Technological capability building through networking strategies within high-tech industries

technological, networking, strategies, high-tech industries

Evolutionary Tournament-Based Comparison of Learning and Non-Learning Algorithms for Iterated Games

Evolutionary tournaments have been used effectively as a tool for comparing game-playing algorithms. For instance, in the late 1970's, Axelrod organized tournaments to compare algorithms for playing the iterated prisoner's dilemma (PD) game. These tournaments capture the dynamics in a population of agents that periodically adopt relatively successful algorithms in the environment. While these tournaments have provided us with a better understanding of the relative merits of algorithms for iterated PD, our understanding is less clear about algorithms for playing iterated versions of arbitrary single-stage games in an environment of heterogeneous agents. While the Nash equilibrium solution concept has been used to recommend using Nash equilibrium strategies for rational players playing general-sum games, learning algorithms like fictitious play may be preferred for playing against sub-rational players. In this paper, we study the relative performance of learning and non-learning algorithms in an evolutionary tournament where agents periodically adopt relatively successful algorithms in the population. The tournament is played over a testbed composed of all possible structurally distinct 2×2 conflicted games with ordinal payoffs: a baseline, neutral testbed for comparing algorithms. Before analyzing results from the evolutionary tournament, we discuss the testbed, our choice of representative learning and non-learning algorithms and relative rankings of these algorithms in a round-robin competition. The results from the tournament highlight the advantage of learning algorithms over players using static equilibrium strategies for repeated plays of arbitrary single-stage games. The results are likely to be of more benefit compared to work on static analysis of equilibrium strategies for choosing decision procedures for open, adapting agent society consisting of a variety of competitors.Repeated Games, Evolution, Simulation

Conformity Hinders the Evolution of Cooperation on Scale-Free Networks

We study the effects of conformity, the tendency of humans to imitate locally common behaviors, in the evolution of cooperation when individuals occupy the vertices of a graph and engage in the one-shot Prisoner's Dilemma or the Snowdrift game with their neighbors. Two different graphs are studied: rings (one-dimensional lattices with cyclic boundary conditions) and scale-free networks of the Barabasi-Albert type. The proposed evolutionary-graph model is studied both by means of Monte Carlo simulations and an extended pair-approximation technique. We find improved levels of cooperation when evolution is carried on rings and individuals imitate according to both the traditional pay-off bias and a conformist bias. More important, we show that scale-free networks are no longer powerful amplifiers of cooperation when fair amounts of conformity are introduced in the imitation rules of the players. Such weakening of the cooperation-promoting abilities of scale-free networks is the result of a less biased flow of information in scale-free topologies, making hubs more susceptible of being influenced by less-connected neighbors.Comment: 14 pages, 11 figure

Toward a Theory of Marginally Efficient Markets

Empirical evidence suggests that even the most competitive markets are not strictly efficient. Price histories can be used to predict near future returns with a probability better than random chance. Many markets can be considered as {\it favorable games}, in the sense that there is a small probabilistic edge that smart speculators can exploit. We propose to identify this probability using conditional entropy concept. A perfect random walk has this entropy maximized, and departure from the maximal value represents a price history's predictability. We propose that market participants should be divided into two categories: producers and speculators. The former provides the negative entropy into the price, upon which the latter feed. We show that the residual negative entropy can never be arbitraged away: infinite arbitrage capital is needed to make the price a perfect random walk.Comment: 9 pages, 3 ps figure

The Philippines

The Philippines is no stranger to geopolitics. It stood near the frontier of ideological struggles as the Cold War raged in the Asia-Pacific. Not only did American bases in the Philippines figure in the Korea and Vietnam conflicts, but the Philippine Expeditionary Force to Korea (PEFTOK) also fought on behalf of the United States against North Korean and Chinese forces. In the post-Cold War era, however, the Philippines finds itself in a changed world. In 1991, the United States left Clark Air Force Base and Subic Naval Base as the communist threat to the region receded. Few probably suspected then that the Philippines would have to reckon with another rising, ostensibly communist power, in a few years’ time

Evaluation of two mobile health apps in the context of smoking cessation: qualitative study of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) versus non-CBT-based digital solutions.

BACKGROUND: Mobile health (mHealth) apps can offer users numerous benefits, representing a feasible and acceptable means of administering health interventions such as cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). CBT is commonly used in the treatment of mental health conditions, where it has a strong evidence base, suggesting that it represents an effective method to elicit health behavior change. More importantly, CBT has proved to be effective in smoking cessation, in the context of smoking-related costs to the National Health Service (NHS) having been estimated to be as high as £2.6bn in 2015. Although the evidence base for computerized CBT in mental health is strong, there is limited literature on its use in smoking cessation. This, combined with the cost-effectiveness of mHealth interventions, advocates a need for research into the effectiveness of CBT-based smoking cessation apps. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was, first, to explore participants' perceptions of 2 mHealth apps, a CBT-based app, Quit Genius, and a non-CBT-based app, NHS Smokefree, over a variety of themes. Second, the study aimed to investigate the perceptions and health behavior of users of each app with respect to smoking cessation. METHODS: A qualitative short-term longitudinal study was conducted, using a sample of 29 smokers allocated to one of the 2 apps, Quit Genius or Smokefree. Each user underwent 2 one-to-one semistructured interviews, 1 week apart. Thematic analysis was carried out, and important themes were identified. Descriptive statistics regarding participants' perceptions and health behavior in relation to smoking cessation are also provided. RESULTS: The thematic analysis resulted in five higher themes and several subthemes. Participants were generally more positive about Quit Genius's features, as well as about its design and information engagement and quality. Quit Genius users reported increased motivation to quit smoking, as well as greater willingness to continue using their allocated app after 1 week. Moreover, these participants demonstrated preliminary changes in their smoking behavior, although this was in the context of our limited sample, not yet allowing for the finding to be generalizable. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings underscore the use of CBT in the context of mHealth apps as a feasible and potentially effective smoking cessation tool. mHealth apps must be well developed, preferably with an underlying behavioral change mechanism, to promote positive health behavior change. Digital CBT has the potential to become a powerful tool in overcoming current health care challenges. The present results should be replicated in a wider sample using the apps for a longer period so as to allow for generalizability. Further research is also needed to focus on the effect of greater personalization on behavioral change and on understanding the psychological barriers to the adoption of new mHealth solutions

Utility, games, and narratives

This paper provides a general overview of theories and tools to model individual and collective decision-making. In particular, stress is laid on the interaction of several decision-makers. A substantial part of this paper is devoted to utility maximization and its application to collective decision-making, Game Theory. However, the pitfalls of utility maximization are thoroughly discussed, and the radically alternative approach of viewing decision-making as constructing narratives is presented with its emerging computational tools.Interactions, Collective Decision-Making

The Industry and Policy Context for Digital Games for Empowerment and Inclusion:Market Analysis, Future Prospects and Key Challenges in Videogames, Serious Games and Gamification

The effective use of digital games for empowerment and social inclusion (DGEI) of people and communities at risk of exclusion will be shaped by, and may influence the development of a range of sectors that supply products, services, technology and research. The principal industries that would appear to be implicated are the 'videogames' industry, and an emerging 'serious games' industry. The videogames industry is an ecosystem of developers, publishers and other service providers drawn from the interactive media, software and broader ICT industry that services the mainstream leisure market in games, The 'serious games' industry is a rather fragmented and growing network of firms, users, research and policy makers from a variety of sectors. This emerging industry is are trying to develop knowledge, products, services and a market for the use of digital games, and products inspired by digital games, for a range of non-leisure applications. This report provides a summary of the state of play of these industries, their trajectories and the challenges they face. It also analyses the contribution they could make to exploiting digital games for empowerment and social inclusion. Finally, it explores existing policy towards activities in these industries and markets, and draws conclusions as to the future policy relevance of engaging with them to support innovation and uptake of effective digital game-based approaches to empowerment and social inclusion.JRC.J.3-Information Societ

Secessionism and Minority Protection in an Uncertain World

With the changing economic circumstances confronting their countries, regionally concentrated minorities have been facing a strategic problem, important aspects of which can be stylized as a situation in which a minority leader is uncertain about the costs of secession for her community. This paper shows that this uncertainty is a central cause of secession, using a model which incorporates both policies to appease secessionist aspirations and informational asymmetries. In a situation of asymmetric information, in which the policy-maker is better informed about the consequences of separation than the minority leader, signaling incentives make secession the unique equilibrium outcome, whether mutually advantageous compromises exist or not. We also show that the ruling majority may seek to maintain political unity by pre-committing to minority protection rules which prevent bluffing by the informed policy-maker. Additionally, the model generates comparative statics results on the question of which states are most likely to adopt constitutional rules protecting the minorities living within their borders.Constitutional commitment, secession, signaling, regional redistribution

Exploiting Ethnicity in Russian Hybrid Threats

Recently, the term ‘hybrid warfare’ has been applied to a set of levers by which some actors in international relations attempt to achieve their foreign policy objectives. One of the levers Russia employs in their use of hybrid warfare is to exploit ethnic cleavages in targeted societies. In former Soviet Republics, Russian uses propaganda to reach out to ethnic Russians populations (or Russian speakers) in those countries. In other countries, Russia cynically exploits ethnic cleavages simply to cause problems in targeted countries, such as Arab immigrants in western Europe or Catalonians in Spain. This paper explores the nature of Russia’s attempts to exploit ethnic cleavages and how western government should address the