Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics

A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework.Comment: 36 pages, 5 figures. v2: Fixed typo in caption of figure 1. v3: Further typo fixes. v4: Revised in response to referee

ACMiner: Extraction and Analysis of Authorization Checks in Android's Middleware

Billions of users rely on the security of the Android platform to protect phones, tablets, and many different types of consumer electronics. While Android's permission model is well studied, the enforcement of the protection policy has received relatively little attention. Much of this enforcement is spread across system services, taking the form of hard-coded checks within their implementations. In this paper, we propose Authorization Check Miner (ACMiner), a framework for evaluating the correctness of Android's access control enforcement through consistency analysis of authorization checks. ACMiner combines program and text analysis techniques to generate a rich set of authorization checks, mines the corresponding protection policy for each service entry point, and uses association rule mining at a service granularity to identify inconsistencies that may correspond to vulnerabilities. We used ACMiner to study the AOSP version of Android 7.1.1 to identify 28 vulnerabilities relating to missing authorization checks. In doing so, we demonstrate ACMiner's ability to help domain experts process thousands of authorization checks scattered across millions of lines of code

Reasoning of non- and pre-linguistic creatures: How much do the experiments tell us?

If a conclusion was reached that creatures without a language capability exhibit some form of a capability for logic, this would shed a new light on the relationship between logic, language, and thought. Recent experimental attempts to test whether some animals, as well as pre-linguistic human infants, are capable of exclusionary reasoning are taken to support exactly that conclusion. The paper discusses the analyses and conclusions of two such studies: Call’s (2004) two cups task, and Mody and Carey’s (2016) four cups task. My paper exposes hidden assumptions within these analyses, which enable the authors to settle on the explanation which assigns logical capabilities to the participants of the studies, as opposed to the explanations which do not. The paper then demonstrates that the competing explanations of the experimental results are theoretically underdeveloped, rendering them unclear in their predictions concerning the behavior of cognitive subjects, and thus difficult to distinguish by use of experiments. Additionally, it is questioned whether the explanations are rivals at all, i.e. whether they compete to explain the cognitive processes of the same level. The contribution of the paper is conceptual. Its aim is to clear up the concepts involved in these analyses, in order to avoid oversimplified or premature conclusions about the cognitive abilities of pre- and non-linguistic creatures. It is also meant to show that the theoretical space surrounding the issues involved might be much more diverse and unknown than many of these studies imply

A combination of transcriptional and microRNA regulation improves the stability of the relative concentrations of target genes

It is well known that, under suitable conditions, microRNAs are able to fine tune the relative concentration of their targets to any desired value. We show that this function is particularly effective when one of the targets is a Transcription Factor (TF) which regulates the other targets. This combination defines a new class of feed-forward loops (FFLs) in which the microRNA plays the role of master regulator. Using both deterministic and stochastic equations we show that these FFLs are indeed able not only to fine-tune the TF/target ratio to any desired value as a function of the miRNA concentration but also, thanks to the peculiar topology of the circuit, to ensures the stability of this ratio against stochastic fluctuations. These two effects are due to the interplay between the direct transcriptional regulation and the indirect TF/Target interaction due to competition of TF and target for miRNA binding (the so called "sponge effect"). We then perform a genome wide search of these FFLs in the human regulatory network and show that they are characterizedby a very peculiar enrichment pattern. In particular they are strongly enriched in all the situations in which the TF and its target have to be precisely kept at the same concentration notwithstanding the environmental noise. As an example we discuss the FFL involving E2F1 as Transcription Factor, RB1 as target and miR-17 family as master regulator. These FFLs ensure a tight control of the E2F/RB ratio which in turns ensures the stability of the transition from the G0/G1 to the S phase in quiescent cells.Comment: 23 pages, 10 figure

A Fault Tolerant System for an Integrated Avionics Sensor Configuration

An aircraft sensor fault tolerant system methodology for the Transport Systems Research Vehicle in a Microwave Landing System (MLS) environment is described. The fault tolerant system provides reliable estimates in the presence of possible failures both in ground-based navigation aids, and in on-board flight control and inertial sensors. Sensor failures are identified by utilizing the analytic relationships between the various sensors arising from the aircraft point mass equations of motion. The estimation and failure detection performance of the software implementation (called FINDS) of the developed system was analyzed on a nonlinear digital simulation of the research aircraft. Simulation results showing the detection performance of FINDS, using a dual redundant sensor compliment, are presented for bias, hardover, null, ramp, increased noise and scale factor failures. In general, the results show that FINDS can distinguish between normal operating sensor errors and failures while providing an excellent detection speed for bias failures in the MLS, indicated airspeed, attitude and radar altimeter sensors