Is Connectivity a Desirable Property in Urban Resilience Assessments?

Acknowledgements Marta Olazabal acknowledges funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 653522 (RESIN—Climate Resilient Cities and Infrastructures project). Marta Olazabal holds a fellowship by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) (grant no. FPDI-2013-16631). The authors also acknowledge support from the National Institute for Environmental Studies. Marta Olazabal acknowledges funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 653522 (RESIN—Climate Resilient Cities and Infrastructures project). Marta Olazabal holds a fellowship by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) (grant no. FPDI-2013-16631). The authors also acknowledge support from the National Institute for Environmental Studies

The Complex Pathway towards Farm-Level Sustainable Intensification: An Exploratory Network Analysis of Stakeholders’ Knowledge and Perception

peer-reviewedFarm-level sustainable intensification of agriculture (SIA) has become an important concept to ensuring food security while minimising negative externalities. However, progress towards its achievement is often constrained by the different perceptions and goals of various stakeholders that affect farm management decisions. This study examines farm-level SIA as a dynamic system with interactive components that are determined by the interests of the stakeholders involved. A systems thinking approach was used to identify and describe the pathways towards farm-level SIA across the three main pillars of sustainability. An explanatory network analysis of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) that were collectively created by representative groups of farmers, farm advisors and policy makers was performed. The study shows that SIA is a complex dynamic system, affected by cognitive beliefs and particular knowledge within stakeholder groups. The study concludes that, although farm-level SIA is a complex process, common goals can be identified in collective decision making

Кибербезопасность в образовательных сетях

The paper discusses the possible impact of digital space on a human, as well as human-related directions in cyber-security analysis in the education: levels of cyber-security, social engineering role in cyber-security of education, “cognitive vaccination”. “A Human” is considered in general meaning, mainly as a learner. The analysis is provided on the basis of experience of hybrid war in Ukraine that have demonstrated the change of the target of military operations from military personnel and critical infrastructure to a human in general. Young people are the vulnerable group that can be the main goal of cognitive operations in long-term perspective, and they are the weakest link of the System.У статті обговорюється можливий вплив цифрового простору на людину, а також пов'язані з людиною напрямки кібербезпеки в освіті: рівні кібербезпеки, роль соціального інжинірингу в кібербезпеці освіти, «когнітивна вакцинація». «Людина» розглядається в загальному значенні, головним чином як та, що навчається. Аналіз надається на основі досвіду гібридної війни в Україні, яка продемонструвала зміну цілей військових операцій з військовослужбовців та критичної інфраструктури на людину загалом. Молодь - це вразлива група, яка може бути основною метою таких операцій в довгостроковій перспективі, і вони є найслабшою ланкою системи.В документе обсуждается возможное влияние цифрового пространства на человека, а также связанные с ним направления в анализе кибербезопасности в образовании: уровни кибербезопасности, роль социальной инженерии в кибербезопасности образования, «когнитивная вакцинация». «Человек» рассматривается в общем смысле, в основном как ученик. Анализ представлен на основе опыта гибридной войны в Украине, которая продемонстрировала изменение цели военных действий с военного персонала и критической инфраструктуры на человека в целом. Молодые люди являются уязвимой группой, которая может быть главной целью когнитивных операций в долгосрочной перспективе, и они являются самым слабым звеном Систем

Exploring the interactions among factors impeding the diffusion of prefabricated building technologies: Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify the interactions of factors impacting the widespread adoption of prefabricated building technologies and the intervention strategies to facilitate the development of prefabrication based on fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs). Design/methodology/approach – Through in-depth interviews with six stakeholder groups, namely, the government, developers, designers, contractors, manufacturers and researchers, 13 critical factors were identified and used to construct stakeholder-grouped FCMs, which were further aggregated into a collective FCM. The complexity and density of the collective FCM and the centrality of factors in the FCM were examined. Subsequently, a series of “what-if” simulations of the collective FCM were conducted to analyze the effectiveness of different interventions in promoting prefabrication. Findings – The results show that three factors including market demand, cost, and policies and regulations have been mentioned by all stakeholder groups. However, these factors were ranked differently by stakeholder groups, implying that different stakeholder groups perceive the barriers to prefabricated building technologies differently. FCM simulations show that strengthening policies and regulations yield the strongest overall effect stimulating prefabrication, alleviating the organizational and environmental barriers more than the technological barriers, while improving the knowledge and expertise alleviate the technological barriers more. These measures need to be accompanied by other approaches, such as reducing cost and improving quality. Research limitations/implications – It is a tough task to promote prefabrication as it is affected by numerous barriers with complex interactions, which have been overlooked by previous studies. This study clearly shows which strategy could tackle which barriers to prefabrication through the FCM simulations. This provides valuable references for the enterprises’ decision making and the governments’ policy making to facilitate the diffusion of prefabricated building technologies. Originality/value – Few studies aim to analyze the interactions among the barriers to prefabrication, while this study specifically investigates this issue by illustrating the complex interactions using FCMs. Few studies also aim to identify the intervention strategies promoting prefabrication based on a quantitative approach, while this study employs FCM simulations to directly simulate the effectiveness of different strategies to facilitate prefabrication in a quantitative manner.Xiao-Long Gan, Rui-Dong Chang, Craig Langston, Tao We

COVID-19 and Digital Transformation -- Developing an Open Experimental Testbed for Sustainable and Innovative Environments (ETSIE) using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

This paper sketches a new approach using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) to operably map and simulate digital transformation in architecture and urban planning. Today these processes are poorly understood. Many current studies on digital transformation are only treating questions of economic efficiency. Sustainability and social impact only play a minor role. Decisive definitions, concepts and terms stay unclear. Therefore this paper develops an open experimental testbed for sustainable and innovative environments (ETSIE) for three different digital transformation scenarios using FCMs. A traditional growth-oriented scenario, a COVID-19 scenario and an innovative and sustainable COVID-19 scenario are modeled and tested. All three scenarios have the same number of components, connections and the same driver components. Only the initial state vectors are different and the internal correlations are weighted differently. This allows for comparing all three scenarios on an equal basis. The mental modeler software is used (Gray et al. 2013). This paper presents one of the first applications of FCMs in the context of digital transformation. It is shown, that the traditional growth-oriented scenario is structurally very similar to the current COVID-19 scenario. The current pandemic is able to accelerate digital transformation to a certain extent. But the pandemic does not guarantee for a distinct sustainable and innovative future development. Only by changing the initial state vectors and the weights of the connections an innovative and sustainable turnaround in a third scenario becomes possible.Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures and 17 tables; keywords: soft computing; fuzzy cognitive maps; digital transformation; COVID-19; decision making; sustainability; integrated world system modelin

A constructivist model of bank branch front-office employee evaluation: an FCM-SD-based approach

The banking sector is one of the primary drivers of economic development. This sector has been affected by various crises throughout its history – most recently, the 2008 financial and economic crisis. In response, banking institutions have had to make diverse changes to their procedures and deal with new concerns related to changes within markets. One of the main recent developments in this sector is the new commercial function assigned to bank branch front-office employees, who have become responsible for selling financial products and services, as well as recruiting and retaining clients. As a result, the sector needs new employee performance evaluation methods in line with banks and staff members’ requirements. This study combined fuzzy cognitive mapping techniques and the system dynamics (SD) approach to develop a well-informed performance analysis system for assessing bank branch front-office employees. The proposed system was validated by the Business Process Management Competence Center director at Millennium BCP – a Portuguese private banking corporation. The main difference between the model constructed in the present research and current evaluation practices is that the criteria were collected directly from multiple specialists working at different commercial banks, who deal daily with this decision problem. The model’s theoretical and practical implications are also discussed.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Applying a social-ecological systems approach to human-bear encounters across the Pacific Rim: advancing resilient human-wildlife management strategies

Thesis (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2014.Wildlife management is challenged with addressing human resource needs while simultaneously conserving wildlife populations. Conflicts between humans and wildlife have increased across Northern countries with the expansion of human communities and environmental changes. Lack of information exists about reasons for such occurrences. This study explores adaptive capacity and resilience in coupled human-wildlife systems through the analysis of social and ecological factors contributing to perceptions of negative and positive human-bear (Ursus spp.) encounters. I first developed a theory to evaluate human perceptions and behaviors during human-wildlife encounters. Secondly I adopted an interdisciplinary framework to analyze human-bear encounters in urbanizing regions of south Sakhalin Island, Russian Far-East, and southcentral Alaska, USA. These case studies facilitate an analysis of perception development across spatial and social scales while incorporating approaches of both social and ecological sciences. Hunting, tourism and overall anthropogenic impacts are central to bear management, whereas cultural and social interests are perceived to not be considered in bear management decision-making across study regions. In Alaska, political interests are prevalent in bear management, whereas on Sakhalin, economic interests, including illegal animal trade and poaching prevail. Across study regions the perception of an encounter with a bear was dependent on the socio-economic situation of the individual having the encounter. The higher a person's socio-economic status was, the higher was their probability to perceive bear encounters as positive. Further, spatial and social scales across which perceptions vary are identified. Scales include urban-non-urban areas, wildland-urban interfaces, and a recreation-subsistence interest divide. Outside of urban areas, people's interests in recreation versus subsistence affect their perceptions toward bear encounters. Subsistence collectors of fish, game or plants are more likely to have negative encounters. Within urban areas, increased experience with encountering bears and length of residency are associated with positive encounters, whereas closeness to residences while not in sheltered environments increases negative encounters. These findings constitute spatial and social barriers and benefits to individualistic perception formation during human-bear encounters. Their identification advances resilience in researched human-wildlife systems and helps us to understand the adaptive capacities within these communities. The successful spatially-explicit integration of social and ecological variables promotes the opportunities for integrating human dimensions in wildlife management.General Acknowledgements -- Chapter 2: Integrating complexity in the management of human-wildlife encounters -- Chapter 3: Understanding local peoples' perceptions toward bear management in Northern urbanizing regions -- Chapter 4: Spatial explicit perception mapping: socio-economic circumstances to impact perceptions and spatial pattern of human-bear encounters across scale -- Chapter 5: The impact of spatially explicit ecological and social variables on the development of perceptions during bear encounters in southcentral Alaska -- Chapter 6: General conclusions and future recommendations -- Appendices