Causal modeling and prediction over event streams

In recent years, there has been a growing need for causal analysis in many modern stream applications such as web page click monitoring, patient health care monitoring, stock market prediction, electric grid monitoring, and network intrusion detection systems. The detection and prediction of causal relationships help in monitoring, planning, decision making, and prevention of unwanted consequences. An event stream is a continuous unbounded sequence of event instances. The availability of a large amount of continuous data along with high data throughput poses new challenges related to causal modeling over event streams, such as (1) the need for incremental causal inference for the unbounded data, (2) the need for fast causal inference for the high throughput data, and (3) the need for real-time prediction of effects from the events seen so far in the continuous event streams. This dissertation research addresses these three problems by focusing on utilizing temporal precedence information which is readily available in event streams: (1) an incremental causal model to update the causal network incrementally with the arrival of a new batch of events instead of storing the complete set of events seen so far and building the causal network from scratch with those stored events, (2) a fast causal model to speed up the causal network inference time, and (3) a real-time top-k predictive query processing mechanism to find the most probable k effects with the highest scores by proposing a run-time causal inference mechanism which addresses cyclic causal relationships. In this dissertation, the motivation, related work, proposed approaches, and the results are presented in each of the three problems

Supervised Learning in Spiking Neural Networks with Phase-Change Memory Synapses

Spiking neural networks (SNN) are artificial computational models that have been inspired by the brain's ability to naturally encode and process information in the time domain. The added temporal dimension is believed to render them more computationally efficient than the conventional artificial neural networks, though their full computational capabilities are yet to be explored. Recently, computational memory architectures based on non-volatile memory crossbar arrays have shown great promise to implement parallel computations in artificial and spiking neural networks. In this work, we experimentally demonstrate for the first time, the feasibility to realize high-performance event-driven in-situ supervised learning systems using nanoscale and stochastic phase-change synapses. Our SNN is trained to recognize audio signals of alphabets encoded using spikes in the time domain and to generate spike trains at precise time instances to represent the pixel intensities of their corresponding images. Moreover, with a statistical model capturing the experimental behavior of the devices, we investigate architectural and systems-level solutions for improving the training and inference performance of our computational memory-based system. Combining the computational potential of supervised SNNs with the parallel compute power of computational memory, the work paves the way for next-generation of efficient brain-inspired systems

Detecting and Explaining Causes From Text For a Time Series Event

Explaining underlying causes or effects about events is a challenging but valuable task. We define a novel problem of generating explanations of a time series event by (1) searching cause and effect relationships of the time series with textual data and (2) constructing a connecting chain between them to generate an explanation. To detect causal features from text, we propose a novel method based on the Granger causality of time series between features extracted from text such as N-grams, topics, sentiments, and their composition. The generation of the sequence of causal entities requires a commonsense causative knowledge base with efficient reasoning. To ensure good interpretability and appropriate lexical usage we combine symbolic and neural representations, using a neural reasoning algorithm trained on commonsense causal tuples to predict the next cause step. Our quantitative and human analysis show empirical evidence that our method successfully extracts meaningful causality relationships between time series with textual features and generates appropriate explanation between them.Comment: Accepted at EMNLP 201

A Causal And-Or Graph Model for Visibility Fluent Reasoning in Tracking Interacting Objects

Tracking humans that are interacting with the other subjects or environment remains unsolved in visual tracking, because the visibility of the human of interests in videos is unknown and might vary over time. In particular, it is still difficult for state-of-the-art human trackers to recover complete human trajectories in crowded scenes with frequent human interactions. In this work, we consider the visibility status of a subject as a fluent variable, whose change is mostly attributed to the subject's interaction with the surrounding, e.g., crossing behind another object, entering a building, or getting into a vehicle, etc. We introduce a Causal And-Or Graph (C-AOG) to represent the causal-effect relations between an object's visibility fluent and its activities, and develop a probabilistic graph model to jointly reason the visibility fluent change (e.g., from visible to invisible) and track humans in videos. We formulate this joint task as an iterative search of a feasible causal graph structure that enables fast search algorithm, e.g., dynamic programming method. We apply the proposed method on challenging video sequences to evaluate its capabilities of estimating visibility fluent changes of subjects and tracking subjects of interests over time. Results with comparisons demonstrate that our method outperforms the alternative trackers and can recover complete trajectories of humans in complicated scenarios with frequent human interactions.Comment: accepted by CVPR 201

DxNAT - Deep Neural Networks for Explaining Non-Recurring Traffic Congestion

Non-recurring traffic congestion is caused by temporary disruptions, such as accidents, sports games, adverse weather, etc. We use data related to real-time traffic speed, jam factors (a traffic congestion indicator), and events collected over a year from Nashville, TN to train a multi-layered deep neural network. The traffic dataset contains over 900 million data records. The network is thereafter used to classify the real-time data and identify anomalous operations. Compared with traditional approaches of using statistical or machine learning techniques, our model reaches an accuracy of 98.73 percent when identifying traffic congestion caused by football games. Our approach first encodes the traffic across a region as a scaled image. After that the image data from different timestamps is fused with event- and time-related data. Then a crossover operator is used as a data augmentation method to generate training datasets with more balanced classes. Finally, we use the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to tune the sensitivity of the classifier. We present the analysis of the training time and the inference time separately

Local Tomography of Large Networks under the Low-Observability Regime

This article studies the problem of reconstructing the topology of a network of interacting agents via observations of the state-evolution of the agents. We focus on the large-scale network setting with the additional constraint of $partial$ observations, where only a small fraction of the agents can be feasibly observed. The goal is to infer the underlying subnetwork of interactions and we refer to this problem as $local$ $tomography$. In order to study the large-scale setting, we adopt a proper stochastic formulation where the unobserved part of the network is modeled as an Erd\"{o}s-R\'enyi random graph, while the observable subnetwork is left arbitrary. The main result of this work is establishing that, under this setting, local tomography is actually possible with high probability, provided that certain conditions on the network model are met (such as stability and symmetry of the network combination matrix). Remarkably, such conclusion is established under the $low$-$observability$ $regime$, where the cardinality of the observable subnetwork is fixed, while the size of the overall network scales to infinity.Comment: To appear in IEEE Transactions on Information Theor