Agent-based modeling of interdependent critical infrastructures

Critical interdependent infrastructures are complex systems, that if damaged or disrupted can seriously compromise the welfare of our society. This research, part of the CRESCO project, deal with the problem of interdependent critical infrastructures analysis, proposing an agent-based modelling and simulation solution. The approach we put forward, named Federated-ABMS, relies on discrete agent-based modelling and simulation and federated simulation. Federated-ABMS provides a formalism to model compound complex systems, composed of interacting systems, as federation of interacting agents and sector specific simulation models. This paper describes the formal model as well it outlines the steps that characterise the Federated-ABMS methodology, here applied to a target system, composed of a communication network and of a power grid. Moreover we conclude the paper with a thorough discussion of implementation issues

Vulnérabilité, interdépendance et analyse des risques des postes sources et des modes d’exploitation décentralisés des réseaux électriques

In view of the increasing use of Information and Communication Technol-ogies in power systems, it is essential to study the interdependencies between these coupled heterogeneous systems. This thesis focuses on the modeling of multi- infrastructure systems. This includes interdependencies and the three major failures families: common mode, escalat-ing and cascading. It is indeed necessary to identify the weaknesses that can trigger one or multiple failure(s) and cascade through these interdependent infrastructures, causing unex-pected and increasingly more serious failures to other infrastructures. In this context, different approaches, based on the theory of Complex Networks, are developed to identify the most critical components in the coupled heterogeneous system. One of the major scientific barriers addressed in this thesis is the development of a unified mathematical model to represent the behavior.Au vu de l’utilisation croissante des technologies de l’information et de la communication dans les réseaux électriques, il est indispensable d’étudier l’étroite liaison entre ces infrastructures et d’avoir une vision intégrée du système couplé. Cette thèse porte ainsi sur la modélisation des systèmes multi-infrastructures. Cela inclut les interdépendances et les trajectoires de défaillances de type modes communs, aggravations et cascades. Il est en effet nécessaire d’identifier les points de faiblesse qui peuvent déclencher une ou de multiples défaillance(s), se succéder en cascade au travers de ces infrastructures liées et ainsi entrainer des défaillances inattendues et de plus en plus graves dans des autres infrastructures. Dans cette optique, différents modèles basés sur la théorie des Réseaux Complexes sont développés afin d’identifier les composants les plus importantes, et pourtant critiques, dans le système interconnecté. Un des principaux verrous scientifiques levé dans cette thèse est relatif au développement d'un modèle mathématique « unifié » afin de représenter les comportements des multiples infrastructures non-homogènes qui ont des interdépendances asymétriques

phenomenological simulators of critical infrastructures

The objective of this chapter is to introduce and discuss the main phenomenological approaches that have been used within the CI M&S area. Phenomenological models are used to analyse the organizational phenomena of the society considering its complexity (finance, mobility, health) and the interactions among its different components. Within CI MA&S, different modelling approaches have been proposed and used as, for example, physical simulators (e.g. power flow simulators for electrical networks). Physical simulators are used to predict the behaviour of the physical system (the technological network) under different conditions. As an example, electrical engineers use different kind of simulators during planning and managing of network activities for different purposes: (1) power flow simulators for the evaluation of electrical network configuration changes (that can be both deliberate changes or results from of the effects of accidents and/or attacks) and contingency analysis, (2) real time simulators for the design of protection devices and new controllers. For the telecommunication domain one mat resort to network traffic simulators as for example ns2/ns3 codes that allow the simulation of telecommunication networks (wired/wireless) at packet switching level and evaluate its performances. Single domains simulators can be federated to analyse the interactions among different domains. In contrast, phenomenological simulators use more abstract data and models for the interaction among the different components of the system. The chapter will describe the main characteristic of some of the main simulation approaches resulting from the ENEA and UBC efforts in the CIP and Complexity Science field