Detecting spatial patterns with the cumulant function. Part I: The theory

In climate studies, detecting spatial patterns that largely deviate from the sample mean still remains a statistical challenge. Although a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), or equivalently a Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) decomposition, is often applied on this purpose, it can only provide meaningful results if the underlying multivariate distribution is Gaussian. Indeed, PCA is based on optimizing second order moments quantities and the covariance matrix can only capture the full dependence structure for multivariate Gaussian vectors. Whenever the application at hand can not satisfy this normality hypothesis (e.g. precipitation data), alternatives and/or improvements to PCA have to be developed and studied. To go beyond this second order statistics constraint that limits the applicability of the PCA, we take advantage of the cumulant function that can produce higher order moments information. This cumulant function, well-known in the statistical literature, allows us to propose a new, simple and fast procedure to identify spatial patterns for non-Gaussian data. Our algorithm consists in maximizing the cumulant function. To illustrate our approach, its implementation for which explicit computations are obtained is performed on three family of of multivariate random vectors. In addition, we show that our algorithm corresponds to selecting the directions along which projected data display the largest spread over the marginal probability density tails.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figure

Robust Orthogonal Complement Principal Component Analysis

Recently, the robustification of principal component analysis has attracted lots of attention from statisticians, engineers and computer scientists. In this work we study the type of outliers that are not necessarily apparent in the original observation space but can seriously affect the principal subspace estimation. Based on a mathematical formulation of such transformed outliers, a novel robust orthogonal complement principal component analysis (ROC-PCA) is proposed. The framework combines the popular sparsity-enforcing and low rank regularization techniques to deal with row-wise outliers as well as element-wise outliers. A non-asymptotic oracle inequality guarantees the accuracy and high breakdown performance of ROC-PCA in finite samples. To tackle the computational challenges, an efficient algorithm is developed on the basis of Stiefel manifold optimization and iterative thresholding. Furthermore, a batch variant is proposed to significantly reduce the cost in ultra high dimensions. The paper also points out a pitfall of a common practice of SVD reduction in robust PCA. Experiments show the effectiveness and efficiency of ROC-PCA in both synthetic and real data

Statistical inference with anchored Bayesian mixture of regressions models: A case study analysis of allometric data

We present a case study in which we use a mixture of regressions model to improve on an ill-fitting simple linear regression model relating log brain mass to log body mass for 100 placental mammalian species. The slope of this regression model is of particular scientific interest because it corresponds to a constant that governs a hypothesized allometric power law relating brain mass to body mass. A specific line of investigation is to determine whether the regression parameters vary across subgroups of related species. We model these data using an anchored Bayesian mixture of regressions model, which modifies the standard Bayesian Gaussian mixture by pre-assigning small subsets of observations to given mixture components with probability one. These observations (called anchor points) break the relabeling invariance typical of exchangeable model specifications (the so-called label-switching problem). A careful choice of which observations to pre-classify to which mixture components is key to the specification of a well-fitting anchor model. In the article we compare three strategies for the selection of anchor points. The first assumes that the underlying mixture of regressions model holds and assigns anchor points to different components to maximize the information about their labeling. The second makes no assumption about the relationship between x and y and instead identifies anchor points using a bivariate Gaussian mixture model. The third strategy begins with the assumption that there is only one mixture regression component and identifies anchor points that are representative of a clustering structure based on case-deletion importance sampling weights. We compare the performance of the three strategies on the allometric data set and use auxiliary taxonomic information about the species to evaluate the model-based classifications estimated from these models

Detecting spatial patterns with the cumulant function. Part II: An application to El Nino

The spatial coherence of a measured variable (e.g. temperature or pressure) is often studied to determine the regions where this variable varies the most or to find teleconnections, i.e. correlations between specific regions. While usual methods to find spatial patterns, such as Principal Components Analysis (PCA), are constrained by linear symmetries, the dependence of variables such as temperature or pressure at different locations is generally nonlinear. In particular, large deviations from the sample mean are expected to be strongly affected by such nonlinearities. Here we apply a newly developed nonlinear technique (Maxima of Cumulant Function, MCF) for the detection of typical spatial patterns that largely deviate from the mean. In order to test the technique and to introduce the methodology, we focus on the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and its spatial patterns. We find nonsymmetric temperature patterns corresponding to El Nino and La Nina, and we compare the results of MCF with other techniques, such as the symmetric solutions of PCA, and the nonsymmetric solutions of Nonlinear PCA (NLPCA). We found that MCF solutions are more reliable than the NLPCA fits, and can capture mixtures of principal components. Finally, we apply Extreme Value Theory on the temporal variations extracted from our methodology. We find that the tails of the distribution of extreme temperatures during La Nina episodes is bounded, while the tail during El Ninos is less likely to be bounded. This implies that the mean spatial patterns of the two phases are asymmetric, as well as the behaviour of their extremes.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figure

What are the Best Hierarchical Descriptors for Complex Networks?

This work reviews several hierarchical measurements of the topology of complex networks and then applies feature selection concepts and methods in order to quantify the relative importance of each measurement with respect to the discrimination between four representative theoretical network models, namely Erd\"{o}s-R\'enyi, Barab\'asi-Albert, Watts-Strogatz as well as a geographical type of network. The obtained results confirmed that the four models can be well-separated by using a combination of measurements. In addition, the relative contribution of each considered feature for the overall discrimination of the models was quantified in terms of the respective weights in the canonical projection into two dimensions, with the traditional clustering coefficient, hierarchical clustering coefficient and neighborhood clustering coefficient resulting particularly effective. Interestingly, the average shortest path length and hierarchical node degrees contributed little for the separation of the four network models.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure