UQ and AI: data fusion, inverse identification, and multiscale uncertainty propagation in aerospace components

A key requirement for engineering designs is that they offer good performance across a range of uncertain conditions while exhibiting an admissibly low probability of failure. In order to design components that offer good performance across a range of uncertain conditions, it is necessary to take account of the effect of the uncertainties associated with a candidate design. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods are statistical methods that may be used to quantify the effect of the uncertainties inherent in a system on its performance. This thesis expands the envelope of UQ methods for the design of aerospace components, supporting the integration of UQ methods in product development by addressing four industrial challenges. Firstly, a method for propagating uncertainty through computational models in a hierachy of scales is described that is based on probabilistic equivalence and Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos (NIPC). This problem is relevant to the design of aerospace components as the computational models used to evaluate candidate designs are typically multiscale. This method was then extended to develop a formulation for inverse identification, where the probability distributions for the material properties of a coupon are deduced from measurements of its response. We demonstrate how probabilistic equivalence and the Maximum Entropy Principle (MEP) may be used to leverage data from simulations with scarce experimental data- with the intention of making this stage of product design less expensive and time consuming. The third contribution of this thesis is to develop two novel meta-modelling strategies to promote the wider exploration of the design space during the conceptual design phase. Design Space Exploration (DSE) in this phase is crucial as decisions made at the early, conceptual stages of an aircraft design can restrict the range of alternative designs available at later stages in the design process, despite limited quantitative knowledge of the interaction between requirements being available at this stage. A histogram interpolation algorithm is presented that allows the designer to interactively explore the design space with a model-free formulation, while a meta-model based on Knowledge Based Neural Networks (KBaNNs) is proposed in which the outputs of a high-level, inexpensive computer code are informed by the outputs of a neural network, in this way addressing the criticism of neural networks that they are purely data-driven and operate as black boxes. The final challenge addressed by this thesis is how to iteratively improve a meta-model by expanding the dataset used to train it. Given the reliance of UQ methods on meta-models this is an important challenge. This thesis proposes an adaptive learning algorithm for Support Vector Machine (SVM) metamodels, which are used to approximate an unknown function. In particular, we apply the adaptive learning algorithm to test cases in reliability analysis.Open Acces

USRA/RIACS

The Research Institute for Advanced Computer Science (RIACS) was established by the Universities Space Research Association (USRA) at the NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) on 6 June 1983. RIACS is privately operated by USRA, a consortium of universities with research programs in the aerospace sciences, under a cooperative agreement with NASA. The primary mission of RIACS is to provide research and expertise in computer science and scientific computing to support the scientific missions of NASA ARC. The research carried out at RIACS must change its emphasis from year to year in response to NASA ARC's changing needs and technological opportunities. A flexible scientific staff is provided through a university faculty visitor program, a post doctoral program, and a student visitor program. Not only does this provide appropriate expertise but it also introduces scientists outside of NASA to NASA problems. A small group of core RIACS staff provides continuity and interacts with an ARC technical monitor and scientific advisory group to determine the RIACS mission. RIACS activities are reviewed and monitored by a USRA advisory council and ARC technical monitor. Research at RIACS is currently being done in the following areas: Parallel Computing; Advanced Methods for Scientific Computing; Learning Systems; High Performance Networks and Technology; Graphics, Visualization, and Virtual Environments

Research and Education in Computational Science and Engineering

Over the past two decades the field of computational science and engineering (CSE) has penetrated both basic and applied research in academia, industry, and laboratories to advance discovery, optimize systems, support decision-makers, and educate the scientific and engineering workforce. Informed by centuries of theory and experiment, CSE performs computational experiments to answer questions that neither theory nor experiment alone is equipped to answer. CSE provides scientists and engineers of all persuasions with algorithmic inventions and software systems that transcend disciplines and scales. Carried on a wave of digital technology, CSE brings the power of parallelism to bear on troves of data. Mathematics-based advanced computing has become a prevalent means of discovery and innovation in essentially all areas of science, engineering, technology, and society; and the CSE community is at the core of this transformation. However, a combination of disruptive developments---including the architectural complexity of extreme-scale computing, the data revolution that engulfs the planet, and the specialization required to follow the applications to new frontiers---is redefining the scope and reach of the CSE endeavor. This report describes the rapid expansion of CSE and the challenges to sustaining its bold advances. The report also presents strategies and directions for CSE research and education for the next decade.Comment: Major revision, to appear in SIAM Revie

Quantum ESPRESSO: a modular and open-source software project for quantum simulations of materials

Quantum ESPRESSO is an integrated suite of computer codes for electronic-structure calculations and materials modeling, based on density-functional theory, plane waves, and pseudopotentials (norm-conserving, ultrasoft, and projector-augmented wave). Quantum ESPRESSO stands for "opEn Source Package for Research in Electronic Structure, Simulation, and Optimization". It is freely available to researchers around the world under the terms of the GNU General Public License. Quantum ESPRESSO builds upon newly-restructured electronic-structure codes that have been developed and tested by some of the original authors of novel electronic-structure algorithms and applied in the last twenty years by some of the leading materials modeling groups worldwide. Innovation and efficiency are still its main focus, with special attention paid to massively-parallel architectures, and a great effort being devoted to user friendliness. Quantum ESPRESSO is evolving towards a distribution of independent and inter-operable codes in the spirit of an open-source project, where researchers active in the field of electronic-structure calculations are encouraged to participate in the project by contributing their own codes or by implementing their own ideas into existing codes.Comment: 36 pages, 5 figures, resubmitted to J.Phys.: Condens. Matte

Feature Markov Decision Processes

General purpose intelligent learning agents cycle through (complex,non-MDP) sequences of observations, actions, and rewards. On the other hand, reinforcement learning is well-developed for small finite state Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). So far it is an art performed by human designers to extract the right state representation out of the bare observations, i.e. to reduce the agent setup to the MDP framework. Before we can think of mechanizing this search for suitable MDPs, we need a formal objective criterion. The main contribution of this article is to develop such a criterion. I also integrate the various parts into one learning algorithm. Extensions to more realistic dynamic Bayesian networks are developed in a companion article.Comment: 7 page