Potentials and Limits of Bayesian Networks to Deal with Uncertainty in the Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Policies

Bayesian networks (BNs) have been increasingly applied to support management and decision-making processes under conditions of environmental variability and uncertainty, providing logical and holistic reasoning in complex systems since they succinctly and effectively translate causal assertions between variables into patterns of probabilistic dependence. Through a theoretical assessment of the features and the statistical rationale of BNs, and a review of specific applications to ecological modelling, natural resource management, and climate change policy issues, the present paper analyses the effectiveness of the BN model as a synthesis framework, which would allow the user to manage the uncertainty characterising the definition and implementation of climate change adaptation policies. The review will let emerge the potentials of the model to characterise, incorporate and communicate the uncertainty, with the aim to provide an efficient support to an informed and transparent decision making process. The possible drawbacks arising from the implementation of BNs are also analysed, providing potential solutions to overcome them.Adaptation to Climate Change, Bayesian Network, Uncertainty

Exploiting monotonicity via logistic regression in Bayesian network learning

An important challenge in machine learning is to find ways of learning quickly from very small amounts of training data. The only way to learn from small data samples is to constrain the learning process by exploiting background knowledge. In this report, we present a theoretical analysis on the use of constrained logistic regression for estimating conditional probability distribution in Bayesian Networks (BN) by using background knowledge in the form of qualitative monotonicity statements. Such background knowledge is treated as a set of constraints on the parameters of a logistic function during training. Our goal of finding the appropriate BN model is two-fold: (a) we want to exploit any monotonic relationship between random variables that may generally exist as domain knowledge and (b) we want to be able to address the problem of estimating the conditional distribution of a random variable with a large number of parents. We discuss variants of the logistic regression model and present an analysis on the corresponding constraints required to implement monotonicity. More importantly, we outline the problem in some of these variants in terms of the number of parameters and constraints which, in some cases, can grow exponentially with the number of parent variables. To address this problem, we present two variants of the constrained logistic regression model, M[superscipt 2b][subscript CLR] and M³[subscript CLR], in which the number of constraints required to implement monotonicity does not grow exponentially with the number of parents hence providing a practicable method for estimating conditional probabilities with very sparse data.Keywords: logistic regression, Bayesian network learning, monotonicit

Performance Analysis and Design of Maximum Ratio Combining in Channel-Aware MIMO Decision Fusion

In this paper we present a theoretical performance analysis of the maximum ratio combining (MRC) rule for channel-aware decision fusion over multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) channels for (conditionally) dependent and independent local decisions. The system probabilities of false alarm and detection conditioned on the channel realization are derived in closed form and an approximated threshold choice is given. Furthermore, the channel-averaged (CA) performances are evaluated in terms of the CA system probabilities of false alarm and detection and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) through the closed form of the conditional moment generating function (MGF) of the MRC statistic, along with Gauss-Chebyshev (GC) quadrature rules. Furthermore, we derive the deflection coefficients in closed form, which are used for sensor threshold design. Finally, all the results are confirmed through Monte Carlo simulations.Comment: To appear in IEEE Transactions on Wireless Communication

Causal Modelling Based on Bayesian Networks for Preliminary Design of Buildings

Bayesian networks are a very general and powerful tool that can be used for a large number of problems involving uncertainty: reasoning, learning, planning and perception. They provide a language that supports efficient algorithms for the automatic construction of expert systems in several different contexts. The range of applications of Bayesian networks currently extends over almost all fields including engineering, biology and medicine, information and communication technologies and finance. This book is a collection of original contributions to the methodology and applications of Bayesian networks. It contains recent developments in the field and illustrates, on a sample of applications, the power of Bayesian networks in dealing the modeling of complex systems. Readers that are not familiar with this tool, but have some technical background, will find in this book all necessary theoretical and practical information on how to use and implement Bayesian networks in their own work. There is no doubt that this book constitutes a valuable resource for engineers, researchers, students and all those who are interested in discovering and experiencing the potential of this major tool of the century