Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Beyond Probabilities

This position paper reflects on the state-of-the-art in decision-making under uncertainty. A classical assumption is that probabilities can sufficiently capture all uncertainty in a system. In this paper, the focus is on the uncertainty that goes beyond this classical interpretation, particularly by employing a clear distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. The paper features an overview of Markov decision processes (MDPs) and extensions to account for partial observability and adversarial behavior. These models sufficiently capture aleatoric uncertainty but fail to account for epistemic uncertainty robustly. Consequently, we present a thorough overview of so-called uncertainty models that exhibit uncertainty in a more robust interpretation. We show several solution techniques for both discrete and continuous models, ranging from formal verification, over control-based abstractions, to reinforcement learning. As an integral part of this paper, we list and discuss several key challenges that arise when dealing with rich types of uncertainty in a model-based fashion

Planning with SiMBA: Motion Planning under Uncertainty for Temporal Goals using Simplified Belief Guides

This paper presents a new multi-layered algorithm for motion planning under motion and sensing uncertainties for Linear Temporal Logic specifications. We propose a technique to guide a sampling-based search tree in the combined task and belief space using trajectories from a simplified model of the system, to make the problem computationally tractable. Our method eliminates the need to construct fine and accurate finite abstractions. We prove correctness and probabilistic completeness of our algorithm, and illustrate the benefits of our approach on several case studies. Our results show that guidance with a simplified belief space model allows for significant speed-up in planning for complex specifications.Comment: 8 pages, to appear in the IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA), 202

Task-Driven Estimation and Control via Information Bottlenecks

Our goal is to develop a principled and general algorithmic framework for task-driven estimation and control for robotic systems. State-of-the-art approaches for controlling robotic systems typically rely heavily on accurately estimating the full state of the robot (e.g., a running robot might estimate joint angles and velocities, torso state, and position relative to a goal). However, full state representations are often excessively rich for the specific task at hand and can lead to significant computational inefficiency and brittleness to errors in state estimation. In contrast, we present an approach that eschews such rich representations and seeks to create task-driven representations. The key technical insight is to leverage the theory of information bottlenecks}to formalize the notion of a "task-driven representation" in terms of information theoretic quantities that measure the minimality of a representation. We propose novel iterative algorithms for automatically synthesizing (offline) a task-driven representation (given in terms of a set of task-relevant variables (TRVs)) and a performant control policy that is a function of the TRVs. We present online algorithms for estimating the TRVs in order to apply the control policy. We demonstrate that our approach results in significant robustness to unmodeled measurement uncertainty both theoretically and via thorough simulation experiments including a spring-loaded inverted pendulum running to a goal location.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, abridged version accepted to ICRA2019; Incorporates changes in final conference submissio

Prospects of a mathematical theory of human behavior in complex man-machine systems tasks

A hierarchy of human activities is derived by analyzing automobile driving in general terms. A structural description leads to a block diagram and a time-sharing computer analogy. The range of applicability of existing mathematical models is considered with respect to the hierarchy of human activities in actual complex tasks. Other mathematical tools so far not often applied to man machine systems are also discussed. The mathematical descriptions at least briefly considered here include utility, estimation, control, queueing, and fuzzy set theory as well as artificial intelligence techniques. Some thoughts are given as to how these methods might be integrated and how further work might be pursued

Communication for Teams of Networked Robots

There are a large class of problems, from search and rescue to environmental monitoring, that can benefit from teams of mobile robots in environments where there is no existing infrastructure for inter-agent communication. We seek to address the problems necessary for a team of small, low-power, low-cost robots to deploy in such a way that they can dynamically provide their own multi-hop communication network. To do so, we formulate a situational awareness problem statement that specifies both the physical task and end-to-end communication rates that must be maintained. In pursuit of a solution to this problem, we address topics ranging from the modeling of point-to-point wireless communication to mobility control for connectivity maintenance. Since our focus is on developing solutions to these problems that can be experimentally verified, we also detail the design and implantation of a decentralized testbed for multi-robot research. Experiments on this testbed allow us to determine data-driven models for point-to-point wireless channel prediction, test relative signal-strength-based localization methods, and to verify that our algorithms for mobility control maintain the desired instantaneous rates when routing through the wireless network. The tools we develop are integral to the fielding of teams of robots with robust wireless network capabilities

Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

A review on Day-Ahead Solar Energy Prediction

Accurate day-ahead prediction of solar energy plays a vital role in the planning of supply and demand in a power grid system. The previous study shows predictions based on weather forecasts composed of numerical text data. They can reflect temporal factors therefore the data versus the result might not always give the most accurate and precise results. That is why incorporating different methods and techniques which enhance accuracy is an important topic. An in-depth review of current deep learning-based forecasting models for renewable energy is provided in this paper