On the binormal predictive receiver operating characteristic curve for the joint assessment of positive and negative predictive values

The predictive receiver operating characteristic (PROC) curve is a diagrammatic format with application in the statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts. The PROC curve differs from the more well-known receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve in that it provides a basis for evaluation using metrics defined conditionally on the outcome of the forecast rather than metrics defined conditionally on the actual disease status. Starting from the binormal ROC curve formulation, an overview of some previously published binormal PROC curves is presented in order to place the PROC curve in the context of other methods used in statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts based on the analysis of predictive values; in particular, the index of separation (PSEP) and the leaf plot. An information theoretic perspective on evaluation is also outlined. Five straightforward recommendations are made with a view to aiding understanding and interpretation of the sometimes-complex patterns generated by PROC curve analysis. The PROC curve and related analyses augment the perspective provided by traditional ROC curve analysis. Here, the binormal ROC model provides the exemplar for investigation of the PROC curve, but potential application extends to analysis based on other distributional models as well as to empirical analysis

Judging China: The Chinese Legal System in U.S. Courts

How should American courts understand China’s legal system? How do they understand it, and are they doing a good job? These questions have become important as economic and social ties between China and the United States have mushroomed since China’s days of Maoist isolation. The answers have implications not just for China-related cases, but for way U.S. courts treat authoritarian and illiberal legal systems more generally.This Article presents the first attempt to answer these questions empirically through an intensive study of all cases in which parties either sought dismissal to China on forum non conveniens grounds or sought enforcement of a Chinese judgment. Both types of cases require courts to assess China’s legal system. Because it attempts both to collect all relevant cases and to read all the relevant underlying party filings and interlocutory as well as final judgments, this Article presents the most complete picture to date of what U.S. courts and litigation parties are actually doing—certainly in China-related cases, and likely to some degree in other transnational cases.The Article finds that by and large courts do not get good information and often reach questionable conclusions. It finds that the adversarial system is not functioning well, with the strength of party arguments bearing no correlation to outcomes. Moreover, the bad results tend to get baked into the system through their citation in subsequent cases. This has serious implications for the delivery of justice. The Article concludes by offering some paths to a solution.A shorter version of this Article is forthcoming in the University of Pennsylvania Journal of International Law

Brake Squeal reduction through improved rotor damping

Brake Squeal Noise is a significant concern in the automotive industry and incurs enormous costs during brake system development and in brake system warranty. Several methods are utilized to minimize brake squeal, including frequency manipulation of individual brake system components through design and material modifications, active damping elements like pad shims and insulators, which typically add mass and cost to the brake system, as well as retesting costs. Brake rotors are made of grey cast iron due to their low cost, good machinability, wear and damping properties. Strength requirements limit the material damping obtainable on a consistent basis. Other methods to improve rotor damping include the use of steel inserts in the rotor plates and EDM machining of the brake rotors. Parts made with either process have been observed to reach very high levels of damping (Q factor of ~ 200) and entirely eliminate noise occurrences in the brake system.This research involves the characterization of the material and the additional processes required to achieve highly damped rotors, with a Q factor in the range of 100 to 300, which can provide significant brake noise reduction. It was discovered that electrical or magnetic processing of the rotors can create damping improvements in the range of 10 to 50 %, which are beneficial to reducing noise occurrences. EDM processing was primarily used for the study and Q factor improvements in the range of 30 to 50 % observed. Rotors with High C.E., Large Type A graphite with flake size 2 to 4, showed the largest benefits from the processing. Process DOE showed no effects of current on the damping improvements. A low processing time of 5 seconds on Non FNC rotors generated over 30 % damping improvements consistently. Noise occurrence reductions of 80 to 100 % were seen with the processed rotors. No detrimental effects were noted on other rotor performance characteristics including thermal cracking, brake torque variation, wear, and corrosion. Effects of time, temperature and wear on the damping improvements have been researched, and no significant losses were seen in typical operating conditions

Choice of Forum in International Aviation Litigation

By its nature, international air transport exposes carriers and their customers to risks that arise from crossing jurisdictional borders. For these reasons, treaties, such as the Montreal Convention 1999 (MC99), lay down provisions on jurisdiction aimed at securing uniformity while assuring an equitable balance of interests between stakeholders. However, these provisions have caused controversy and fuelled wasteful litigation over the matter of choice of forum in passenger claims. In this context, the common law doctrine of forum non conveniens (FNC) has been employed by defendants to defeat claimant passenger’s choice of forum. This thesis critically examines whether FNC is consistent with MC99 and/or its policies. In so doing, the broader question of how to regulate choice of forum in international aviation litigation is analysed. It is argued that MC99, as the successor to the Warsaw Convention 1929, is predicated on an anachronistic understanding of itself as a discrete system grounded on the two-party paradigm of claimant passenger versus defendant carrier. It is demonstrated that this does not correspond to the reality of modern international aviation litigation where third-parties play a critical role. Claimant passengers now have access to alternative remedies and with it, additional choices as to forum. In turn, the liability relationships between carriers and third parties (such as aircraft manufacturers) have evolved and bound them together, often in opposition to the claimant passenger. Behind the carrier and third parties stands the aviation insurer, calling the shots and pulling the strings. MC99 is merely a component of a bigger aviation accident passenger compensation system, the interdependency of which means that evaluating choice of forum under MC99 requires understanding this system’s organization and operation. This thesis puts forward a proposal for reform which takes account of this bigger picture and will regulate choice of forum more equitably and efficiently

Game Theory in Political Science and Public Policy: The Case of the Establishment of the United Arab Emirates

The objective of this article is quasi-experimental. By using the logic of game theory to explain the establishment of the state of the United Arab Emirates, the article intends to test the ability of game theory to explain a pre-played game. Although formal game theory is not susceptible to experimentation, game to political science and public policy is like experiments to psychology. Hence this paper attempts to use the already played game of the establishment of the state of the United Arab Emirates as an experiment to answer the question: is the outcome of this game conforms with game theory modeling. Thus, the article models that game as the Extended Battle of Sexes game and use both the normal and extensive forms to address that question

Cases and Text on Property 6th Ed.

Cases and Text on Property, Sixth Edition, preserves the character of its esteemed predecessors with: Introductory chapters that unveil the important historical perspective that infuses the book as the authors put contemporary property law in historical context; classic cases and absorbing text that match the high standard of quality established by the late Casner and Leach; problems that are seamlessly integrated with cases and notes; a broad scope of coverage that ranges from interests protected as property, to title transfers, landlord and tenant law, housing discrimination, and land-use regulation.https://digitalcommons.nyls.edu/fac_books/1039/thumbnail.jp

The Black Hole Window on Cosmic Inflation

We develop in this thesis the principles governing the production of our universe's primordial inhomogeneities during its early phase of inflation. As a guiding thread we ask what physics during inflation can lead to perturbations so large that they form black holes in sufficient abundance to be the dark matter. We start with the simplest single-field slow-roll paradigm for inflation, which cannot produce primordial black hole dark matter, and then gradually relieve its assumptions. After developing the effective field theory of inflation, we highlight the importance of the single-clock condition in controlling the inhomogeneities. Going beyond single-clock inflation takes us first to a qualitatively different inflationary scenario known as ultra-slow roll and finally to understanding the physics of the Higgs field during inflation.Comment: PhD thesis, University of Chicago. Novel introductory material accompanying abridgments of previously published wor

Why Arab-Muslim Women in War Matters: A Case Study Analysis of Women in the United Arab Emirates' Armed Forces

Knowledge about women’s participation in combat roles, yet alone in national armed forces in the Arab countries is very limited. Although more women are acquiring access to combat roles worldwide, most scholarly investigations have focused on servicewomen in the West. As the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is emerging as a rampant participant in international relations and it contributes forces to global security agendas, the objective of this thesis is to describe the inclusion of women in the United Arab Emirates’ Armed Forces. The study uses the case example of Major Mariam Al Mansouri who is the United Arab Emirates’ first female air force fighter pilot and whom dropped bombs for the intergovernmental Anti-ISIL Coalition in July/August 2014. The case study was used to describe aspects of the issues that surround the participation of females in the military of a Muslim country. Furthermore, the case study was chosen because when the participation of Major Al Mansouri was made public, it received a very gender-based coverage by the media and scholars particularly from the West. The research uses an interpretivist analysis of scholarly work and media reports from the Gulf region and the United States. This methodology was chosen due to limited public data on the Emirates’ Armed Forces. Furthermore, in a globalized world with the ease of disseminating information quickly and widely, media reports may bias international public and state perceptions of Arab countries based on how women are described by such sources of information. Neo-Orientalism was used as the theoretical framework to provide an additional perspective to the analysis. The analysis showed that the inclusion of women in the United Arab Emirates’ Armed Forces has been enabled by a top-down approach, as the state is very involved in the process. It also indicated Emirati women are joining the military for nationalistic and religious reasons. In summary, this thesis describes the inclusion of women in the United Arab Emirates' Armed Forces and it reveals how these women may play an increasingly significant role nationally and internationally. However, the participation is greeted with skepticism likely due to a perceptional bias by some Western media of the propensities towards women in Arab-Muslim countries

The role of lenders´ geographical diversification in P2P transactinos

In this dissertation,I provide novel evidenceof the impact of geographical diversification on loan interest rates. The findings, based on a unique dataset of all P2P transactions in a UK platformover the period 2010-2013, suggest that more geographically-diversified lenders are more likely to impose lower interest rates in their contract terms in P2P transactions, while more concentrated lenders (in terms of geographical concentration of the activities) practice higher loan interests rate. These results are robust to an alternative econometric approach