1,975 research outputs found

    Analysing behavioural factors that impact financial stock returns. The case of COVID-19 pandemic in the financial markets.

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    This thesis represents a pivotal advancement in the realm of behavioural finance, seamlessly integrating both classical and state-of-the-art models. It navigates the performance and applicability of the Irrational Fractional Brownian Motion (IFBM) model, while also delving into the propagation of investor sentiment, emphasizing the indispensable role of hands-on experiences in understanding, applying, and refining complex financial models. Financial markets, characterized by ’fat tails’ in price change distributions, often challenge traditional models such as the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM). Addressing this, the research pivots towards the Irrational Fractional Brownian Motion Model (IFBM), a groundbreaking model initially proposed by (Dhesi and Ausloos, 2016) and further enriched in (Dhesi et al., 2019). This model, tailored to encapsulate the ’fat tail’ behaviour in asset returns, serves as the linchpin for the first chapter of this thesis. Under the insightful guidance of Gurjeet Dhesi, a co-author of the IFBM model, we delved into its intricacies and practical applications. The first chapter aspires to evaluate the IFBM’s performance in real-world scenarios, enhancing its methodological robustness. To achieve this, a tailored algorithm was crafted for its rigorous testing, alongside the application of a modified Chi-square test for stability assessment. Furthermore, the deployment of Shannon’s entropy, from an information theory perspective, offers a nuanced understanding of the model. The S&P500 data is wielded as an empirical testing bed, reflecting real-world financial market dynamics. Upon confirming the model’s robustness, the IFBM is then applied to FTSE data during the tumultuous COVID-19 phase. This period, marked by extraordinary market oscillations, serves as an ideal backdrop to assess the IFBM’s capability in tracking extreme market shifts. Transitioning to the second chapter, the focus shifts to the potentially influential realm of investor sentiment, seen as one of the many factors contributing to fat tails’ presence in return distributions. Building on insights from (Baker and Wurgler, 2007), we examine the potential impact of political speeches and daily briefings from 10 Downing Street during the COVID-19 crisis on market sentiment. Recognizing the profound market impact of such communications, the chapter seeks correlations between these briefings and market fluctuations. Employing advanced Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, this chapter harnesses the power of the Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) algorithm (Devlin et al., 2018) to extract sentiment from governmental communications. By comparing the derived sentiment scores with stock market indices’ performance metrics, potential relationships between public communications and market trajectories are unveiled. This approach represents a melding of traditional finance theory with state-of-the-art machine learning techniques, offering a fresh lens through which the dynamics of market behaviour can be understood in the context of external communications. In conclusion, this thesis provides an intricate examination of the IFBM model’s performance and the influence of investor sentiment, especially under crisis conditions. This exploration not only advances the discourse in behavioural finance but also underscores the pivotal role of sophisticated models in understanding and predicting market trajectories

    Proceedings of the 10th International congress on architectural technology (ICAT 2024): architectural technology transformation.

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    The profession of architectural technology is influential in the transformation of the built environment regionally, nationally, and internationally. The congress provides a platform for industry, educators, researchers, and the next generation of built environment students and professionals to showcase where their influence is transforming the built environment through novel ideas, businesses, leadership, innovation, digital transformation, research and development, and sustainable forward-thinking technological and construction assembly design

    Effects of municipal smoke-free ordinances on secondhand smoke exposure in the Republic of Korea

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    ObjectiveTo reduce premature deaths due to secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure among non-smokers, the Republic of Korea (ROK) adopted changes to the National Health Promotion Act, which allowed local governments to enact municipal ordinances to strengthen their authority to designate smoke-free areas and levy penalty fines. In this study, we examined national trends in SHS exposure after the introduction of these municipal ordinances at the city level in 2010.MethodsWe used interrupted time series analysis to assess whether the trends of SHS exposure in the workplace and at home, and the primary cigarette smoking rate changed following the policy adjustment in the national legislation in ROK. Population-standardized data for selected variables were retrieved from a nationally representative survey dataset and used to study the policy action’s effectiveness.ResultsFollowing the change in the legislation, SHS exposure in the workplace reversed course from an increasing (18% per year) trend prior to the introduction of these smoke-free ordinances to a decreasing (−10% per year) trend after adoption and enforcement of these laws (β2 = 0.18, p-value = 0.07; β3 = −0.10, p-value = 0.02). SHS exposure at home (β2 = 0.10, p-value = 0.09; β3 = −0.03, p-value = 0.14) and the primary cigarette smoking rate (β2 = 0.03, p-value = 0.10; β3 = 0.008, p-value = 0.15) showed no significant changes in the sampled period. Although analyses stratified by sex showed that the allowance of municipal ordinances resulted in reduced SHS exposure in the workplace for both males and females, they did not affect the primary cigarette smoking rate as much, especially among females.ConclusionStrengthening the role of local governments by giving them the authority to enact and enforce penalties on SHS exposure violation helped ROK to reduce SHS exposure in the workplace. However, smoking behaviors and related activities seemed to shift to less restrictive areas such as on the streets and in apartment hallways, negating some of the effects due to these ordinances. Future studies should investigate how smoke-free policies beyond public places can further reduce the SHS exposure in ROK

    2023-2024 Catalog

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    The 2023-2024 Governors State University Undergraduate and Graduate Catalog is a comprehensive listing of current information regarding:Degree RequirementsCourse OfferingsUndergraduate and Graduate Rules and Regulation

    Investigating the learning potential of the Second Quantum Revolution: development of an approach for secondary school students

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    In recent years we have witnessed important changes: the Second Quantum Revolution is in the spotlight of many countries, and it is creating a new generation of technologies. To unlock the potential of the Second Quantum Revolution, several countries have launched strategic plans and research programs that finance and set the pace of research and development of these new technologies (like the Quantum Flagship, the National Quantum Initiative Act and so on). The increasing pace of technological changes is also challenging science education and institutional systems, requiring them to help to prepare new generations of experts. This work is placed within physics education research and contributes to the challenge by developing an approach and a course about the Second Quantum Revolution. The aims are to promote quantum literacy and, in particular, to value from a cultural and educational perspective the Second Revolution. The dissertation is articulated in two parts. In the first, we unpack the Second Quantum Revolution from a cultural perspective and shed light on the main revolutionary aspects that are elevated to the rank of principles implemented in the design of a course for secondary school students, prospective and in-service teachers. The design process and the educational reconstruction of the activities are presented as well as the results of a pilot study conducted to investigate the impact of the approach on students' understanding and to gather feedback to refine and improve the instructional materials. The second part consists of the exploration of the Second Quantum Revolution as a context to introduce some basic concepts of quantum physics. We present the results of an implementation with secondary school students to investigate if and to what extent external representations could play any role to promote students’ understanding and acceptance of quantum physics as a personal reliable description of the world

    Understanding Agreement and Disagreement in Listeners’ Perceived Emotion in Live Music Performance

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    Emotion perception of music is subjective and time dependent. Most computational music emotion recognition (MER) systems overlook time- and listener-dependent factors by averaging emotion judgments across listeners. In this work, we investigate the influence of music, setting (live vs lab vs online), and individual factors on music emotion perception over time. In an initial study, we explore changes in perceived music emotions among audience members during live classical music performances. Fifteen audience members used a mobile application to annotate time-varying emotion judgments based on the valence-arousal model. Inter-rater reliability analyses indicate that consistency in emotion judgments varies significantly across rehearsal segments, with systematic disagreements in certain segments. In a follow-up study, we examine listeners' reasons for their ratings in segments with high and low agreement. We relate these reasons to acoustic features and individual differences. Twenty-one listeners annotated perceived emotions while watching a recorded video of the live performance. They then reflected on their judgments and provided explanations retrospectively. Disagreements were attributed to listeners attending to different musical features or being uncertain about the expressed emotions. Emotion judgments were significantly associated with personality traits, gender, cultural background, and music preference. Thematic analysis of explanations revealed cognitive processes underlying music emotion perception, highlighting attributes less frequently discussed in MER studies, such as instrumentation, arrangement, musical structure, and multimodal factors related to performer expression. Exploratory models incorporating these semantic features and individual factors were developed to predict perceived music emotion over time. Regression analyses confirmed the significance of listener-informed semantic features as independent variables, with individual factors acting as moderators between loudness, pitch range, and arousal. In our final study, we analyzed the effects of individual differences on music emotion perception among 128 participants with diverse backgrounds. Participants annotated perceived emotions for 51 piano performances of different compositions from the Western canon, spanning various era. Linear mixed effects models revealed significant variations in valence and arousal ratings, as well as the frequency of emotion ratings, with regard to several individual factors: music sophistication, music preferences, personality traits, and mood states. Additionally, participants' ratings of arousal, valence, and emotional agreement were significantly associated to the historical time periods of the examined clips. This research highlights the complexity of music emotion perception, revealing it to be a dynamic, individual and context-dependent process. It paves the way for the development of more individually nuanced, time-based models in music psychology, opening up new avenues for personalised music emotion recognition and recommendation, music emotion-driven generation and therapeutic applications

    Comparing the production of a formula with the development of L2 competence

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    This pilot study investigates the production of a formula with the development of L2 competence over proficiency levels of a spoken learner corpus. The results show that the formula in beginner production data is likely being recalled holistically from learners’ phonological memory rather than generated online, identifiable by virtue of its fluent production in absence of any other surface structure evidence of the formula’s syntactic properties. As learners’ L2 competence increases, the formula becomes sensitive to modifications which show structural conformity at each proficiency level. The transparency between the formula’s modification and learners’ corresponding L2 surface structure realisations suggest that it is the independent development of L2 competence which integrates the formula into compositional language, and ultimately drives the SLA process forward

    Audio-visual multi-modality driven hybrid feature learning model for crowd analysis and classification

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    The high pace emergence in advanced software systems, low-cost hardware and decentralized cloud computing technologies have broadened the horizon for vision-based surveillance, monitoring and control. However, complex and inferior feature learning over visual artefacts or video streams, especially under extreme conditions confine majority of the at-hand vision-based crowd analysis and classification systems. Retrieving event-sensitive or crowd-type sensitive spatio-temporal features for the different crowd types under extreme conditions is a highly complex task. Consequently, it results in lower accuracy and hence low reliability that confines existing methods for real-time crowd analysis. Despite numerous efforts in vision-based approaches, the lack of acoustic cues often creates ambiguity in crowd classification. On the other hand, the strategic amalgamation of audio-visual features can enable accurate and reliable crowd analysis and classification. Considering it as motivation, in this research a novel audio-visual multi-modality driven hybrid feature learning model is developed for crowd analysis and classification. In this work, a hybrid feature extraction model was applied to extract deep spatio-temporal features by using Gray-Level Co-occurrence Metrics (GLCM) and AlexNet transferrable learning model. Once extracting the different GLCM features and AlexNet deep features, horizontal concatenation was done to fuse the different feature sets. Similarly, for acoustic feature extraction, the audio samples (from the input video) were processed for static (fixed size) sampling, pre-emphasis, block framing and Hann windowing, followed by acoustic feature extraction like GTCC, GTCC-Delta, GTCC-Delta-Delta, MFCC, Spectral Entropy, Spectral Flux, Spectral Slope and Harmonics to Noise Ratio (HNR). Finally, the extracted audio-visual features were fused to yield a composite multi-modal feature set, which is processed for classification using the random forest ensemble classifier. The multi-class classification yields a crowd-classification accurac12529y of (98.26%), precision (98.89%), sensitivity (94.82%), specificity (95.57%), and F-Measure of 98.84%. The robustness of the proposed multi-modality-based crowd analysis model confirms its suitability towards real-world crowd detection and classification tasks

    An American Knightmare: Joker, Fandom, and Malicious Movie Meaning-Making

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    This monograph concerns the long-standing communication problem of how individuals can identify and resist the influence of unethical public speakers. Scholarship on the issue of what Socrates & Plato called the “Evil Lover” – i.e., the ill-intended rhetor – began with the Greek philosophers, but has carried into [post]Modern anxieties. For instance, the study of Nazi propaganda machines, and the rhetoric of Hitler himself, rejuvenated interest in the study of speech and communication in the U.S. and Europe. Whereas unscrupulous sophists used lectures and legal forums, and Hitler used a microphone, contemporary Evil Lovers primarily draw on new, internet-related tools to share their malicious influence. These new tools of influence are both more far-reaching and more subtle than the traditional practices of listening to a designated speaker appearing at an overtly political event. Rhetorician Ashley Hinck has recently noted the ways that popular culture – communication about texts which are commonly accessible and shared – are now significant sites through which citizens learn moral and political values. Accordingly, the talk of internet influencers who interpret popular texts for other fans has the potential to constitute strong persuasive power regarding ethics and civic responsibility. The present work identifies and responds to a particular case example of popular culture text that has been recently, and frequently, leveraged in moral and civic discourses: Todd Phillips’ Joker. Specifically, this study takes a hermeneutic approach to understanding responses, especially those explicitly invoking political ideology, to Joker as a method of examining civic meaning-making. A special emphasis is placed on the online film criticisms of Joker from white nationalist movie fans, who clearly exemplify ways that media responses can be leveraged by unethical speakers (i.e., Evil Lovers) and subtly diffused. The study conveys that these racist movie fans can embed values related to “trolling,” incelism, and xenophobia into otherwise seemingly innocuous talk about film. While the sharing of such speech does not immediately mean its positive reception, this kind of communication yet constitutes a new and understudied attack on democratic values such as justice and equity. The case of white nationalist movie fan film criticism therefore reflects a particular brand of communicative strategy for contemporary Evil Lovers in communicating unethical messages under the covert guise of mundane movie talk

    The Politics of Platformization: Amsterdam Dialogues on Platform Theory

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    What is platformization and why is it a relevant category in the contemporary political landscape? How is it related to cybernetics and the history of computation? This book tries to answer such questions by engaging in multidisciplinary dialogues about the first ten years of the emerging fields of platform studies and platform theory. It deploys a narrative and playful approach that makes use of anecdotes, personal histories, etymologies, and futurable speculations to investigate both the fragmented genealogy that led to platformization and the organizational and economic trends that guide nowadays platform sociotechnical imaginaries
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