The Mathematics and Statistics of Quantitative Risk Management

It was the aim of this workshop to gather a multidisciplinary and international group of scientists at the forefront of research in areas related to the mathematics and statistics of quantitative risk management. The main objectives of this workshop were to break down disciplinary barriers that often limit collaborative research in quantitative risk management, and to communicate the state of the art research from the different disciplines, and to point towards new directions of research

Untangling hotel industry’s inefficiency: An SFA approach applied to a renowned Portuguese hotel chain

The present paper explores the technical efficiency of four hotels from Teixeira Duarte Group - a renowned Portuguese hotel chain. An efficiency ranking is established from these four hotel units located in Portugal using Stochastic Frontier Analysis. This methodology allows to discriminate between measurement error and systematic inefficiencies in the estimation process enabling to investigate the main inefficiency causes. Several suggestions concerning efficiency improvement are undertaken for each hotel studied.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

On fixed gain recursive estimators with discontinuity in the parameters

In this paper we estimate the tracking error of a fixed gain stochastic approximation scheme. The underlying process is not assumed Markovian, a mixing condition is required instead. Furthermore, the updating function may be discontinuous in the parameter.Comment: Thoroughly revised, Assumption 3.4 strengthene

Stochastic processes for graphs, extreme values and their causality: inference, asymptotic theory and applications

This thesis provides some theoretical and practical statistical inference tools for multivariate stochastic processes to better understand the behaviours and properties present in the data. In particular, we focus on the modelling of graphs, that is a family of nodes linked together by a collection of edges, and extreme values, that are values above a high threshold to have their own dynamics compared to the typical behaviour of the process. We develop an ensemble of statistical models, statistical inference methods and their asymptotic study to ensure the good behaviour of estimation schemes in a wide variety of settings. We also devote a chapter to the formulation of a methodology based on pre-existing theory to unveil the causal dependency structure behind high-impact events.Open Acces

Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View

As a unified discipline, econometrics is still relatively young and has been transforming and expanding very rapidly over the past few decades. Major advances have taken place in the analysis of cross sectional data by means of semi-parametric and non-parametric techniques. Heterogeneity of economic relations across individuals, firms and industries is increasingly acknowledged and attempts have been made to take them into account either by integrating out their effects or by modeling the sources of heterogeneity when suitable panel data exists. The counterfactual considerations that underlie policy analysis and treatment evaluation have been given a more satisfactory foundation. New time series econometric techniques have been developed and employed extensively in the areas of macroeconometrics and finance. Non-linear econometric techniques are used increasingly in the analysis of cross section and time series observations. Applications of Bayesian techniques to econometric problems have been given new impetus largely thanks to advances in computer power and computational techniques. The use of Bayesian techniques have in turn provided the investigators with a unifying framework where the tasks of forecasting, decision making, model evaluation and learning can be considered as parts of the same interactive and iterative process; thus paving the way for establishing the foundation of “real time econometrics”. This paper attempts to provide an overview of some of these developments.history of econometrics, microeconometrics, macroeconometrics, Bayesian econometrics, nonparametric and semi-parametric analysis