Prediction of survival probabilities with Bayesian Decision Trees

Practitioners use Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) models for predicting the survival probability of an injured patient. The accuracy of TRISS predictions is acceptable for patients with up to three typical injuries, but unacceptable for patients with a larger number of injuries or with atypical injuries. Based on a regression model, the TRISS methodology does not provide the predictive density required for accurate assessment of risk. Moreover, the regression model is difficult to interpret. We therefore consider Bayesian inference for estimating the predictive distribution of survival. The inference is based on decision tree models which recursively split data along explanatory variables, and so practitioners can understand these models. We propose the Bayesian method for estimating the predictive density and show that it outperforms the TRISS method in terms of both goodness-of-fit and classification accuracy. The developed method has been made available for evaluation purposes as a stand-alone application

Online Tool Condition Monitoring Based on Parsimonious Ensemble+

Accurate diagnosis of tool wear in metal turning process remains an open challenge for both scientists and industrial practitioners because of inhomogeneities in workpiece material, nonstationary machining settings to suit production requirements, and nonlinear relations between measured variables and tool wear. Common methodologies for tool condition monitoring still rely on batch approaches which cannot cope with a fast sampling rate of metal cutting process. Furthermore they require a retraining process to be completed from scratch when dealing with a new set of machining parameters. This paper presents an online tool condition monitoring approach based on Parsimonious Ensemble+, pENsemble+. The unique feature of pENsemble+ lies in its highly flexible principle where both ensemble structure and base-classifier structure can automatically grow and shrink on the fly based on the characteristics of data streams. Moreover, the online feature selection scenario is integrated to actively sample relevant input attributes. The paper presents advancement of a newly developed ensemble learning algorithm, pENsemble+, where online active learning scenario is incorporated to reduce operator labelling effort. The ensemble merging scenario is proposed which allows reduction of ensemble complexity while retaining its diversity. Experimental studies utilising real-world manufacturing data streams and comparisons with well known algorithms were carried out. Furthermore, the efficacy of pENsemble was examined using benchmark concept drift data streams. It has been found that pENsemble+ incurs low structural complexity and results in a significant reduction of operator labelling effort.Comment: this paper has been published by IEEE Transactions on Cybernetic