On the Hardness of Signaling

There has been a recent surge of interest in the role of information in strategic interactions. Much of this work seeks to understand how the realized equilibrium of a game is influenced by uncertainty in the environment and the information available to players in the game. Lurking beneath this literature is a fundamental, yet largely unexplored, algorithmic question: how should a "market maker" who is privy to additional information, and equipped with a specified objective, inform the players in the game? This is an informational analogue of the mechanism design question, and views the information structure of a game as a mathematical object to be designed, rather than an exogenous variable. We initiate a complexity-theoretic examination of the design of optimal information structures in general Bayesian games, a task often referred to as signaling. We focus on one of the simplest instantiations of the signaling question: Bayesian zero-sum games, and a principal who must choose an information structure maximizing the equilibrium payoff of one of the players. In this setting, we show that optimal signaling is computationally intractable, and in some cases hard to approximate, assuming that it is hard to recover a planted clique from an Erdos-Renyi random graph. This is despite the fact that equilibria in these games are computable in polynomial time, and therefore suggests that the hardness of optimal signaling is a distinct phenomenon from the hardness of equilibrium computation. Necessitated by the non-local nature of information structures, en-route to our results we prove an "amplification lemma" for the planted clique problem which may be of independent interest

Sum-of-squares lower bounds for planted clique

Finding cliques in random graphs and the closely related "planted" clique variant, where a clique of size k is planted in a random G(n, 1/2) graph, have been the focus of substantial study in algorithm design. Despite much effort, the best known polynomial-time algorithms only solve the problem for k ~ sqrt(n). In this paper we study the complexity of the planted clique problem under algorithms from the Sum-of-squares hierarchy. We prove the first average case lower bound for this model: for almost all graphs in G(n,1/2), r rounds of the SOS hierarchy cannot find a planted k-clique unless k > n^{1/2r} (up to logarithmic factors). Thus, for any constant number of rounds planted cliques of size n^{o(1)} cannot be found by this powerful class of algorithms. This is shown via an integrability gap for the natural formulation of maximum clique problem on random graphs for SOS and Lasserre hierarchies, which in turn follow from degree lower bounds for the Positivestellensatz proof system. We follow the usual recipe for such proofs. First, we introduce a natural "dual certificate" (also known as a "vector-solution" or "pseudo-expectation") for the given system of polynomial equations representing the problem for every fixed input graph. Then we show that the matrix associated with this dual certificate is PSD (positive semi-definite) with high probability over the choice of the input graph.This requires the use of certain tools. One is the theory of association schemes, and in particular the eigenspaces and eigenvalues of the Johnson scheme. Another is a combinatorial method we develop to compute (via traces) norm bounds for certain random matrices whose entries are highly dependent; we hope this method will be useful elsewhere

Improved Sum-of-Squares Lower Bounds for Hidden Clique and Hidden Submatrix Problems

Given a large data matrix $A\in\mathbb{R}^{n\times n}$, we consider the problem of determining whether its entries are i.i.d. with some known marginal distribution $A_{ij}\sim P_0$, or instead $A$ contains a principal submatrix $A_{{\sf Q},{\sf Q}}$ whose entries have marginal distribution $A_{ij}\sim P_1\neq P_0$. As a special case, the hidden (or planted) clique problem requires to find a planted clique in an otherwise uniformly random graph. Assuming unbounded computational resources, this hypothesis testing problem is statistically solvable provided $|{\sf Q}|\ge C \log n$ for a suitable constant $C$. However, despite substantial effort, no polynomial time algorithm is known that succeeds with high probability when $|{\sf Q}| = o(\sqrt{n})$. Recently Meka and Wigderson \cite{meka2013association}, proposed a method to establish lower bounds within the Sum of Squares (SOS) semidefinite hierarchy. Here we consider the degree-$4$ SOS relaxation, and study the construction of \cite{meka2013association} to prove that SOS fails unless $k\ge C\, n^{1/3}/\log n$. An argument presented by Barak implies that this lower bound cannot be substantially improved unless the witness construction is changed in the proof. Our proof uses the moments method to bound the spectrum of a certain random association scheme, i.e. a symmetric random matrix whose rows and columns are indexed by the edges of an Erd\"os-Renyi random graph.Comment: 40 pages, 1 table, conferenc

Optimal detection of sparse principal components in high dimension

We perform a finite sample analysis of the detection levels for sparse principal components of a high-dimensional covariance matrix. Our minimax optimal test is based on a sparse eigenvalue statistic. Alas, computing this test is known to be NP-complete in general, and we describe a computationally efficient alternative test using convex relaxations. Our relaxation is also proved to detect sparse principal components at near optimal detection levels, and it performs well on simulated datasets. Moreover, using polynomial time reductions from theoretical computer science, we bring significant evidence that our results cannot be improved, thus revealing an inherent trade off between statistical and computational performance.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AOS1127 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org