Discriminative Distance-Based Network Indices with Application to Link Prediction

In large networks, using the length of shortest paths as the distance measure has shortcomings. A well-studied shortcoming is that extending it to disconnected graphs and directed graphs is controversial. The second shortcoming is that a huge number of vertices may have exactly the same score. The third shortcoming is that in many applications, the distance between two vertices not only depends on the length of shortest paths, but also on the number of shortest paths. In this paper, first we develop a new distance measure between vertices of a graph that yields discriminative distance-based centrality indices. This measure is proportional to the length of shortest paths and inversely proportional to the number of shortest paths. We present algorithms for exact computation of the proposed discriminative indices. Second, we develop randomized algorithms that precisely estimate average discriminative path length and average discriminative eccentricity and show that they give $(\epsilon,\delta)$-approximations of these indices. Third, we perform extensive experiments over several real-world networks from different domains. In our experiments, we first show that compared to the traditional indices, discriminative indices have usually much more discriminability. Then, we show that our randomized algorithms can very precisely estimate average discriminative path length and average discriminative eccentricity, using only few samples. Then, we show that real-world networks have usually a tiny average discriminative path length, bounded by a constant (e.g., 2). Fourth, in order to better motivate the usefulness of our proposed distance measure, we present a novel link prediction method, that uses discriminative distance to decide which vertices are more likely to form a link in future, and show its superior performance compared to the well-known existing measures

Predicting epidemic risk from past temporal contact data

Understanding how epidemics spread in a system is a crucial step to prevent and control outbreaks, with broad implications on the system's functioning, health, and associated costs. This can be achieved by identifying the elements at higher risk of infection and implementing targeted surveillance and control measures. One important ingredient to consider is the pattern of disease-transmission contacts among the elements, however lack of data or delays in providing updated records may hinder its use, especially for time-varying patterns. Here we explore to what extent it is possible to use past temporal data of a system's pattern of contacts to predict the risk of infection of its elements during an emerging outbreak, in absence of updated data. We focus on two real-world temporal systems; a livestock displacements trade network among animal holdings, and a network of sexual encounters in high-end prostitution. We define the node's loyalty as a local measure of its tendency to maintain contacts with the same elements over time, and uncover important non-trivial correlations with the node's epidemic risk. We show that a risk assessment analysis incorporating this knowledge and based on past structural and temporal pattern properties provides accurate predictions for both systems. Its generalizability is tested by introducing a theoretical model for generating synthetic temporal networks. High accuracy of our predictions is recovered across different settings, while the amount of possible predictions is system-specific. The proposed method can provide crucial information for the setup of targeted intervention strategies.Comment: 24 pages, 5 figures + SI (18 pages, 15 figures

Node Embedding over Temporal Graphs

In this work, we present a method for node embedding in temporal graphs. We propose an algorithm that learns the evolution of a temporal graph's nodes and edges over time and incorporates this dynamics in a temporal node embedding framework for different graph prediction tasks. We present a joint loss function that creates a temporal embedding of a node by learning to combine its historical temporal embeddings, such that it optimizes per given task (e.g., link prediction). The algorithm is initialized using static node embeddings, which are then aligned over the representations of a node at different time points, and eventually adapted for the given task in a joint optimization. We evaluate the effectiveness of our approach over a variety of temporal graphs for the two fundamental tasks of temporal link prediction and multi-label node classification, comparing to competitive baselines and algorithmic alternatives. Our algorithm shows performance improvements across many of the datasets and baselines and is found particularly effective for graphs that are less cohesive, with a lower clustering coefficient