6,717 research outputs found

    Financial asset bubbles in banking networks

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    We consider a banking network represented by a system of stochastic differential equations coupled by their drift. We assume a core-periphery structure, and that the banks in the core hold a bubbly asset. The banks in the periphery have not direct access to the bubble, but can take initially advantage from its increase by investing on the banks in the core. Investments are modeled by the weight of the links, which is a function of the robustness of the banks. In this way, a preferential attachment mechanism towards the core takes place during the growth of the bubble. We then investigate how the bubble distort the shape of the network, both for finite and infinitely large systems, assuming a non vanishing impact of the core on the periphery. Due to the influence of the bubble, the banks are no longer independent, and the law of large numbers cannot be directly applied at the limit. This results in a term in the drift of the diffusions which does not average out, and that increases systemic risk at the moment of the burst. We test this feature of the model by numerical simulations.Comment: 33 pages, 6 table

    Whither Capitalism? Financial externalities and crisis

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    As with global warming, so with financial crises – externalities have a lot to answer for. We look at three of them. First the financial accelerator due to ‘fire sales’ of collateral assets -- a form of pecuniary externality that leads to liquidity being undervalued. Second the ‘risk- shifting’ behaviour of highly-levered financial institutions who keep the upside of risky investment while passing the downside to others thanks to limited liability. Finally, the network externality where the structure of the financial industry helps propagate shocks around the system unless this is checked by some form of circuit breaker, or ‘ring-fence’. The contrast between crisis-induced Great Recession and its aftermath of slow growth in the West and the rapid - and (so far) sustained - growth in the East suggests that successful economic progress may depend on how well these externalities are managed

    The Illusion of the Perpetual Money Machine

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    We argue that the present crisis and stalling economy continuing since 2007 are rooted in the delusionary belief in policies based on a "perpetual money machine" type of thinking. We document strong evidence that, since the early 1980s, consumption has been increasingly funded by smaller savings, booming financial profits, wealth extracted from house price appreciation and explosive debt. This is in stark contrast with the productivity-fueled growth that was seen in the 1950s and 1960s. This transition, starting in the early 1980s, was further supported by a climate of deregulation and a massive growth in financial derivatives designed to spread and diversify the risks globally. The result has been a succession of bubbles and crashes, including the worldwide stock market bubble and great crash of October 1987, the savings and loans crisis of the 1980s, the burst in 1991 of the enormous Japanese real estate and stock market bubbles, the emerging markets bubbles and crashes in 1994 and 1997, the LTCM crisis of 1998, the dotcom bubble bursting in 2000, the recent house price bubbles, the financialization bubble via special investment vehicles, the stock market bubble, the commodity and oil bubbles and the debt bubbles, all developing jointly and feeding on each other. Rather than still hoping that real wealth will come out of money creation, we need fundamentally new ways of thinking. In uncertain times, it is essential, more than ever, to think in scenarios: what can happen in the future, and, what would be the effect on your wealth and capital? How can you protect against adverse scenarios? We thus end by examining the question "what can we do?" from the macro level, discussing the fundamental issue of incentives and of constructing and predicting scenarios as well as developing investment insights.Comment: 27 pages, 18 figures (Notenstein Academy White Paper Series

    The Brave New World of Central Banking: The Policy Challenges Posed by Asset Price Booms and Busts

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    At the dawn of the 21st century, property and equity ownership are spread more broadly across the population than they once were. One consequence of this is that asset price booms and crashes now have a direct impact on general welfare. The fact that bubbles distort nearly all economic decisions gives policymakers a stronger interest in asset price stability. In this essay I examine the theoretical and empirical case for the existence of equity and property bubbles, and then summarize the economic distortions that they create. The evidence suggests increasing our attention on property prices. I go on to discuss the possible policy responses, including examining the consequences of changing the way in which housing is included in standard aggregate price measures.. Central bank policy, equity price bubbles, housing price bubbles.

    Statistically validated network of portfolio overlaps and systemic risk

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    Common asset holding by financial institutions, namely portfolio overlap, is nowadays regarded as an important channel for financial contagion with the potential to trigger fire sales and thus severe losses at the systemic level. In this paper we propose a method to assess the statistical significance of the overlap between pairs of heterogeneously diversified portfolios, which then allows us to build a validated network of financial institutions where links indicate potential contagion channels due to realized portfolio overlaps. The method is implemented on a historical database of institutional holdings ranging from 1999 to the end of 2013, but can be in general applied to any bipartite network where the presence of similar sets of neighbors is of interest. We find that the proportion of validated network links (i.e., of statistically significant overlaps) increased steadily before the 2007-2008 global financial crisis and reached a maximum when the crisis occurred. We argue that the nature of this measure implies that systemic risk from fire sales liquidation was maximal at that time. After a sharp drop in 2008, systemic risk resumed its growth in 2009, with a notable acceleration in 2013, reaching levels not seen since 2007. We finally show that market trends tend to be amplified in the portfolios identified by the algorithm, such that it is possible to have an informative signal about financial institutions that are about to suffer (enjoy) the most significant losses (gains)

    The Future of the Japanese Financial System

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    The purpose of this paper is to consider the strengths and weaknesses of the Japanese financial system and to propose possible changes for the future. The apparent reversal in opinions on the effectiveness of the Japanese and US financial systems in recent years suggests a long term view should be taken. All financial systems have problems in the short term and it is important not to put too much weight on these. Section 2 briefly considers the historical development and the current differences between the Japanese and US financial systems. Section 3 considers the functions of a financial system and how the Japanese and US systems have performed these functions. Suggestions for reforms for Japan are outlined in Section 4 and Section 5 contains concluding remarks. This paper was presented at the Financial Institutions Center's October 1996 conference on "

    Asset Prices, Inflation and Monetary Control - Re-inventing Money as a Policy Tool

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    Low inflation on goods markets provides no reliable precondition for asset-market stability; it might even promote the emergence of bubbles because interest rates and risk premia appear to be low. A further factor driving asset demand is easy availability of credit, which in turn roots in the banking system operating in a regime of endogenous central-bank money. A comparison of Bundesbank and ECB policies suggests that credit growth can be controlled more efficiently if rising interest rates are accompanied by some liquidity squeeze that supports the spillover of a monetary restriction to capital markets. The announcement effect of a central bank Charter including the goal of financial-market stability helps to deter private agents from excessive asset trading.open-market policy; asset-price bubble; euro money market; ECB strategy

    Asset Price Instability and Policy Responses: The Legacy of Liberalisation

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    The debate about the dynamics and potential policy responses to asset inflation has intensified in recent years. Some analysts, notably Borio and Lowe, have called for 'subtle' changes to existing monetary targeting frameworks to try to deal with the problems of asset inflation and have attempted to developed indicators of financial vulnerability to aid this process. In contrast, this paper argues that the uncertainties involved in understanding financial market developments and their potential impact on the real economy are likely to remain too high to embolden policy makers. The political and institutional risks associated with policy errors are also significant. The fundamental premise that a liberalised financial system is based on 'efficient' market allocation cannot be overlooked. The corollary is that any serious attempt to stabilize financial market outcomes must involve at least a partial reversal of deregulation.

    Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change

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    This paper surveys recent advances in empirical studies of the monetary transmission mechanism (MTM), with special attention to Central and Eastern Europe. In particular, while laying out the functioning of the separate channels in the MTM, it explores possible interrelations between different channels and their impact on prices and the real economy. The empirical findings for Central and Eastern Europe are then briefly compared with results for industrialized countries, especially for the euro area. We highlight potential pitfalls in the literature and assess the relative importance, and potential development, of the different channels, emphasizing the relevant asymmetries between Central and Eastern European countries and the euro area.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57230/1/wp850 .pd
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