Analysis and Forecasting of Trending Topics in Online Media Streams

Among the vast information available on the web, social media streams capture what people currently pay attention to and how they feel about certain topics. Awareness of such trending topics plays a crucial role in multimedia systems such as trend aware recommendation and automatic vocabulary selection for video concept detection systems. Correctly utilizing trending topics requires a better understanding of their various characteristics in different social media streams. To this end, we present the first comprehensive study across three major online and social media streams, Twitter, Google, and Wikipedia, covering thousands of trending topics during an observation period of an entire year. Our results indicate that depending on one's requirements one does not necessarily have to turn to Twitter for information about current events and that some media streams strongly emphasize content of specific categories. As our second key contribution, we further present a novel approach for the challenging task of forecasting the life cycle of trending topics in the very moment they emerge. Our fully automated approach is based on a nearest neighbor forecasting technique exploiting our assumption that semantically similar topics exhibit similar behavior. We demonstrate on a large-scale dataset of Wikipedia page view statistics that forecasts by the proposed approach are about 9-48k views closer to the actual viewing statistics compared to baseline methods and achieve a mean average percentage error of 45-19% for time periods of up to 14 days.Comment: ACM Multimedia 201

Tracking the History and Evolution of Entities: Entity-centric Temporal Analysis of Large Social Media Archives

How did the popularity of the Greek Prime Minister evolve in 2015? How did the predominant sentiment about him vary during that period? Were there any controversial sub-periods? What other entities were related to him during these periods? To answer these questions, one needs to analyze archived documents and data about the query entities, such as old news articles or social media archives. In particular, user-generated content posted in social networks, like Twitter and Facebook, can be seen as a comprehensive documentation of our society, and thus meaningful analysis methods over such archived data are of immense value for sociologists, historians and other interested parties who want to study the history and evolution of entities and events. To this end, in this paper we propose an entity-centric approach to analyze social media archives and we define measures that allow studying how entities were reflected in social media in different time periods and under different aspects, like popularity, attitude, controversiality, and connectedness with other entities. A case study using a large Twitter archive of four years illustrates the insights that can be gained by such an entity-centric and multi-aspect analysis.Comment: This is a preprint of an article accepted for publication in the International Journal on Digital Libraries (2018

Popularity Evolution of Professional Users on Facebook

Popularity in social media is an important objective for professional users (e.g. companies, celebrities, and public figures, etc). A simple yet prominent metric utilized to measure the popularity of a user is the number of fans or followers she succeed to attract to her page. Popularity is influenced by several factors which identifying them is an interesting research topic. This paper aims to understand this phenomenon in social media by exploring the popularity evolution for professional users in Facebook. To this end, we implemented a crawler and monitor the popularity evolution trend of 8k most popular professional users on Facebook over a period of 14 months. The collected dataset includes around 20 million popularity values and 43 million posts. We characterized different popularity evolution patterns by clustering the users temporal number of fans and study them from various perspectives including their categories and level of activities. Our observations show that being active and famous correlate positively with the popularity trend