The spatio-temporal dynamics of neutral genetic diversity

International audienceThe notions of pulled and pushed solutions of reaction-dispersal equations introduced by Garnier et al. (2012) and Roques et al. (2012) are based on a decomposition of the solutions into several components. In the framework of population dynamics, this decomposition is related to the spatio-temporal evolution of the genetic structure of a population. The pulled solutions describe a rapid erosion of neutral genetic diversity, while the pushed solutions are associated with a maintenance of diversity. This paper is a survey of the most recent applications of these notions to several standard models of population dynamics, including reaction-diffusion equations and systems and integro-differential equations. We describe several counterintuitive results, where unfavorable factors for the persistence and spreading of a population tend to promote diversity in this population. In particular, we show that the Allee effect, the existence of a competitor species, as well as the presence of climate constraints are factors which can promote diversity during a colonization. We also show that long distance dispersal events lead to a higher diversity, whereas the existence of a nonreproductive juvenile stage does not affect the neutral diversity in a range-expanding population

Fractional derivative models for the spread of diseases

This thesis considers the mathematical modelling of disease, using fractional differential equations in order to provide a tool for the description of memory effects. In Chapter 3 we illustrate a commensurate fractional order tumor model, and we find a critical value of the fractional derivative dependent on the parameter values of the model. For fractional derivatives of orders less than the critical value an unstable equilibrium point of the system becomes stable. In order to show changes in the observed areas of attraction of two stable points in the system, we then consider a fractional order SIR epidemic model and investigate the change from a monostable to a bistable system.;Chapter 4 considers a model for virus dynamics where the fractional orders for populations are different, called an incommensurate system. An approximate analytical solution for the characteristic equation of the incommensurate model is found when the different fractional orders are similar and close to the critical value of the fractional order of the commensurate system. In addition, the instability boundary is found as a function of both parameters. A comparison between analytical and numerical results shows the high accuracy of this approximation.;Chapter 5 consists of two parts, in the first part we generalise the integer Fisher's equation to be a space-time fractional differential equation and consider travelling wave solutions. In the second part we generalise an integer SIR model with spatial heterogeneity, which was studied by Murray [117], to a space-time fractional derivative model. We apply the (G0/G)-expansion method and find travelling wave solutions, although in this case we must consider the Jumarie's modified Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative. Finally, we consider the effect of changing the orders of time and space fractional derivatives on the location and speed of the travelling wave solution.This thesis considers the mathematical modelling of disease, using fractional differential equations in order to provide a tool for the description of memory effects. In Chapter 3 we illustrate a commensurate fractional order tumor model, and we find a critical value of the fractional derivative dependent on the parameter values of the model. For fractional derivatives of orders less than the critical value an unstable equilibrium point of the system becomes stable. In order to show changes in the observed areas of attraction of two stable points in the system, we then consider a fractional order SIR epidemic model and investigate the change from a monostable to a bistable system.;Chapter 4 considers a model for virus dynamics where the fractional orders for populations are different, called an incommensurate system. An approximate analytical solution for the characteristic equation of the incommensurate model is found when the different fractional orders are similar and close to the critical value of the fractional order of the commensurate system. In addition, the instability boundary is found as a function of both parameters. A comparison between analytical and numerical results shows the high accuracy of this approximation.;Chapter 5 consists of two parts, in the first part we generalise the integer Fisher's equation to be a space-time fractional differential equation and consider travelling wave solutions. In the second part we generalise an integer SIR model with spatial heterogeneity, which was studied by Murray [117], to a space-time fractional derivative model. We apply the (G0/G)-expansion method and find travelling wave solutions, although in this case we must consider the Jumarie's modified Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative. Finally, we consider the effect of changing the orders of time and space fractional derivatives on the location and speed of the travelling wave solution

Forced waves and their asymptotic behaviors in a Lotka-Volterra competition model with spatio-temporal nonlocal effect under climate change

In this paper, we propose a modified Lotka-Volterra competition model under climate change, which incorporates both spatial and temporal nonlocal effect. First, the theoretical analyses for forced waves of the model are performed, and the existence of the forced waves is proved by using the cross-iteration scheme combining with appropriate upper and lower solutions. Second, the asymptotic behaviors of the forced waves are derived by using the linearization and limiting method, and we find that the asymptotic behaviors of forced waves are mainly determined by the leading equations. In addition, some typical numerical examples are provided to illustrate the analytical results. By choosing three kinds of different kernel functions, it is found that the forced waves can be both monotonic and non-monotonic

Evolution dynamics of some population models in heterogeneous environments

Spatial and/or temporal evolutions are very important topics in epidemiology and ecology. This thesis is devoted to the study of the global dynamics of some population models incorporating with environmental heterogeneities. Vector-borne diseases such as West Nile virus and malaria, pose a threat to public health worldwide. Both vector life cycle and parasite development are highly sensitive to climate factors. To understand the role of seasonality on disease spread, we start with a periodic West Nile virus transmission model with time-varying incubation periods. Apart from seasonal variations, another important feature of our environment is the spatial heterogeneity. Hence, we incorporate the movement of both vectors and hosts, temperature-dependent incubation periods, seasonal fluctuations and spatial heterogeneity into a general reaction-diffusion vector-borne disease model. By using the theory of basic reproduction number, R₀, and the theory of infinite dimensional dynamical systems, we derive R₀ and establish a threshold-type result for the global dynamics in terms of R₀ for each model. As biological invasions have significant impacts on ecology and human society, how the growth and spatial spread of invasive species interact with environment becomes an important and challenging problem. We first propose an impulsive integro-differential model to describe a single invading species with a birth pulse in the reproductive stage and a nonlocal dispersal stage. Next, we study the propagation dynamics for a class of integro-difference two-species competition models in a spatially periodic habitat

Front propagation in the non-local Fisher-KPP equation

Tkachov P. Front propagation in the non-local Fisher-KPP equation. Bielefeld: Universität Bielefeld; 2017

Study of Malaria Transmission Dynamics by Mathematical Models

This Ph.D thesis focuses on modeling transmission and dispersal of one of the most common infectious disease, Malaria. Firstly, an integro-differential equation system is derived, based on the classical Ross-Macdonald model, toemphasize the impacts of latencies on disease dynamics. The novelty lies in the fact that different distributionfunctions are used to describe the variance of individual latencies. The theoretical results of this projectindicate that latencies reduce the basic reproduction number. Secondly, a patch model is derived to examine how travels of human beings affects the transmission and spread of Malaria. Due to coexistence of latency and dispersal, the model turns out to be a system of delay differential equations on patches with non-local infections. The results from this work indicate that although malaria has been eradicated in many countries since the 1980s, re-emergence of the disease is possible, and henceprecautionary measures should be taken accordingly. Thirdly, since there are more than five species of Malaria Plasmodium causing human malaria, and they are currently distributed in different geographic regions, co-invasion by multiple species of malaria may arise. We propose multi-species models to explore co-infection at within-host level and co-existence at the between-host level. The analysis shows that competition exclusion dominates at the within-host level, meaning that longterm co-infection of a single host by multiple species can be generically excluded. However, at thebetween-host level, long term co-existence of multiple species in a region is possible

Agent-based and continuous models of hopper bands for the Australian plague locust: How resource consumption mediates pulse formation and geometry

Locusts are significant agricultural pests. Under favorable environmental conditions flightless juveniles may aggregate into coherent, aligned swarms referred to as hopper bands. These bands are often observed as a propagating wave having a dense front with rapidly decreasing density in the wake. A tantalizing and common observation is that these fronts slow and steepen in the presence of green vegetation. This suggests the collective motion of the band is mediated by resource consumption. Our goal is to model and quantify this effect. We focus on the Australian plague locust, for which excellent field and experimental data is available. Exploiting the alignment of locusts in hopper bands, we concentrate solely on the density variation perpendicular to the front. We develop two models in tandem; an agent-based model that tracks the position of individuals and a partial differential equation model that describes locust density. In both these models, locust are either stationary (and feeding) or moving. Resources decrease with feeding. The rate at which locusts transition between moving and stationary (and vice versa) is enhanced (diminished) by resource abundance. This effect proves essential to the formation, shape, and speed of locust hopper bands in our models. From the biological literature we estimate ranges for the ten input parameters of our models. Sobol sensitivity analysis yields insight into how the band's collective characteristics vary with changes in the input parameters. By examining 4.4 million parameter combinations, we identify biologically consistent parameters that reproduce field observations. We thus demonstrate that resource-dependent behavior can explain the density distribution observed in locust hopper bands. This work suggests that feeding behaviors should be an intrinsic part of future modeling efforts.Comment: 26 pages, 11 figures, 3 tables, 3 appendices with 1 figure; revised Introduction, Sec 1.1, and Discussion; cosmetic changes to figures; fixed typos and made clarifications throughout; results unchange