Loan Default Prediction: A Complete Revision of LendingClub

Predicción del default: Una revisión completa de LendingClub El objetivo del estudio es determinar un modelo de predicción de default crediticio usando la base de datos de LendingClub. La metodología consiste en estimar las variables que influyen en el proceso de predicción de préstamos pagados y no pagados utilizando el algoritmo Random Forest. El algoritmo define los factores con mayor influencia sobre el pago o el impago, generando un modelo reducido a nueve predictores relacionados con el historial crediticio del prestatario y el historial de pagos dentro de la plataforma. La medición del desempeño del modelo genera un resultado F1 Macro Score con una precisión mayor al 90% de la muestra de evaluación. Las contribuciones de este estudio incluyen, el haber utilizado la base de datos completa de toda la operación de LendingClub disponible, para obtener variables trascendentales para la tarea de clasificación y predicción, que pueden ser útiles para estimar la morosidad en el mercado de préstamos de persona a persona. Podemos sacar dos conclusiones importantes, primero confirmamos la capacidad del algoritmo Random Forest para predecir problemas de clasificación binaria en base a métricas de rendimiento obtenidas y segundo, denotamos la influencia de las variables tradicionales de puntuación de crédito en los problemas de predicción por defecto.The study aims to determine a credit default prediction model using data from LendingClub. The model estimates the effect of the influential variables on the prediction process of paid and unpaid loans. We implemented the random forest algorithm to identify the variables with the most significant influence on payment or default, addressing nine predictors related to the borrower's credit and payment background. Results confirm that the model’s performance generates a F1 Macro Score that accomplishes 90% in accuracy for the evaluation sample. Contributions of this study include using the complete dataset of the entire operation of LendingClub available, to obtain transcendental variables for the classification and prediction task, which can be helpful to estimate the default in the person-to-person loan market. We can draw two important conclusions, first we confirm the Random Forest algorithm's capacity to predict binary classification problems based on performance metrics obtained and second, we denote the influence of traditional credit scoring variables on default prediction problems

Deep Learning Model Implementation Using Convolutional Neural Network Algorithm for Default P2P Lending Prediction

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending is one of the innovations in the field of fintech that offers microloan services through online channels without intermediaries. P2P  lending facilitates the lending and borrowing process between borrowers and lenders, but on the other hand, there is a threat that can harm lenders, namely default.  Defaults on  P2P  lending platforms result in significant losses for lenders and pose a threat to the overall efficiency of the peer-to-peer lending system. So it is essential to have an understanding of such risk management methods. However, designing feature extractors with very complicated information about borrowers and loan products takes a lot of work. In this study, we present a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture for predicting default in P2P lending, with the goal of extracting features automatically and improving performance. CNN is a deep learning technique for classifying complex information that automatically extracts discriminative features from input data using convolutional operations. The dataset used is the Lending Club dataset from P2P lending platforms in America containing 9,578 data. The results of the model performance evaluation got an accuracy of 85.43%. This study shows reasonably decent results in predicting p2p lending based on CNN. This research is expected to contribute to the development of new methods of deep learning that are more complex and effective in predicting risks on P2P lending platforms

Cosigners Help

We investigate how well social collateral does as an alternative to traditional physical collateral. We do so by studying cosigned loans - a borrower´s loan is backed by the personal guarantee of a cosigner. We use a regression discontinuity approach with data from South Indian bidding Roscas. Our main finding is that cosigners do indeed provide social collateral: doubling the number of cosigners halves the probability of arrears for high risk borrowers. We then distinguish between different theories of social collateral. Cosigners may be e¤ective as a monitoring device (a borrower would pay to rid herself of the nuisance of a cosigner) or as an insurance device (a borrower would pay for the benefit of a cosigner). We show that these two interpretations of cosigning have different empirical predictions in the context of a bidding Roscas. We find support for the insurance role of cosigners. --credit,default,cosigner,rosca