215,281 research outputs found
An Integrated Framework for Competitive Multi-channel Marketing of Multi-featured Products
For any company, multiple channels are available for reaching a population in
order to market its products. Some of the most well-known channels are (a) mass
media advertisement, (b) recommendations using social advertisement, and (c)
viral marketing using social networks. The company would want to maximize its
reach while also accounting for simultaneous marketing of competing products,
where the product marketings may not be independent. In this direction, we
propose and analyze a multi-featured generalization of the classical linear
threshold model. We hence develop a framework for integrating the considered
marketing channels into the social network, and an approach for allocating
budget among these channels
Interpretable Predictions of Tree-based Ensembles via Actionable Feature Tweaking
Machine-learned models are often described as "black boxes". In many
real-world applications however, models may have to sacrifice predictive power
in favour of human-interpretability. When this is the case, feature engineering
becomes a crucial task, which requires significant and time-consuming human
effort. Whilst some features are inherently static, representing properties
that cannot be influenced (e.g., the age of an individual), others capture
characteristics that could be adjusted (e.g., the daily amount of carbohydrates
taken). Nonetheless, once a model is learned from the data, each prediction it
makes on new instances is irreversible - assuming every instance to be a static
point located in the chosen feature space. There are many circumstances however
where it is important to understand (i) why a model outputs a certain
prediction on a given instance, (ii) which adjustable features of that instance
should be modified, and finally (iii) how to alter such a prediction when the
mutated instance is input back to the model. In this paper, we present a
technique that exploits the internals of a tree-based ensemble classifier to
offer recommendations for transforming true negative instances into positively
predicted ones. We demonstrate the validity of our approach using an online
advertising application. First, we design a Random Forest classifier that
effectively separates between two types of ads: low (negative) and high
(positive) quality ads (instances). Then, we introduce an algorithm that
provides recommendations that aim to transform a low quality ad (negative
instance) into a high quality one (positive instance). Finally, we evaluate our
approach on a subset of the active inventory of a large ad network, Yahoo
Gemini.Comment: 10 pages, KDD 201
Recommendations for Responsible Food Marketing to Children
The marketing of unhealthy foods to children and youth is a major public health concern. Children in the United States grow up surrounded by food and beverage marketing, which primarily promotes products with excessive amounts of added sugar, salt, and fat, and inadequate amounts of fruits, vegetables, and whole grains. This document provides a comprehensive set of model definitions for food marketing practices directed to children. The recommendations, developed by a national panel of experts convened by Healthy Eating Research, define the child audience range as birth to 14 years of age; address the range of food marketing practices aimed at children; and specify the strategies, techniques, media platforms, and venues used to target children. When paired with sound nutrition criteria, these recommendations will help support responsible food marketing to children by addressing current loopholes in food marketing definitions and self-regulatory efforts that allow companies to market unhealthy foods and beverages to children
Affinity Paths and Information Diffusion in Social Networks
Widespread interest in the diffusion of information through social networks
has produced a large number of Social Dynamics models. A majority of them use
theoretical hypothesis to explain their diffusion mechanisms while the few
empirically based ones average out their measures over many messages of
different content. Our empirical research tracking the step-by-step email
propagation of an invariable viral marketing message delves into the content
impact and has discovered new and striking features. The topology and dynamics
of the propagation cascades display patterns not inherited from the email
networks carrying the message. Their disconnected, low transitivity, tree-like
cascades present positive correlation between their nodes probability to
forward the message and the average number of neighbors they target and show
increased participants' involvement as the propagation paths length grows. Such
patterns not described before, nor replicated by any of the existing models of
information diffusion, can be explained if participants make their pass-along
decisions based uniquely on local knowledge of their network neighbors affinity
with the message content. We prove the plausibility of such mechanism through a
stylized, agent-based model that replicates the \emph{Affinity Paths} observed
in real information diffusion cascades.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figure
Predictive User Modeling with Actionable Attributes
Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for
modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the
traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable
variables, called attributes. The goal is to learn a model for predicting the
target variable for unseen instances. For example, for marketing purposes a
company consider profiling a new user based on her observed web browsing
behavior, referral keywords or other relevant information. In many real world
applications the values of some attributes are not only observable, but can be
actively decided by a decision maker. Furthermore, in some of such applications
the decision maker is interested not only to generate accurate predictions, but
to maximize the probability of the desired outcome. For example, a direct
marketing manager can choose which type of a special offer to send to a client
(actionable attribute), hoping that the right choice will result in a positive
response with a higher probability. We study how to learn to choose the value
of an actionable attribute in order to maximize the probability of a desired
outcome in predictive modeling. We emphasize that not all instances are equally
sensitive to changes in actions. Accurate choice of an action is critical for
those instances, which are on the borderline (e.g. users who do not have a
strong opinion one way or the other). We formulate three supervised learning
approaches for learning to select the value of an actionable attribute at an
instance level. We also introduce a focused training procedure which puts more
emphasis on the situations where varying the action is the most likely to take
the effect. The proof of concept experimental validation on two real-world case
studies in web analytics and e-learning domains highlights the potential of the
proposed approaches
- …