Human Development Dynamics: an Agent Based Simulation of Macro Social Systems and Individual Heterogeneous Evolutionary Games

This is the final version of the article. Available from Springer via the DOI in this record.Purpose In the context of modernization and development, a complex adaptive systems framework can help address the coupling of macro social constraint and opportunity with individual agency. Combining system dynamics and agent based modeling, we formalize a simulation approach of the Human Development (HD) perspective to explore the interactive effects of economics, culture, society and politics across multiple human scales. Methods Based on a system of asymmetric, coupled nonlinear equations, we first capture the core qualitative logic of HD theory, empirically validated from World Values Survey (WVS) data. Using a simple evolutionary game approach, second we fuse endogenously derived individual socio-economic attribute changes with Prisoner’s Dilemma in an agent based model of the interactive political-cultural effects of heterogeneous, spatial intra-societal economic transactions. We then explore a new human development dynamics (HDD) model behavior via quasi-global simulation methods to identify paths and pitfalls towards economic development, cultural plasticity, social and political change behavior. Results Our preliminary results suggest strong nonlinear path dependence and complexity in three areas: adaptive development processes, co-evolutionary societal transactions and near equilibrium development trajectories, with significant implications for anticipating and managing positive development outcomes. Strong local epistatic interactions characterized by adaptive co-evolution, shape higher order global conditions and ultimately societal outcomes. Conclusions Techno-social simulations such as this can provide scholars and policymakers alike insights into the nonlinear, complex adaptive effects of societal co-evolution. We believe complex adaptive or evolutionary systems approaches are necessary to understand both near and potentially catastrophic, far-from-equilibrium behavior and societal outcomes across all human scales of modernization

Trust and Development : The Deep Structure of Institutions-Building and Socio-Economic Performance

This thesis tries to establish first a comprehensive and realistic theoretical system in which trust changes, and then explores different interesting issues using different methods like comparison analysis, econometric analysis and agent-based modeling. The theoretical system restored in this thesis integrates a series of realistic factors in socio-economic environment besides trust, like information, social learning, network, institutions, geographical mobility and so on, and covers gradually increasing levels from individual thoughts and behavior, to interactions, to networks, and to multi-networks. The underlying logic of linking those realistic factors is: Trust, especially its change, is subject to the perception of trustworthiness. Information reflecting trustworthiness plays a decisive role in trust changing. Not conforming to institutions is an important embodiment of untrustworthiness, and is therefore a significant factor causing distrust. Moreover, trustworthiness per se is an institution. Information process and social learning process overlap to a substantial degree. Ways of acquiring information coincide with that of social learning. Through social learning, behavior can directly be acquired (such as, trustworthy behavior), which makes social learning play an important role in nurturing institution-conforming behavior. What is more, social learning can also change thoughts (such as, change cognition to social environments), and then guides conscious behavior (such as, to trust according to trustworthiness). Information functions through personal psychology eventually. Social networks are where information is acquired, social learning is going on, behavior is output and information is diffused subsequently. Geographical mobility changes individual local interaction network. This thesis contains six sections in total: an introduction and 5 chapters. Chapter 1 is the theoretical part of this thesis. It integrates the factors of trust, information, social learning, network, institutions, geographical mobility, etc. guided by the logic stated above, and basically unfolds along the line of individuals, interactions, networks and multi-networks. It can be viewed as composed of three big plates: first, basics of trust; second, trust and trustworthiness per se; third, other factors mentioned above (namely, information, social learning, network, institutions, geographical mobility) constituting the realistic system where trust changes. Besides, several effects of (dis)trust on economic transactions are discussed in detail. Chapter 2 compares or contrasts or presents several socio-economic aspects of China and three Scandinavian countries - Denmark, Norway and Sweden. The selected socio-economic aspects for comparison or presentation include population, network structures, welfare, equality, geographical mobility, social capital, trust, public security, performance of labor market, and economic growth. Not only the possible logic between these aspects and trust (except trust per se) is explained; rich corresponding data of each aspect of Denmark, Norway, Sweden and China is also presented for a relatively comprehensive understanding of the four countries. Chapter 3 quantitatively, empirically explores the impact of others' norm-conforming behavior, others' opinion and geographical mobility on individual general trust using micro data from Chinese General Social Survey 2013 and the provincial data from the Sixth National Population Census of P.R. China. The empirical research proves evidence for the significant impact of others' norm-conforming behavior, similarity degree of opinion with others and individual geographical mobility on general trust. Chapter 4 explores the evolution of interaction and cooperation, supported by individuals' changing, information-driven trust and trustworthiness respectively, on a directed weighted regular ring using agent-based modeling. Under the experimental design and parameter values selection in this chapter, basically as degree of embeddedness in social network, proportion of high trust agents and probability of information diffusion in neighbors increase and as mutation probability of payoff matrix, conflict of mutated payoff matrix and probability of information diffusion in non-neighbors decrease, simulation performs better. Chapter 5 summarizes and concludes