Unconventional gas: potential energy market impacts in the European Union

In the interest of effective policymaking, this report seeks to clarify certain controversies and identify key gaps in the evidence-base relating to unconventional gas. The scope of this report is restricted to the economic impact of unconventional gas on energy markets. As such, it principally addresses such issues as the energy mix, energy prices, supplies, consumption, and trade flows. Whilst this study touches on coal bed methane and tight gas, its predominant focus is on shale gas, which the evidence at this time suggests will be the form of unconventional gas with the most growth potential in the short- to medium-term. This report considers the prospects for the indigenous production of shale gas within the EU-27 Member States. It evaluates the available evidence on resource size, extractive technology, resource access and market access. This report also considers the implications for the EU of large-scale unconventional gas production in other parts of the world. This acknowledges the fact that many changes in the dynamics of energy supply can only be understood in the broader global context. It also acknowledges that the EU is a major importer of energy, and that it is therefore heavily affected by developments in global energy markets that are largely out of its control.JRC.F.3-Energy securit

Prospects for Nuclear Microreactors: A Review of the Technology, Economics, and Regulatory Considerations

The nuclear energy sector is actively developing a new class of very small advanced reactors, called microreactors. This technology has disruptive potential as an alternative to carbon-intensive energy technologies based on its mobility and transportability, resilience, and independence from the grid, as well as its capacity for long refueling intervals and low-carbon emissions. Microreactors may extend nuclear energy to a new set of international customers, many of which are located where energy is at a price premium and/or limited to fossil sources. Developers are creating designs geared toward factory production where quality and costs may be optimized. This paper reviews the existing literature on the technology, potential markets, economic viability, and regulatory and institutional challenges of nuclear microreactors. The technological characteristics are reviewed to describe the wide range of microreactor designs and to distinguish them from large nuclear power plants and small modular reactor (SMR) designs. The expanding literature on the cost competitiveness of SMRs relative to other nuclear and nonnuclear technologies is also reviewed, with an emphasis on understanding the challenges of making microreactors economically viable. A major part of this study focuses on the deployment potential of microreactors across global markets. Previous work on SMR market assessment is reviewed, and the adaptation of these studies to the deployment of microreactors is more fully examined. Characteristics that differentiate microreactors from SMRs and other energy technologies may make microreactors suitable for unique and localized applications if they can be economically competitive with other energy technologies, as well as meet regulatory and other societal requirements. Recent research on global markets for microreactors is evaluated and extended in this paper to a previously unevaluated use case in which microreactors can play a role in grid resiliency and integration with renewables. Further challenges associated with the commercialization of microreactors, in addition to cost competitiveness, are explored by examining the regulatory and safety challenges of microreactor deployment

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project Power Alternatives Study : Task 1 Report

This report presents the results of Task 1 of a study undertaken by Acres American Incorporated to evaluate alternative methods of providing electrical energy in lieu of the Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project. It is understood that this report will ultimately become part of the Environmental Impact Statement for the project

Evaluation of efficiency improvements and performance of coal-fired power plants with post-combustion CO2 capture

The power sector needs to be decarbonised by 2050 to meet the global target for greenhouse gas emission reduction and prevent climate change. With fossil fuels expected to play a vital role in the future energy portfolio and high efficiency penalties related to mature CO2 capture technologies, this research aimed at evaluating the efficiency improvements and alternate operating modes of the coal-fired power plants (CFPP) retrofitted with post-combustion CO2 capture. To meet this aim, process models of the CFPPs, chilled ammonia process (CAP) and calcium looping (CaL) were developed in Aspen Plus® and benchmarked against data available in the literature. Also, the process model of chemical solvent scrubbing using monoethanolamine (MEA) was adapted from previous studies. Base-load analysis of the 580 MWel CFPP retrofits revealed that if novel CAP retrofit configurations were employed, in which a new auxiliary steam turbine was coupled with the boiler feedwater pump for extracted steam pressure control, the net efficiency penalty was 8.7–8.8% points. This was close to the 9.5% points in the MEA retrofit scenario. Conversely, CaL retrofit resulted in a net efficiency penalty of 6.7–7.9% points, depending on the fuel used in the calciner. Importantly, when the optimised supercritical CO2 cycle was used instead of the steam cycle for heat recovery, this figure was reduced to 5.8% points. Considering part-load operation of the 660 MWel CFPP and uncertainty in the process model inputs, the most probable net efficiency penalties of the CaL and MEA retrofits were 9.5% and 11.5% points, respectively. Importantly, in the CaL retrofit scenarios, the net power output was found to be around 40% higher than that of the CFPP without CO2 capture and double than that for the MEA retrofit scenario. Such performance of the CaL retrofit scenario led to higher profit than that of the 660 MWel CFPP without CO2 capture, especially if its inherent energy storage capability was utilised. Hence, this study revealed that CaL has the potential to significantly reduce the efficiency and economic penalties associated with mature CO2 capture technologies

SUSTAINABLE DISPOSAL OF COAL PROCESSING WASTE STREAMS

Modern coal preparation facilities incorporate a wide array of solid-solid and solid-liquid separation processes for rejecting mineral matter to meet market specifications. The coarse mineral matter is typically placed into engineered refuse piles whereas the fine refuse is either stored in impoundments or co-disposed with the coarse refuse. The discharge water from the refuse material represents an environmental concern due to the potential release of trace elements, and the subsequent elevation of total dissolved solids and conductivity. The research findings reported in this dissertation addresses sustainable coal processing waste disposal through using strategies aimed at minimizing the environmental impacts. To provide an accurate and inexpensive method to assess the potential environmental effects of a given waste material, a conductivity screening-level test was modified to incorporate the impact of particle surface area. The test was used on various waste streams as well as the particle size and density fractions of each waste stream to identify environmentally sensitive components that can be separated from the bulk and isolated to prevent negative environmental impacts. The results were subsequently evaluated for long term mobility of trace elements under different disposal scenarios: (i) static leaching tests designed to simulate the quiescent conditions in a stable impoundment, and (ii) a dynamic test to simulate waste materials exposed to the atmosphere in variable wet/dry storage conditions. The results indicated that liberating, separating and isolating the highest density fractions (\u3e2.68 SG) which represents less than 5% of the coal refuse materials results in significant abatement of total dissolved solids and conductivity. Required modifications of the coal processing plants were suggested to segregate and subsequently isolate the environmentally sensitive fractions from the remaining refuse material

Renewable energy in North Africa: Modeling of future electricity scenarios and the impact on manufacturing and employment

The transition of the North African electricity system towards renewable energy technologies is analyzed in this thesis. Large potentials of photovoltaics (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and onshore wind power provide the opportunity to achieve a long-term shift from conventional power sources to a highly interconnected and sustainable electricity system based on renewable energy sources (RES). A multi-dimensional analysis evaluates the economic and technical effects on the electricity market as well as the socio-economic impact on manufacturing and employment caused by the large deployment of renewable energy technologies. The integration of renewable energy (RE) into the electricity system is modeled in a linear optimization model RESlion which minimizes total system costs of the long-term expansion planning and the hourly generation dispatch problem. With this model, the long-term portfolio mix of technologies, their site selection, required transmission capacities and the hourly operation are analyzed. The focus is set on the integration of renewable energy in the electricity systems of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt with the option to export electricity to Southern European countries. The model results of RESlion show that a very equal portfolio mix consisting of PV, CSP and onshore wind power is optimal in long-term scenarios for the electricity system. Until the year 2050, renewable energy sources dominate with over 70% the electricity generation due to their cost competiveness to conventional power sources. In the case of flexible and dispatchable electricity exports to Europe, all three RE technologies are used by the model at a medium cost perspective. The socio-economic impact of the scenarios is evaluated by a decision model (RETMD) for local manufacturing and job creation in the renewable energy sector which is developed by incorporating findings from expert interviews in the RE industry sector. The electricity scenarios are assessed regarding their potential to create local economic impact and local jobs in manufacturing RE components and constructing RE power plants. With 40,000 to 100,000 new jobs in the RE sector of North African countries, scenarios with substantial RE deployment can provide enormous benefits to the labor market and lead to additional economic growth. The deployment of renewable energy sources in North Africa is consequently accelerated and facilitated by finding a trade-off between an optimal technology portfolio from an electricity system perspective and the opportunities through local manufacturing. By developing two model approaches for evaluating the effects of renewable energy technologies in the electricity system and in the industrial sector, this thesis contributes to the literature on energy economics and energy policy for the large-scale integration of renewable energy in North Africa.:Abstract iii Acknowledgement iv Table of contents v List of tables ix List of figures xii List of abbreviations xvi 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Renewable energy in North Africa 2 1.2 Research questions and aim of this thesis 3 1.2.1 Modeling of electricity systems 4 1.2.2 Modeling of manufacturing and employment impact 6 1.2.3 Optimal renewable energy scenarios 6 1.3 Related research 7 1.4 Structure of thesis 7 2 Modeling fundamentals for electricity systems with renewable energy sources 9 2.1 Energy system modeling 9 2.2 Electricity models 16 2.2.1 Classifications and taxonomy 17 2.2.2 Differences between operation models and planning models 20 2.2.3 Typical modeling approaches 21 2.3 Optimization models 23 2.3.1 Basic model structure 23 2.3.2 Objective functions of electricity models 24 2.3.3 Technical aspects of electricity systems as models constraints 26 2.3.4 Combining different objectives in energy scenarios 27 2.4 Models for high shares of renewable energy 28 2.5 Models for North African electricity systems 31 2.6 Conclusions for model development 34 3 Electricity system of North Africa 36 3.1 Market structure 36 3.2 National targets for renewable energy 40 3.2.1 Morocco 40 3.2.2 Algeria 41 3.2.3 Tunisia 42 3.2.4 Libya 42 3.2.5 Egypt 43 3.3 Long-term development of electricity demand 44 3.4 Electricity exports to Europe 47 3.5 Geopolitical risks for the electricity system 51 4 Development of the electricity market model RESlion 53 4.1 Model requirements and modeling goals 53 4.2 Modeling of renewable energy technologies 56 4.2.1 Onshore wind power plants and wind resources 59 4.2.2 PV power plants and solar resources 61 4.2.3 CSP plants and solar resources 63 4.2.4 Hydro power plants and energy storage systems 65 4.3 General model approach of RESlion 65 4.4 Model description of RESlion 69 4.4.1 Introduction to the model structure 69 4.4.2 Temporal coverage 70 4.4.3 Objective function 72 4.4.4 Technology independent model constraints 74 4.4.5 Regional electricity exchange: Transmission lines 76 4.4.6 Renewable energy technologies 78 4.4.7 Hydro and storage power plants 80 4.4.8 Uncertainty of input parameters and assumptions 81 4.5 Modeling of expansion planning 83 4.6 Modeling of detailed hourly generation dispatch 83 4.7 Extension options to a Mixed Integer Linear Programming model 84 4.8 Solver selection and implementation environment 85 5 Model-based analysis of future electricity scenarios for North Africa 86 5.1 Scenario assumptions 86 5.2 Scenario definition 89 5.3 Technical and economic input data 94 5.4 Model adjustment 99 5.4.1 Electricity generation in reference year 2010 99 5.4.2 Testing of results with detailed hourly generation dispatch 100 5.5 Electricity scenarios for North Africa by 2050 102 5.5.1 Development of the generation system 102 5.5.2 System and generation costs 106 5.5.3 Site selection of RES generation capacities 108 5.5.4 Regional transmission lines 114 5.5.5 Energy storage systems 118 5.5.6 Technology specific generation 119 5.5.7 CO2 emissions 126 5.6 Sensitivity analyses 126 5.6.1 Adaption of market conditions: Split of electricity markets 127 5.6.2 Technology focus 127 5.6.3 Adaption of cost trends for fossil fuels, transmission lines and storage systems 129 5.7 Technology specific findings for CSP, PV and wind power 131 5.7.1 Typical sites and locations for electricity generation from RES 131 5.7.2 Influence of wind speeds and solar irradiation 131 5.7.3 Interactions with conventional power plants 132 5.8 Electricity scenarios with export to Europe 133 5.9 Discussion of RESlion model and its results 139 6 Model development for socio-economic impact analysis 142 6.1 The idea of combining a cost-optimized electricity system with a socio-economic analysis 142 6.2 Literature review and terminology 145 6.3 Data acquisition and further studies 148 6.4 Model description of RETMD 151 6.4.1 Model objectives 151 6.4.2 Model structure and decision modeling 152 6.4.3 Model limitations and uncertainties 156 6.5 Data input of RETMD 157 6.5.1 Construction of reference power plants 157 6.5.2 Operation of reference power plants 159 6.5.3 Status quo of local manufacturing in recent RE projects 160 6.6 Sensitivity of RETMD on market size and know-how 161 6.7 Discussion of model achievements 163 7 Manufacturing and employment impact of optimized electricity scenarios 165 7.1 Demand scenarios for the RE markets from 2012 to 2030 165 7.2 Economic impact and employment creation 166 7.3 Technology specific development of local manufacturing 168 7.4 Country specific development of local manufacturing 172 7.5 Potentials of local manufacturing in each scenarios 174 7.6 Local economic impact 176 7.7 Local employment impact 177 7.8 Evaluation of scenario results 181 7.9 Electricity system analysis and RE manufacturing: Results and discussion of the combined analysis 183 8 Conclusions and outlook 186 8.1 Conclusion on model developments 186 8.2 Conclusion on renewable energy in North Africa 187 8.3 Outlook and further research 189 9 Bibliography 191 10 Appendix 21

Renewable energy in North Africa: Modeling of future electricity scenarios and the impact on manufacturing and employment

The transition of the North African electricity system towards renewable energy technologies is analyzed in this thesis. Large potentials of photovoltaics (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and onshore wind power provide the opportunity to achieve a long-term shift from conventional power sources to a highly interconnected and sustainable electricity system based on renewable energy sources (RES). A multi-dimensional analysis evaluates the economic and technical effects on the electricity market as well as the socio-economic impact on manufacturing and employment caused by the large deployment of renewable energy technologies. The integration of renewable energy (RE) into the electricity system is modeled in a linear optimization model RESlion which minimizes total system costs of the long-term expansion planning and the hourly generation dispatch problem. With this model, the long-term portfolio mix of technologies, their site selection, required transmission capacities and the hourly operation are analyzed. The focus is set on the integration of renewable energy in the electricity systems of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt with the option to export electricity to Southern European countries. The model results of RESlion show that a very equal portfolio mix consisting of PV, CSP and onshore wind power is optimal in long-term scenarios for the electricity system. Until the year 2050, renewable energy sources dominate with over 70% the electricity generation due to their cost competiveness to conventional power sources. In the case of flexible and dispatchable electricity exports to Europe, all three RE technologies are used by the model at a medium cost perspective. The socio-economic impact of the scenarios is evaluated by a decision model (RETMD) for local manufacturing and job creation in the renewable energy sector which is developed by incorporating findings from expert interviews in the RE industry sector. The electricity scenarios are assessed regarding their potential to create local economic impact and local jobs in manufacturing RE components and constructing RE power plants. With 40,000 to 100,000 new jobs in the RE sector of North African countries, scenarios with substantial RE deployment can provide enormous benefits to the labor market and lead to additional economic growth. The deployment of renewable energy sources in North Africa is consequently accelerated and facilitated by finding a trade-off between an optimal technology portfolio from an electricity system perspective and the opportunities through local manufacturing. By developing two model approaches for evaluating the effects of renewable energy technologies in the electricity system and in the industrial sector, this thesis contributes to the literature on energy economics and energy policy for the large-scale integration of renewable energy in North Africa.:Abstract iii Acknowledgement iv Table of contents v List of tables ix List of figures xii List of abbreviations xvi 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Renewable energy in North Africa 2 1.2 Research questions and aim of this thesis 3 1.2.1 Modeling of electricity systems 4 1.2.2 Modeling of manufacturing and employment impact 6 1.2.3 Optimal renewable energy scenarios 6 1.3 Related research 7 1.4 Structure of thesis 7 2 Modeling fundamentals for electricity systems with renewable energy sources 9 2.1 Energy system modeling 9 2.2 Electricity models 16 2.2.1 Classifications and taxonomy 17 2.2.2 Differences between operation models and planning models 20 2.2.3 Typical modeling approaches 21 2.3 Optimization models 23 2.3.1 Basic model structure 23 2.3.2 Objective functions of electricity models 24 2.3.3 Technical aspects of electricity systems as models constraints 26 2.3.4 Combining different objectives in energy scenarios 27 2.4 Models for high shares of renewable energy 28 2.5 Models for North African electricity systems 31 2.6 Conclusions for model development 34 3 Electricity system of North Africa 36 3.1 Market structure 36 3.2 National targets for renewable energy 40 3.2.1 Morocco 40 3.2.2 Algeria 41 3.2.3 Tunisia 42 3.2.4 Libya 42 3.2.5 Egypt 43 3.3 Long-term development of electricity demand 44 3.4 Electricity exports to Europe 47 3.5 Geopolitical risks for the electricity system 51 4 Development of the electricity market model RESlion 53 4.1 Model requirements and modeling goals 53 4.2 Modeling of renewable energy technologies 56 4.2.1 Onshore wind power plants and wind resources 59 4.2.2 PV power plants and solar resources 61 4.2.3 CSP plants and solar resources 63 4.2.4 Hydro power plants and energy storage systems 65 4.3 General model approach of RESlion 65 4.4 Model description of RESlion 69 4.4.1 Introduction to the model structure 69 4.4.2 Temporal coverage 70 4.4.3 Objective function 72 4.4.4 Technology independent model constraints 74 4.4.5 Regional electricity exchange: Transmission lines 76 4.4.6 Renewable energy technologies 78 4.4.7 Hydro and storage power plants 80 4.4.8 Uncertainty of input parameters and assumptions 81 4.5 Modeling of expansion planning 83 4.6 Modeling of detailed hourly generation dispatch 83 4.7 Extension options to a Mixed Integer Linear Programming model 84 4.8 Solver selection and implementation environment 85 5 Model-based analysis of future electricity scenarios for North Africa 86 5.1 Scenario assumptions 86 5.2 Scenario definition 89 5.3 Technical and economic input data 94 5.4 Model adjustment 99 5.4.1 Electricity generation in reference year 2010 99 5.4.2 Testing of results with detailed hourly generation dispatch 100 5.5 Electricity scenarios for North Africa by 2050 102 5.5.1 Development of the generation system 102 5.5.2 System and generation costs 106 5.5.3 Site selection of RES generation capacities 108 5.5.4 Regional transmission lines 114 5.5.5 Energy storage systems 118 5.5.6 Technology specific generation 119 5.5.7 CO2 emissions 126 5.6 Sensitivity analyses 126 5.6.1 Adaption of market conditions: Split of electricity markets 127 5.6.2 Technology focus 127 5.6.3 Adaption of cost trends for fossil fuels, transmission lines and storage systems 129 5.7 Technology specific findings for CSP, PV and wind power 131 5.7.1 Typical sites and locations for electricity generation from RES 131 5.7.2 Influence of wind speeds and solar irradiation 131 5.7.3 Interactions with conventional power plants 132 5.8 Electricity scenarios with export to Europe 133 5.9 Discussion of RESlion model and its results 139 6 Model development for socio-economic impact analysis 142 6.1 The idea of combining a cost-optimized electricity system with a socio-economic analysis 142 6.2 Literature review and terminology 145 6.3 Data acquisition and further studies 148 6.4 Model description of RETMD 151 6.4.1 Model objectives 151 6.4.2 Model structure and decision modeling 152 6.4.3 Model limitations and uncertainties 156 6.5 Data input of RETMD 157 6.5.1 Construction of reference power plants 157 6.5.2 Operation of reference power plants 159 6.5.3 Status quo of local manufacturing in recent RE projects 160 6.6 Sensitivity of RETMD on market size and know-how 161 6.7 Discussion of model achievements 163 7 Manufacturing and employment impact of optimized electricity scenarios 165 7.1 Demand scenarios for the RE markets from 2012 to 2030 165 7.2 Economic impact and employment creation 166 7.3 Technology specific development of local manufacturing 168 7.4 Country specific development of local manufacturing 172 7.5 Potentials of local manufacturing in each scenarios 174 7.6 Local economic impact 176 7.7 Local employment impact 177 7.8 Evaluation of scenario results 181 7.9 Electricity system analysis and RE manufacturing: Results and discussion of the combined analysis 183 8 Conclusions and outlook 186 8.1 Conclusion on model developments 186 8.2 Conclusion on renewable energy in North Africa 187 8.3 Outlook and further research 189 9 Bibliography 191 10 Appendix 21

재생 에너지 이용이 캄보디아 전력 공급 안보에 미치는 영향

학위논문 (석사) -- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공, 2021. 2. 구윤모.Due to the fast-rising energy demand in Cambodia in the last two decades, conventional electricity power plants have been deployed together with additional electricity imported. Among domestic resources, coal power plants and large hydro are dominant in the generation mix, while green energy sources are relatively low. Energy security and environmental emissions reduction have become higher priorities to ensure sustainable energy supply at affordable costs for continued economic growth and development in Cambodia. In addressing these issues, renewable energy plays a vital role in the long-term electricity supply security and sustainable development. This study applied the ARIMA (1,2,2) model for electricity demand forecasting, then applied the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model to estimate and analyze the renewable energy potential in Cambodia's electricity generation mix. It determines the best mix of electricity generation technologies based on availability of domestic renewable energy sources, renewable energy share target, and emissions reduction target. Six scenarios, excluding the baseline scenario, have been formulated: two scenarios focus on the availability of renewable energy potential; on the other hand, two scenarios consider only the specified shares of renewable energy in the generation mix in 2050, and the last two scenarios combine the availability of renewable potential and targeted shares of renewable energy in generation mix. Results from the LEAP model, such as capacity expansion, energy generation, costs, and emissions, were used to investigate the effects of their changes on Cambodias future electricity supply. The results showed that electricity demand in Cambodia would rise from 12.12 TWh in 2020 to 87.74 TWh in 2050. For domestic electricity generation, in optimal utilization of renewable energy with maximum net present value, renewable energy electricity generation would reach 6.16TWh (22.27%), 13.11TWh (25%), and 33.14TWh (40%) in 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. The remaining supply comes from mostly natural gas-based generation and electricity import from neighboring countries. Based on the most implemental scenario, the total installed capacity would be 25.05 GW in 2050. Large hydro will be the dominant source, followed by a tremendous solar photovoltaic and natural gas share. In the meantime, Cambodia would need 126.25 billion U.S. dollars (BUSD) until 2050 for such a development. Such an implementation would emit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the amount of just 118.85 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2e), and in this case, Cambodia could meet its 2030 INDC reduction target. However, to successfully achieve both renewable energy targets and emission reduction targets, the Royal Government of Cambodia (RGC) will play an essential role in various actions. Such interventions could be seen from raising awareness to the public, establishing legal framework and policy measures, and looking for support from both local and international investors in renewable energy technology.지난 20년 동안 캄보디아의 에너지 수요 급증으로 인해 재래식 전기 발전소에 더해 추가 수입 전기와 함께 배치되었다. 국내 자원 중 석탄 발전소와 대형 수력 발전소가 우세하는 반면 녹색 에너지원은 상대적으로 낮다. 캄보디아의 지속적인 경제 성장과 발전을 위해 저렴한 비용으로 에너지 공급을 보장할 수 있도록 에너지 안보와 환경 배출 감소가 더 높은 우선순위가 되었다. 이러한 문제를 해결함에 있어, 재생 가능 에너지는 지속 가능한 개발과 전기 공급 안보를 위한 장기적인 미래에서 중요한 역할을 한다. 본 연구는 전력 수요 예측에 ARIMA (1,2,2) 모델을 적용한 다음 저배출 분석 플랫폼 (LEAP) 모델을 적용하여 캄보디아의 에너지 혼합에서 재생 가능 에너지 잠재력을 추정하고 분석한다. 국내 재생 가능 자원의 가용성, 재생 가능 에너지 공유 목표 및 배출 감소 목표를 기반으로 재생 가능 자원의 최적 혼합을 결정한다. 기본 시나리오를 제외한 6 개의 시나리오가 만들어진다. 두 가지 시나리오는 재생 가능 에너지 기술 잠재력의 가용성에 중점을 둔다. 다른 두 시나리오는 2050 년의 발전 혼합에서 재생 가능 에너지의 지정된 공유만을 고려하고, 마지막 두 시나리오는 재생 가능 잠재력의 가용성과 발전 혼합에서 재생 가능 에너지의 목표 공유를 결합한다. 용량 확장, 에너지 발전, 비용 및 배출과 같은 LEAP 모델의 결과는 캄보디아의 미래 전력 공급에 대한 변화의 영향을 조사하는 데에 사용된다. 그 결과, 캄보디아의 전력 수요는 2020년 12.12 TWh에서 2050년 87.74 TWh로 증가할 것으로 나타났다. 국내 전력 발전의 경우, 최대 순현재가치를 가진 재생 가능 에너지의 최적 활용에서 재생 가능 에너지 발전은 2030년 6.16 TWh (22.27%), 2040년 13.11 TWh (25%), 2050년 33.14 TWh (40%)에 이를 것으로 예상된다. 나머지 공급은 대부분 천연가스 기반 발전 및 주변 국가로부터의 수입에서 나온다. 가장 시행한 시나리오에 따르면 2050 년 총 설치 용량은 25.05 GW가 될 것이다. 대형 수력 발전소가 우세한 자원이 될 것이고, 그 뒤를 엄청난 태양광발전과 천연 가스가 차지할 것이다. 그러한 발전을 위해 캄보디아는 2050 년까지 1,260 억 달러가 필요하다. 위와 같은 시행은 CO2 등가물 (Mt CO2e)의 1억1885만 메트릭톤의 양으로 온실 가스 배출을 방출하 것이다. 이 경우, 캄보디아는 2030 INDC 배출 감소 목표를 달성 할 수 있다. 재생 가능 에너지 목표와 배출 감소 목표를 모두 성공적으로 달성하기 위해 다양한 조치에서 캄보디아 정부의 역할이 필수적이다. 그러한 개입은 대중의 인식을 높이고, 법적 프레임워크 및 정책 조치를 수립하며, 재생 가능 에너지 기술에 대한 국내외 투자자들의 지원을 구하는 것에서 볼 수 있다.Contents vi List of Tables ix List of Figures x Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Thesis Structure 4 Chapter 2. Research Background 6 2.1 Overview of Cambodias Energy Sector 6 2.1.1 Electricity Generation and Consumption in Cambodia 6 2.1.2 Renewable Energy Potential and Development 7 2.1.3 Cambodias Renewable Energy Target vs. ASEANs 12 2.2 Cambodias Energy Security 13 2.3 Cambodia's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution 15 Chapter 3. Literature Review 19 3.1 Renewable Energy and Energy Security 19 3.2 Energy Demand Forecasting 22 3.3 Energy Modeling Software 25 3.3.1 MARKAL 25 3.3.2 TIMES 25 3.3.3 MESSAGE 26 3.3.4 REMIX—OPTIMO 28 3.3.5 WEM 30 3.3.6 LEAP 30 3.4 Energy Security Indicator (ESI) 33 Chapter 4. Methodology 37 4.1 Flow Chart of Methodology 37 4.1.1 ARIMA Model 40 4.1.2 Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) Model 47 4.1.3 Energy Security Indicator (ESI) Selection 53 4.2 Data Inputs and Key Assumptions 56 4.3 Scenario Development 58 4.3.1 Full Renewable Potential (FRE) 61 4.3.2 Selected Renewable Potential (SRE) 61 4.3.3 Half Renewable Potential (HRE) 62 Chapter 5. Result Comparison and Energy Security Indicator (ESI) 63 5.1 Results 63 5.1.1 Full Renewable Potential (FRE) 63 5.1.2 Selected Renewable Potential (SRE) 71 5.1.3 Half Renewable Potential (HRE) 80 5.2 Comparison 84 5.2.1 Capacity Expansion 84 5.2.2 Electricity Generation 86 5.2.3 Cost of Production 88 5.2.4 Investment Cost 89 5.2.5 Emissions 90 5.3 Energy Security Indicator (ESI) Result 94 Chapter 6. Conclusion 104 6.1 Overall Conclusion 104 6.2 Policy Implication and Recommendation 112 6.3 Limitation and Future Work 115 Bibliography 117 Appendix 1: Mitigation Actions in Key Sectors in Cambodias INDC 2030 128 Appendix 2: Energy Models in Relevant Literatures 129 Appendix 3: Sources for Energy Security Indicator Selection and Formulation 131 Appendix 4: Total Energy Demand, Domestic Generation and Electricity Import 132 Appendix 5: Annual Capacity Expansion 133 Appendix 6: Annual Energy Generation 141 Appendix 7: Cumulative Cost of Production Composition (Billion U.S. Dollars) 149 Appendix 8: Cumulative Emissions by Fuel Type (Mt CO2e) 150 Abstract (Korean) 151Maste