14,692 research outputs found

    Application of linear moments and uncertainty analysis to extreme rainfall events in Sabah

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    Linear moments (LM) has been applied in extreme rainfall study for several countries, including China, United States of America, and Peninsular Malaysia. In this study, the LM procedures were applied to extreme rainfall data corresponding to locations provided in Malaysia Urban Stromwater Manual (MSMA) to derive new design rainfalls. Different record lengths were considered to assess the changes in design rainfall, and Monte Carlo simulations were carried out to compute confidence interval of the derived design rainfalls. Based on the Goodness-of-Fit (GoF) test results, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) probability distribution was chosen to derive the design rainfalls. The updated design rainfalls at all four locations showed significant reduction at design rainfalls of 50-year ARI and above. The difference of the design rainfalls from shorter record lengths with respect to the full record length and the confidence intervals do not necessarily reduce with a longer record. In hypothetical cases where 100-yr ARI rainfall was added, the increase in design rainfalls did not exceed the upper bound of the confidence intervals. The derived confidence intervals hence allow for better risk assessment, and should be considered in the design of critical structures, i.e. dams

    A Comparative Study of the Magnitude, Frequency and Distribution of Intense Rainfall in the United Kingdom

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    During the 1960s, a study was made of the magnitude, frequency and distribution of intense rainfall over the UK, employing data from more than 120 daily-read rain gauges covering the period 1911 to 1960. Using the same methodology, that study was recently updated utilizing data for the period 1961 to 2006 for the same gauges, or from those nearby. This paper describes the techniques applied to ensure consistency of data and statistical modelling. It presents a comparison of patterns of extreme rainfalls for the two periods and discusses the changes that have taken place. Most noticeably, increases up to 20% have occurred in the north west of the country and in parts of East Anglia. There have also been changes in other areas, including decreases of the same magnitude over central England. The implications of these changes are considered

    Review of methods for deriving areal reduction factors

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    The design of hydraulic structures requires knowledge of how much rain is likely to fall within a certain amount of time, and over a specific area. Point rainfalls are only representative for a very limited area, and for larger areas the areal average rainfall depth is likely to be much smaller than at the point of maximum observed depth. The estimation of areal reduction factors is concerned with the relationship between the point and areal rainfalls. This relationship has been found to vary with, for example, predominant weather type, season and return period. Methods for estimation of areal reduction factors include empirical and analytical methods. The current design guidelines in the United Kingdom are based on an empirical method, but since they were issued in 1975, several new analytical methods have been proposed. These methods are discussed, and recommendations for an update suitable for United Kingdom conditions are made

    The climatic character of the Auckland rural area

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    The characteristics of the climate of the rural area surrounding the Auckland urban area are discussed. Data used, is predominantly from published reports of the New Zealand Meteorological Service giving annual summaries of observations made at the various climatological, synoptic and rainfall recording stations. The mean characteristics of the area's climatic elements are considered together with their extremes. It is concluded that warm temperatures throughout the year, high humidity, variations in amount and. intensity of rainfall, prevailing westerly and infrequent easterly winds and high sunshine hours characterise the climate of this part of northern New Zealand

    Critical rainfall conditions for the initiation of torrential flows: results from the Rebaixader catchment (Central Pyrenees)

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    Torrential flows like debris flows or debris floods are fast movements formed by a mix of water and different amounts of unsorted solid material. They generally occur in steep torrents and pose high risk in mountainous areas. Rainfall is their most common triggering factor and the analysis of the critical rainfall conditions is a fundamental research task. Due to their wide use in warning systems, rainfall thresholds for the triggering of torrential flows are an important outcome of such analysis and are empirically derived using data from past events. In 2009, a monitoring system was installed in the Rebaixader catchment, Central Pyrenees (Spain). Since then, rainfall data of 25 torrential flows (“TRIG rainfalls”) were recorded, with a 5-min sampling frequency. Other 142 rainfalls that did not trigger torrential flows (“NonTRIG rainfalls”) were also collected and analyzed. The goal of this work was threefold: (i) characterize rainfall episodes in the Rebaixader catchment and compare rainfall data that triggered torrential flows and others that did not; (ii) define and test Intensity–Duration (ID) thresholds using rainfall data measured inside the catchment by with different techniques; (iii) analyze how the criterion used for defining the rainfall duration and the spatial variability of rainfall influences the value obtained for the thresholds. The statistical analysis of the rainfall characteristics showed that the parameters that discriminate better the TRIG and NonTRIG rainfalls are the rainfall intensities, the mean rainfall and the total rainfall amount. The antecedent rainfall was not significantly different between TRIG and NonTRIG rainfalls, as it can be expected when the source material is very pervious (a sandy glacial soil in the study site). Thresholds were derived from data collected at one rain gauge located inside the catchment. Two different methods were applied to calculate the duration and intensity of rainfall: (i) using total duration, Dtot, and mean intensity, Imean, of the rainfall event, and (ii) using floating durations, D, and intensities, Ifl, based on the maximum values over floating periods of different duration. The resulting thresholds are considerably different (Imean = 6.20 Dtot-0.36 and Ifl_90% = 5.49 D-0.75, respectively) showing a strong dependence on the applied methodology. On the other hand, the definition of the thresholds is affected by several types of uncertainties. Data from both rain gauges and weather radar were used to analyze the uncertainty associated with the spatial variability of the triggering rainfalls. The analysis indicates that the precipitation recorded by the nearby rain gauges can introduce major uncertainties, especially for convective summer storms. Thus, incorporating radar rainfall can significantly improve the accuracy of the measured triggering rainfall. Finally, thresholds were also derived according to three different criteria for the definition of the duration of the triggering rainfall: (i) the duration until the peak intensity, (ii) the duration until the end of the rainfall; and, (iii) the duration until the trigger of the torrential flow. An important contribution of this work is the assessment of the threshold relationships obtained using the third definition of duration. Moreover, important differences are observed in the obtained thresholds, showing that ID relationships are significantly dependent on the applied methodology.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

    An Extreme Value Approach to Modeling Risk of Extreme Rainfall in Bangladesh

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    The extreme value theory has been applied on daily rainfall in the five most exposed areas of Bangladesh between the years 1980-2016 in order to esti- mate extreme rainfalls for the next 10, 50 and 100 years. These types of computations are necessary for optimising planning and preparations for ex- treme future rainfalls which can lead to minimising property damage and ultimately saving lives. Generalised extreme value distribution is fitted to annual maxima accord- ing to the block maxima method. In addition, the generalised Pareto distri- bution is fitted to the daily rainfall according to the Peaks-Over-Threshold method. The different parameters were estimated with a 95 % confidence interval both through the delta- and the profile likelihood methods. There- after, the return period is computed according to each model using the same estimated confidence intervals

    Statistical analysis of the equivalent design rainfall

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    Statistical analyses of rainfall data are used for the design of sewerage systems and pump-stations, for the evaluation of the duration and the frequency of overflow in runoff detention facilities, for the determination of the critical influence on a municipal wastewater-treatment plant or for the protection of watercourses from storm-water runoff (e.g., from highways). The basic data in this calculation are the intensity and the duration of a rainstorm. Different procedures used in the analysis of Equivalent Design Rainfall (EDR) in Slovenia and abroad are described. The stochastic model used is presented in more detail because of its applicability for the determination of the probability of the occurrence of partial rainfalls of higher frequencies and the determination of the lower limit of rainfall evaluation. Computation procedures and the results of the evaluation of rainfall data according to the stochastic model are presented for Ljubljana

    The predictability of precipitation episodes during the West African dry season

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    Precipitation episodes in tropical West Africa (7-15°N, 10°W-10°E) during the dry season from November to March are rare, but can have significant impacts on human activities reaching from greening of pastures to spoiling harvests and health implications. Previous work has shown a link between these unseasonal rainfalls and extratropical disturbances via a decrease of surface pressure over the Sahara/Sahel and a subsequent inflow of moist air from the Gulf of Guinea. This paper supports the previously stated hypothesis that the extratropical influence leads to a high rainfall predictability through a careful analysis of operational 5 day forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system (EPS), which are evaluated using Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation estimates for the 11 dry seasons 1998/99-2008/09. The long-term regional average of ensemble-mean precipitation lies between the two observational datasets, with GPCP being considerably wetter. Temporal correlations between the ensemble mean and observations are 0.8. Standard probabilistic evaluation methods such as reliability and relative operating characteristic (ROC) diagrams indicate remarkably good reliability, sharpness and skill across a range of precipitation thresholds. However, a categorical verification focusing on the most extreme ensemble mean values indicates too many false alarms. Despite the considerable observational uncertainty the results show that the ECMWF EPS is capable of predicting winter rainfall events in tropical West Africa with good accuracy, at least on regional spatial and synoptic time-scales, which should encourage West African weather services to capitalize more on the valuable information provided by ensemble prediction systems during the dry season
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