherwise) that may be present in RVs. We then present a plausible resolution of the mass discrepancy, and ultimately characterise Kepler-10c as having mass $7.37_{-1.19}^{+1.32}$ M$_\oplus$, and mean density $3.14^{+0.63}_{-0.55}$ g cm$^{-3}$.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS Letter

Efficacy of Cervical Mucus Observations Plus Electronic Hormonal Fertility Monitoring as a Method of Natural Family Planning

Objective: To determine the effectiveness of an electronic hormonal fertility monitor plus cervical mucus monitoring to avoid pregnancy. Design: A 12-month prospective clinical efficacy trial. Setting and Participants: One hundred ninety five (195) women (mean age 29.8 years) seeking to avoid pregnancy with a natural method at 5 clinical sites in 4 cities. Intervention: Each participant was taught to track fertility by self-observation of cervical mucus and an electronic monitor that measures urinary levels of estrone-3-glucuronide and luteinizing hormone. Main Outcome Measures: Correct-and typical-use unintended pregnancy rates. Results: There were a total of 26 unintended pregnancies, 3 with correct use. With 1,795 months of use, the correct-use pregnancy rate was 2.1% per 12 months of use (i.e., 97.9% effective in avoiding pregnancy when rules of the method were always followed) and the imperfect-use pregnancy rate was 14.2% per 12 months of use (i.e., 85.8% effective in avoiding pregnancy when rules of the method were not always followed and all unintended pregnancies and months of use were included in the calculations). Conclusions: Correct use of an electronic hormonal fertility monitor with cervical mucus observations can be as effective as other fertility awareness–based methods of natural family planning. Comparative studies are needed to confirm this conclusion

The Future of Professional Education in Natural Family Planning

Nurses and other health care professionals often have little knowledge of methods of natural family planning (NFP) and do not readily prescribe natural methods for their patients. One reason for this is that little or no information on NFP is provided in nursing or medical schools. The holistic, informational, and integrative nature of NFP fits well with professional nursing practice. A university online distance education NFP teacher training program, which offers academic credit and includes theory, practice, and the latest developments in fertility monitoring, has been developed for health care professionals. Professional NFP services in the United States need to meet worldwide standards and include documenting and assessing pregnancy outcomes, tailoring NFP services to the client or couple, and simplifying them for ease of use in a standard health care practice

Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications

We investigate whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. Several global surface temperature records since 1850 and records deduced from the orbits of the planets present very similar power spectra. Eleven frequencies with period between 5 and 100 years closely correspond in the two records. Among them, large climate oscillations with peak-to-trough amplitude of about 0.1 $^oC$ and 0.25 $^oC$, and periods of about 20 and 60 years, respectively, are synchronized to the orbital periods of Jupiter and Saturn. Schwabe and Hale solar cycles are also visible in the temperature records. A 9.1-year cycle is synchronized to the Moon's orbital cycles. A phenomenological model based on these astronomical cycles can be used to well reconstruct the temperature oscillations since 1850 and to make partial forecasts for the 21$^{st}$ century. It is found that at least 60\% of the global warming observed since 1970 has been induced by the combined effect of the above natural climate oscillations. The partial forecast indicates that climate may stabilize or cool until 2030-2040. Possible physical mechanisms are qualitatively discussed with an emphasis on the phenomenon of collective synchronization of coupled oscillators.Comment: 18 pages, 15 figures, 2 table

Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from the Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements

We test whether fund managers have stock-picking skill by comparing their holdings and trades prior to earnings announcements with the returns realized at those events. This approach largely avoids the joint-hypothesis problem with long-horizon studies of fund performance. Consistent with skilled trading, we find that, on average, stocks that funds buy earn significantly higher returns at subsequent earnings announcements than stocks that they sell. Funds display persistence in our event return-based metrics, and those that do well tend to have a growth objective, large size, high turnover, and use incentive fees to motivate managers.

Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The results suggest that real estate forecasts are biased, less volatile compared to market returns and inefficient in that forecast errors tend to persist. The strongest finding is that real estate forecasters display the characteristics associated with a consensus indicating herding

Components of Grain Futures Price Volatility

We analyze the determinants of daily futures price volatility in corn, soybeans, wheat, and oats markets from 1986 to 2007. Combining the information from simultaneously traded contracts, a generalized least squares method is implemented that allows us to clearly distinguish among time-to-delivery effects, seasonality, calendar trend, and volatility persistence. We find strong evidence of time-to-delivery (Samuelson) effects and systematic seasonal components with volatility increasing prior to harvest times— an indirect confirmation of the theory of storage.futures markets, Samuelson effect, seasonality, time to maturity, volatility, Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,