Long Memory Options: Valuation

This paper graphically demonstrates the significant impact of the observed financial market persistence, i.e., long term memory or dependence, on European option valuation. Many empirical researchers have observed non-Fickian degrees of persistence or long memory in the financial markets different from the Fickian neutral independence (i.i.d.) of the returns innovations assumption of Black-Scholes' geometric Brownian motion assumption. Moreover, Elliott and van der Hoek (2003) have now also provided a theoretical framework for incorporating these findings in the Black-Scholes risk-neutral valuation framework. This paper provides the first graphical demonstration why and how such long term memory phenomena change European option values and provides thereby a basis for informed long term memory arbitrage. Risk-neutral valuation is equivalent to valuation by real world probabilities. By using a mono-fractional Brownian motion, it is easy to incorporate the various degrees of persistence into the binomial and Black-Scholes pricing formulas. Long memory options are of considerable importance in Corporate remuneration packages, since warrants are written on a company's own shares for long expiration periods. Therefore, we recommend that for a proper valuation of such warrants, the degrees of persistence of the companies' share markets are measured and properly incorporated in the warrant valuation.Options, Long Memory, Persistence, Hurst Exponent, Executive Remuneration

Blocks adjustment -- reduction of bias and variance of detrended fluctuation analysis using Monte Carlo simulation

The length of minimal and maximal blocks equally distant on log-log scale versus fluctuation function considerably influences bias and variance of DFA. Through a number of extensive Monte Carlo simulations and different fractional Brownian motion/fractional Gaussian noise generators, we found the pair of minimal and maximal blocks that minimizes the sum of mean-squared error of estimated Hurst exponents for the series of length N=2^p, p=7,...,15. Sensitivity of DFA to sort-range correlations was examined using ARFIMA(p,d,q) generator. Due to the bias of the estimator for anti-persistent processes, we narrowed down the range of Hurst exponent to 1/2<=H< 1.Comment: 20 pages, 14 figures, accepted for publication in Physica A: August 9, 200

Long Memory Options: LM Evidence and Simulations

This paper demonstrates the impact of the observed financial market persistence or long term memory on European option valuation by simple simulation. Many empirical researchers have observed the non-Fickian degrees of persistence or long memory in the financial markets different from the Fickian neutral independence (i.i.d.) of the returns innovations assumption of Black-Scholes' geometric Brownian motion assumption. Moreover, Elliott and van der Hoek (2003) provide a theoretical framework for incorporating these findings into the Black- Scholes risk-neutral valuation framework. This paper provides the first graphical demonstration why and how such long term memory phenomena change European option values and provides thereby a basis for informed long term memory arbitrage. By using a simple mono-fractal Fractional Brownian motion, it is easy to incorporate the various degrees of persistence into the Black-Scholes pricing formula. Long memory options are of considerable importance in corporate remuneration packages, since stock options are written on a company's own shares for long expiration periods. It makes a significant difference in the valuation when an option is 'blue' or when it is 'red.' For a proper valuation of such stock options, the degrees of persistence of the companies' share markets must be precisely measured and properly incorporated in the warrant valuation, otherwise substantial pricing errors may result.Options, Long Memory, Persistence, Hurst Exponent, Identification, Simulation, Executive Remuneration

On the relationship between the Hurst exponent, the ratio of the mean square successive difference to the variance, and the number of turning points

The long range dependence of the fractional Brownian motion (fBm), fractional Gaussian noise (fGn), and differentiated fGn (DfGn) is described by the Hurst exponent $H$. Considering the realisations of these three processes as time series, they might be described by their statistical features, such as half of the ratio of the mean square successive difference to the variance, $\mathcal{A}$, and the number of turning points, $T$. This paper investigates the relationships between $\mathcal{A}$ and $H$, and between $T$ and $H$. It is found numerically that the formulae $\mathcal{A}(H)=a{\rm e}^{bH}$ in case of fBm, and $\mathcal{A}(H)=a+bH^c$ for fGn and DfGn, describe well the $\mathcal{A}(H)$ relationship. When $T(H)$ is considered, no simple formula is found, and it is empirically found that among polynomials, the fourth and second order description applies best. The most relevant finding is that when plotted in the space of $(\mathcal{A},T)$, the three process types form separate branches. Hence, it is examined whether $\mathcal{A}$ and $T$ may serve as Hurst exponent indicators. Some real world data (stock market indices, sunspot numbers, chaotic time series) are analyzed for this purpose, and it is found that the $H$'s estimated using the $H(\mathcal{A})$ relations (expressed as inverted $\mathcal{A}(H)$ functions) are consistent with the $H$'s extracted with the well known wavelet approach. This allows to efficiently estimate the Hurst exponent based on fast and easy to compute $\mathcal{A}$ and $T$, given that the process type: fBm, fGn or DfGn, is correctly classified beforehand. Finally, it is suggested that the $\mathcal{A}(H)$ relation for fGn and DfGn might be an exact (shifted) $3/2$ power-law.Comment: 20 pages in one-column format, 7 figures; matches the version accepted for publicatio

Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis of High-Frequency Asian FX Rates, Summer 1997

FX pricing processes are nonstationary and their frequency characteristics are time-dependent. Most do not conform to geometric Brownian motion, since they exhibit a scaling law with a Hurst exponent between zero and 0.5 and fractal dimensions between 1.5 and 2. This paper uses wavelet multiresolution analysis, with Haar wavelets, to analyze the nonstationarity (time-dependence) and self-similarity (scale-dependence) of intra-day Asian currency spot exchange rates. These are the ask and bid quotes of the currencies of eight Asian countries (Japan, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand), and of Germany for comparison, for the crisis period May 1, 1998 - August 31, 1997, provided by Telerate (U.S. dollar is the numeraire). Their time-scale dependent spectra, which are localized in time, are observed in wavelet based scalograms. The FX increments can be characterized by the irregularity of their singularities. This degrees of irregularity are measured by homogeneous Hurst exponents. These critical exponents are used to identify the fractal dimension, relative stability and long term dependence of each Asian FX series. The invariance of each identified Hurst exponent is tested by comparing it at varying time and scale (frequency) resolutions. It appears that almost all FX markets show anti-persistent pricing behavior. The anchor currencies of the D-mark and Japanese Yen are ultra-efficient in the sense of being most anti-persistent. The Taiwanese dollar is the most persistent, and thus unpredictable, most likely due to administrative control. FX markets exhibit these non- linear, non-Gaussian dynamic structures, long term dependence, high kurtosis, and high degrees of non-informational (noise) trading, possibly because of frequent capital flows induced by non-synchronized regional business cycles, rapidly changing political risks, unexpected informational shocks to investment opportunities, and, in particular, investment strategies synthesizing interregional claims using cash swaps with different duration horizons.foreign exchange markets, anti-persistence, long-term dependence, multi-resolution analysis, wavelets, time-scale analysis, scaling laws, irregularity analysis, randomness, Asia

Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis of High-Frequency FX Rates, Summer 1997

FX pricing processes are nonstationary and their frequency characteristics are time-dependent. Most do not conform to geometric Brownian motion, since they exhibit a scaling law with a Hurst exponent between zero and 0.5 and fractal dimensions between 1.5 and 2. This paper uses wavelet multiresolution analysis, with Haar wavelets, to analyze the nonstationarity (time-dependence) and self-similarity (scale-dependence) of intra-day Asian currency spot exchange rates.foreign exchange, anti-persistence, multi-resolution analysis, wavelets, Asia

Identification of the multiscale fractional Brownian motion with biomechanical applications

In certain applications, for instance biomechanics, turbulence, finance, or Internet traffic, it seems suitable to model the data by a generalization of a fractional Brownian motion for which the Hurst parameter $H$ is depending on the frequency as a piece-wise constant function. These processes are called multiscale fractional Brownian motions. In this contribution, we provide a statistical study of the multiscale fractional Brownian motions. We develop a method based on wavelet analysis. By using this method, we find initially the frequency changes, then we estimate the different parameters and afterwards we test the goodness-of-fit. Lastly, we give the numerical algorithm. Biomechanical data are then studied with these new tools