18 research outputs found

    Exploiting Big Data in Logistics Risk Assessment via Bayesian Nonparametrics

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    <p>In cargo logistics, a key performance measure is transport risk, defined as the deviation of the actual arrival time from the planned arrival time. Neither earliness nor tardiness is desirable for the customer and freight forwarder. In this paper, we investigate ways to assess and forecast transport risks using a half-year of air cargo data, provided by a leading forwarder on 1336 routes served by 20 airlines. Interestingly, our preliminary data analysis shows a strong multimodal feature in the transport risks, driven by unobserved events, such as cargo missing flights. To accommodate this feature, we introduce a Bayesian nonparametric model -- the probit stick-breaking process (PSBP) mixture model -- for flexible estimation of the conditional (i.e., state-dependent) density function of transport risk. We demonstrate that using simpler methods, such as OLS linear regression, can lead to misleading inferences. Our model provides a tool for the forwarder to offer customized price and service quotes. It can also generate baseline airline performance to enable fair supplier evaluation. Furthermore, the method allows us to separate recurrent risks from disruption risks. This is important, because hedging strategies for these two kinds of risks are often drastically different.</p>Thesi

    Predicting supply chain risks using machine learning: The trade-off between performance and interpretability

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    Managing supply chain risks has received increased attention in recent years, aiming to shield supply chains from disruptions by predicting their occurrence and mitigating their adverse effects. At the same time, the resurgence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has led to the investigation of machine learning techniques and their applicability in supply chain risk management. However, most works focus on prediction performance and neglect the importance of interpretability so that results can be understood by supply chain practitioners, helping them make decisions that can mitigate or prevent risks from occurring. In this work, we first propose a supply chain risk prediction framework using data-driven AI techniques and relying on the synergy between AI and supply chain experts. We then explore the trade-off between prediction performance and interpretability by implementing and applying the framework on the case of predicting delivery delays in a real-world multi-tier manufacturing supply chain. Experiment results show that prioritising interpretability over performance may require a level of compromise, especially with regard to average precision scores

    Academic Year 2019-2020 Faculty Excellence Showcase, AFIT Graduate School of Engineering & Management

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    An excerpt from the Dean\u27s Message: There is no place like the Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT). There is no academic group like AFIT’s Graduate School of Engineering and Management. Although we run an educational institution similar to many other institutions of higher learning, we are different and unique because of our defense-focused graduate-research-based academic programs. Our programs are designed to be relevant and responsive to national defense needs. Our programs are aligned with the prevailing priorities of the US Air Force and the US Department of Defense. Our faculty team has the requisite critical mass of service-tested faculty members. The unique composition of pure civilian faculty, military faculty, and service-retired civilian faculty makes AFIT truly unique, unlike any other academic institution anywhere

    2018 Faculty Excellence Showcase, AFIT Graduate School of Engineering & Management

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    Excerpt: As an academic institution, we strive to meet and exceed the expectations for graduate programs and laud our values and contributions to the academic community. At the same time, we must recognize, appreciate, and promote the unique non-academic values and accomplishments that our faculty team brings to the national defense, which is a priority of the Federal Government. In this respect, through our diverse and multi-faceted contributions, our faculty, as a whole, excel, not only along the metrics of civilian academic expectations, but also along the metrics of military requirements, and national priorities
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