1,448 research outputs found

    Undergraduate Catalog of Studies, 2023-2024

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    Undergraduate Catalog of Studies, 2023-2024

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    Applications of Deep Learning Models in Financial Forecasting

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    In financial markets, deep learning techniques sparked a revolution, reshaping conventional approaches and amplifying predictive capabilities. This thesis explored the applications of deep learning models to unravel insights and methodologies aimed at advancing financial forecasting. The crux of the research problem lies in the applications of predictive models within financial domains, characterised by high volatility and uncertainty. This thesis investigated the application of advanced deep-learning methodologies in the context of financial forecasting, addressing the challenges posed by the dynamic nature of financial markets. These challenges were tackled by exploring a range of techniques, including convolutional neural networks (CNNs), long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), autoencoders (AEs), and variational autoencoders (VAEs), along with approaches such as encoding financial time series into images. Through analysis, methodologies such as transfer learning, convolutional neural networks, long short-term memory networks, generative modelling, and image encoding of time series data were examined. These methodologies collectively offered a comprehensive toolkit for extracting meaningful insights from financial data. The present work investigated the practicality of a deep learning CNN-LSTM model within the Directional Change framework to predict significant DC events—a task crucial for timely decisionmaking in financial markets. Furthermore, the potential of autoencoders and variational autoencoders to enhance financial forecasting accuracy and remove noise from financial time series data was explored. Leveraging their capacity within financial time series, these models offered promising avenues for improved data representation and subsequent forecasting. To further contribute to financial prediction capabilities, a deep multi-model was developed that harnessed the power of pre-trained computer vision models. This innovative approach aimed to predict the VVIX, utilising the cross-disciplinary synergy between computer vision and financial forecasting. By integrating knowledge from these domains, novel insights into the prediction of market volatility were provided

    Neural Architecture Search for Image Segmentation and Classification

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    Deep learning (DL) is a class of machine learning algorithms that relies on deep neural networks (DNNs) for computations. Unlike traditional machine learning algorithms, DL can learn from raw data directly and effectively. Hence, DL has been successfully applied to tackle many real-world problems. When applying DL to a given problem, the primary task is designing the optimum DNN. This task relies heavily on human expertise, is time-consuming, and requires many trial-and-error experiments. This thesis aims to automate the laborious task of designing the optimum DNN by exploring the neural architecture search (NAS) approach. Here, we propose two new NAS algorithms for two real-world problems: pedestrian lane detection for assistive navigation and hyperspectral image segmentation for biosecurity scanning. Additionally, we also introduce a new dataset-agnostic predictor of neural network performance, which can be used to speed-up NAS algorithms that require the evaluation of candidate DNNs

    Enhancing the forensic comparison process of common trace materials through the development of practical and systematic methods

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    An ongoing advancement in forensic trace evidence has driven the development of new and objective methods for comparing various materials. While many standard guides have been published for use in trace laboratories, different areas require a more comprehensive understanding of error rates and an urgent need for harmonizing methods of examination and interpretation. Two critical areas are the forensic examination of physical fits and the comparison of spectral data, which depend highly on the examiner’s judgment. The long-term goal of this study is to advance and modernize the comparative process of physical fit examinations and spectral interpretation. This goal is fulfilled through several avenues: 1) improvement of quantitative-based methods for various trace materials, 2) scrutiny of the methods through interlaboratory exercises, and 3) addressing fundamental aspects of the discipline using large experimental datasets, computational algorithms, and statistical analysis. A substantial new body of knowledge has been established by analyzing population sets of nearly 4,000 items representative of casework evidence. First, this research identifies material-specific relevant features for duct tapes and automotive polymers. Then, this study develops reporting templates to facilitate thorough and systematic documentation of an analyst’s decision-making process and minimize risks of bias. It also establishes criteria for utilizing a quantitative edge similarity score (ESS) for tapes and automotive polymers that yield relatively high accuracy (85% to 100%) and, notably, no false positives. Finally, the practicality and performance of the ESS method for duct tape physical fits are evaluated by forensic practitioners through two interlaboratory exercises. Across these studies, accuracy using the ESS method ranges between 95-99%, and again no false positives are reported. The practitioners’ feedback demonstrates the method’s potential to assist in training and improve peer verifications. This research also develops and trains computational algorithms to support analysts making decisions on sample comparisons. The automated algorithms in this research show the potential to provide objective and probabilistic support for determining a physical fit and demonstrate comparative accuracy to the analyst. Furthermore, additional models are developed to extract feature edge information from the systematic comparison templates of tapes and textiles to provide insight into the relative importance of each comparison feature. A decision tree model is developed to assist physical fit examinations of duct tapes and textiles and demonstrates comparative performance to the trained analysts. The computational tools also evaluate the suitability of partial sample comparisons that simulate situations where portions of the item are lost or damaged. Finally, an objective approach to interpreting complex spectral data is presented. A comparison metric consisting of spectral angle contrast ratios (SCAR) is used as a model to assess more than 94 different-source and 20 same-source electrical tape backings. The SCAR metric results in a discrimination power of 96% and demonstrates the capacity to capture information on the variability between different-source samples and the variability within same-source samples. Application of the random-forest model allows for the automatic detection of primary differences between samples. The developed threshold could assist analysts with making decisions on the spectral comparison of chemically similar samples. This research provides the forensic science community with novel approaches to comparing materials commonly seen in forensic laboratories. The outcomes of this study are anticipated to offer forensic practitioners new and accessible tools for incorporation into current workflows to facilitate systematic and objective analysis and interpretation of forensic materials and support analysts’ opinions

    Data- og ekspertdreven variabelseleksjon for prediktive modeller i helsevesenet : mot økt tolkbarhet i underbestemte maskinlæringsproblemer

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    Modern data acquisition techniques in healthcare generate large collections of data from multiple sources, such as novel diagnosis and treatment methodologies. Some concrete examples are electronic healthcare record systems, genomics, and medical images. This leads to situations with often unstructured, high-dimensional heterogeneous patient cohort data where classical statistical methods may not be sufficient for optimal utilization of the data and informed decision-making. Instead, investigating such data structures with modern machine learning techniques promises to improve the understanding of patient health issues and may provide a better platform for informed decision-making by clinicians. Key requirements for this purpose include (a) sufficiently accurate predictions and (b) model interpretability. Achieving both aspects in parallel is difficult, particularly for datasets with few patients, which are common in the healthcare domain. In such cases, machine learning models encounter mathematically underdetermined systems and may overfit easily on the training data. An important approach to overcome this issue is feature selection, i.e., determining a subset of informative features from the original set of features with respect to the target variable. While potentially raising the predictive performance, feature selection fosters model interpretability by identifying a low number of relevant model parameters to better understand the underlying biological processes that lead to health issues. Interpretability requires that feature selection is stable, i.e., small changes in the dataset do not lead to changes in the selected feature set. A concept to address instability is ensemble feature selection, i.e. the process of repeating the feature selection multiple times on subsets of samples of the original dataset and aggregating results in a meta-model. This thesis presents two approaches for ensemble feature selection, which are tailored towards high-dimensional data in healthcare: the Repeated Elastic Net Technique for feature selection (RENT) and the User-Guided Bayesian Framework for feature selection (UBayFS). While RENT is purely data-driven and builds upon elastic net regularized models, UBayFS is a general framework for ensembles with the capabilities to include expert knowledge in the feature selection process via prior weights and side constraints. A case study modeling the overall survival of cancer patients compares these novel feature selectors and demonstrates their potential in clinical practice. Beyond the selection of single features, UBayFS also allows for selecting whole feature groups (feature blocks) that were acquired from multiple data sources, as those mentioned above. Importance quantification of such feature blocks plays a key role in tracing information about the target variable back to the acquisition modalities. Such information on feature block importance may lead to positive effects on the use of human, technical, and financial resources if systematically integrated into the planning of patient treatment by excluding the acquisition of non-informative features. Since a generalization of feature importance measures to block importance is not trivial, this thesis also investigates and compares approaches for feature block importance rankings. This thesis demonstrates that high-dimensional datasets from multiple data sources in the medical domain can be successfully tackled by the presented approaches for feature selection. Experimental evaluations demonstrate favorable properties of both predictive performance, stability, as well as interpretability of results, which carries a high potential for better data-driven decision support in clinical practice.Moderne datainnsamlingsteknikker i helsevesenet genererer store datamengder fra flere kilder, som for eksempel nye diagnose- og behandlingsmetoder. Noen konkrete eksempler er elektroniske helsejournalsystemer, genomikk og medisinske bilder. Slike pasientkohortdata er ofte ustrukturerte, høydimensjonale og heterogene og hvor klassiske statistiske metoder ikke er tilstrekkelige for optimal utnyttelse av dataene og god informasjonsbasert beslutningstaking. Derfor kan det være lovende å analysere slike datastrukturer ved bruk av moderne maskinlæringsteknikker for å øke forståelsen av pasientenes helseproblemer og for å gi klinikerne en bedre plattform for informasjonsbasert beslutningstaking. Sentrale krav til dette formålet inkluderer (a) tilstrekkelig nøyaktige prediksjoner og (b) modelltolkbarhet. Å oppnå begge aspektene samtidig er vanskelig, spesielt for datasett med få pasienter, noe som er vanlig for data i helsevesenet. I slike tilfeller må maskinlæringsmodeller håndtere matematisk underbestemte systemer og dette kan lett føre til at modellene overtilpasses treningsdataene. Variabelseleksjon er en viktig tilnærming for å håndtere dette ved å identifisere en undergruppe av informative variabler med hensyn til responsvariablen. Samtidig som variabelseleksjonsmetoder kan lede til økt prediktiv ytelse, fremmes modelltolkbarhet ved å identifisere et lavt antall relevante modellparametere. Dette kan gi bedre forståelse av de underliggende biologiske prosessene som fører til helseproblemer. Tolkbarhet krever at variabelseleksjonen er stabil, dvs. at små endringer i datasettet ikke fører til endringer i hvilke variabler som velges. Et konsept for å adressere ustabilitet er ensemblevariableseleksjon, dvs. prosessen med å gjenta variabelseleksjon flere ganger på en delmengde av prøvene i det originale datasett og aggregere resultater i en metamodell. Denne avhandlingen presenterer to tilnærminger for ensemblevariabelseleksjon, som er skreddersydd for høydimensjonale data i helsevesenet: "Repeated Elastic Net Technique for feature selection" (RENT) og "User-Guided Bayesian Framework for feature selection" (UBayFS). Mens RENT er datadrevet og bygger på elastic net-regulariserte modeller, er UBayFS et generelt rammeverk for ensembler som muliggjør inkludering av ekspertkunnskap i variabelseleksjonsprosessen gjennom forhåndsbestemte vekter og sidebegrensninger. En case-studie som modellerer overlevelsen av kreftpasienter sammenligner disse nye variabelseleksjonsmetodene og demonstrerer deres potensiale i klinisk praksis. Utover valg av enkelte variabler gjør UBayFS det også mulig å velge blokker eller grupper av variabler som representerer de ulike datakildene som ble nevnt over. Kvantifisering av viktigheten av variabelgrupper spiller en nøkkelrolle for forståelsen av hvorvidt datakildene er viktige for responsvariablen. Tilgang til slik informasjon kan føre til at bruken av menneskelige, tekniske og økonomiske ressurser kan forbedres dersom informasjonen integreres systematisk i planleggingen av pasientbehandlingen. Slik kan man redusere innsamling av ikke-informative variabler. Siden generaliseringen av viktighet av variabelgrupper ikke er triviell, undersøkes og sammenlignes også tilnærminger for rangering av viktigheten til disse variabelgruppene. Denne avhandlingen viser at høydimensjonale datasett fra flere datakilder fra det medisinske domenet effektivt kan håndteres ved bruk av variabelseleksjonmetodene som er presentert i avhandlingen. Eksperimentene viser at disse kan ha positiv en effekt på både prediktiv ytelse, stabilitet og tolkbarhet av resultatene. Bruken av disse variabelseleksjonsmetodene bærer et stort potensiale for bedre datadrevet beslutningsstøtte i klinisk praksis

    La traduzione specializzata all’opera per una piccola impresa in espansione: la mia esperienza di internazionalizzazione in cinese di Bioretics© S.r.l.

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    Global markets are currently immersed in two all-encompassing and unstoppable processes: internationalization and globalization. While the former pushes companies to look beyond the borders of their country of origin to forge relationships with foreign trading partners, the latter fosters the standardization in all countries, by reducing spatiotemporal distances and breaking down geographical, political, economic and socio-cultural barriers. In recent decades, another domain has appeared to propel these unifying drives: Artificial Intelligence, together with its high technologies aiming to implement human cognitive abilities in machinery. The “Language Toolkit – Le lingue straniere al servizio dell’internazionalizzazione dell’impresa” project, promoted by the Department of Interpreting and Translation (Forlì Campus) in collaboration with the Romagna Chamber of Commerce (Forlì-Cesena and Rimini), seeks to help Italian SMEs make their way into the global market. It is precisely within this project that this dissertation has been conceived. Indeed, its purpose is to present the translation and localization project from English into Chinese of a series of texts produced by Bioretics© S.r.l.: an investor deck, the company website and part of the installation and use manual of the Aliquis© framework software, its flagship product. This dissertation is structured as follows: Chapter 1 presents the project and the company in detail; Chapter 2 outlines the internationalization and globalization processes and the Artificial Intelligence market both in Italy and in China; Chapter 3 provides the theoretical foundations for every aspect related to Specialized Translation, including website localization; Chapter 4 describes the resources and tools used to perform the translations; Chapter 5 proposes an analysis of the source texts; Chapter 6 is a commentary on translation strategies and choices

    Less is More: Restricted Representations for Better Interpretability and Generalizability

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    Deep neural networks are prevalent in supervised learning for large amounts of tasks such as image classification, machine translation and even scientific discovery. Their success is often at the sacrifice of interpretability and generalizability. The increasing complexity of models and involvement of the pre-training process make the inexplicability more imminent. The outstanding performance when labeled data are abundant while prone to overfit when labeled data are limited demonstrates the difficulty of deep neural networks' generalizability to different datasets. This thesis aims to improve interpretability and generalizability by restricting representations. We choose to approach interpretability by focusing on attribution analysis to understand which features contribute to prediction on BERT, and to approach generalizability by focusing on effective methods in a low-data regime. We consider two strategies of restricting representations: (1) adding bottleneck, and (2) introducing compression. Given input x, suppose we want to learn y with the latent representation z (i.e. x→z→y), adding bottleneck means adding function R such that L(R(z)) < L(z) and introducing compression means adding function R so that L(R(y)) < L(y) where L refers to the number of bits. In other words, the restriction is added either in the middle of the pipeline or at the end of it. We first introduce how adding information bottleneck can help attribution analysis and apply it to investigate BERT's behavior on text classification in Chapter 3. We then extend this attribution method to analyze passage reranking in Chapter 4, where we conduct a detailed analysis to understand cross-layer and cross-passage behavior. Adding bottleneck can not only provide insight to understand deep neural networks but can also be used to increase generalizability. In Chapter 5, we demonstrate the equivalence between adding bottleneck and doing neural compression. We then leverage this finding with a framework called Non-Parametric learning by Compression with Latent Variables (NPC-LV), and show how optimizing neural compressors can be used in the non-parametric image classification with few labeled data. To further investigate how compression alone helps non-parametric learning without latent variables (NPC), we carry out experiments with a universal compressor gzip on text classification in Chapter 6. In Chapter 7, we elucidate methods of adopting the perspective of doing compression but without the actual process of compression using T5. Using experimental results in passage reranking, we show that our method is highly effective in a low-data regime when only one thousand query-passage pairs are available. In addition to the weakly supervised scenario, we also extend our method to large language models like GPT under almost no supervision --- in one-shot and zero-shot settings. The experiments show that without extra parameters or in-context learning, GPT can be used for semantic similarity, text classification, and text ranking and outperform strong baselines, which is presented in Chapter 8. The thesis proposes to tackle two big challenges in machine learning --- "interpretability" and "generalizability" through restricting representation. We provide both theoretical derivation and empirical results to show the effectiveness of using information-theoretic approaches. We not only design new algorithms but also provide numerous insights on why and how "compression" is so important in understanding deep neural networks and improving generalizability

    Undergraduate Catalog of Studies, 2022-2023

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