Classical vs. Bayesian methods for linear system identification: point estimators and confidence sets

This paper compares classical parametric methods with recently developed Bayesian methods for system identification. A Full Bayes solution is considered together with one of the standard approximations based on the Empirical Bayes paradigm. Results regarding point estimators for the impulse response as well as for confidence regions are reported.Comment: number of pages = 8, number of figures =

Sequential Design for Ranking Response Surfaces

We propose and analyze sequential design methods for the problem of ranking several response surfaces. Namely, given $L \ge 2$ response surfaces over a continuous input space $\cal X$, the aim is to efficiently find the index of the minimal response across the entire $\cal X$. The response surfaces are not known and have to be noisily sampled one-at-a-time. This setting is motivated by stochastic control applications and requires joint experimental design both in space and response-index dimensions. To generate sequential design heuristics we investigate stepwise uncertainty reduction approaches, as well as sampling based on posterior classification complexity. We also make connections between our continuous-input formulation and the discrete framework of pure regret in multi-armed bandits. To model the response surfaces we utilize kriging surrogates. Several numerical examples using both synthetic data and an epidemics control problem are provided to illustrate our approach and the efficacy of respective adaptive designs.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figures (updated several sections and figures

Unsupervised Object Discovery and Tracking in Video Collections

This paper addresses the problem of automatically localizing dominant objects as spatio-temporal tubes in a noisy collection of videos with minimal or even no supervision. We formulate the problem as a combination of two complementary processes: discovery and tracking. The first one establishes correspondences between prominent regions across videos, and the second one associates successive similar object regions within the same video. Interestingly, our algorithm also discovers the implicit topology of frames associated with instances of the same object class across different videos, a role normally left to supervisory information in the form of class labels in conventional image and video understanding methods. Indeed, as demonstrated by our experiments, our method can handle video collections featuring multiple object classes, and substantially outperforms the state of the art in colocalization, even though it tackles a broader problem with much less supervision

An Entropy Search Portfolio for Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient method for black-box global optimization. How- ever, the performance of a Bayesian optimization method very much depends on its exploration strategy, i.e. the choice of acquisition function, and it is not clear a priori which choice will result in superior performance. While portfolio methods provide an effective, principled way of combining a collection of acquisition functions, they are often based on measures of past performance which can be misleading. To address this issue, we introduce the Entropy Search Portfolio (ESP): a novel approach to portfolio construction which is motivated by information theoretic considerations. We show that ESP outperforms existing portfolio methods on several real and synthetic problems, including geostatistical datasets and simulated control tasks. We not only show that ESP is able to offer performance as good as the best, but unknown, acquisition function, but surprisingly it often gives better performance. Finally, over a wide range of conditions we find that ESP is robust to the inclusion of poor acquisition functions.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure

Analysing multiparticle quantum states

The analysis of multiparticle quantum states is a central problem in quantum information processing. This task poses several challenges for experimenters and theoreticians. We give an overview over current problems and possible solutions concerning systematic errors of quantum devices, the reconstruction of quantum states, and the analysis of correlations and complexity in multiparticle density matrices.Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures, prepared for proceedings of the "Quantum [Un]speakables II" conference (Vienna, 2014

A Tutorial on Bayesian Optimization of Expensive Cost Functions, with Application to Active User Modeling and Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning

We present a tutorial on Bayesian optimization, a method of finding the maximum of expensive cost functions. Bayesian optimization employs the Bayesian technique of setting a prior over the objective function and combining it with evidence to get a posterior function. This permits a utility-based selection of the next observation to make on the objective function, which must take into account both exploration (sampling from areas of high uncertainty) and exploitation (sampling areas likely to offer improvement over the current best observation). We also present two detailed extensions of Bayesian optimization, with experiments---active user modelling with preferences, and hierarchical reinforcement learning---and a discussion of the pros and cons of Bayesian optimization based on our experiences