Automatic Scheduling and Planning (ASAP) in future ground control systems

This report describes two complementary approaches to the problem of space mission planning and scheduling. The first is an Expert System or Knowledge-Based System for automatically resolving most of the activity conflicts in a candidate plan. The second is an Interactive Graphics Decision Aid to assist the operator in manually resolving the residual conflicts which are beyond the scope of the Expert System. The two system designs are consistent with future ground control station activity requirements, support activity timing constraints, resource limits and activity priority guidelines

Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts

In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts' judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries will make. We compared the accuracy of 106 expert and 169 novice forecasts for eight real conflicts. The forecasts of experts using unaided judgment were little better than those of novices, and neither were much better than simply guessing. The forecasts of experts with more experience were no more accurate than those with less. Speculating that consideration of the relative frequency of decisions might improve accuracy, we obtained 89 forecasts from novices instructed to assume there were 100 similar situations and to ascribe frequencies to decisions. Their forecasts were no more accurate than 96 forecasts from novices asked to pick the most likely decision. We conclude that expert judgment should not be used for predicting decisions that people will make in conflicts. Their use might lead decision makers to overlook other, more useful, approaches.Bad faith, Framing, Hindsight bias, Methods, Politics.

Development of Structure of Expert System on the Basis of Solution of Conflicts Among Production Rules

Article considers the structure of expert system for effective management of normal daily regimes of Georgian power system. In contrast to existing structure, this structure includes the block of solution of conflicts among production rules. This block with blocks of logical output and calculation forms one big block. Advantage of such method is that solution of conflicts among rules takes place in the process of logical output. Therefore, process of making effective decisions is faster.expert system, power system, technologist, production rules

Tracking human movement in office environment using video processing

In this paper, we proposed an approach of multi-person movement tracking in office environment without any identity conflicts. Simple image processing with frame differentiation method is applied to identify multiple human motion. An Expert System is applied to predict next camera occurrence of the tracking human. The main objective of this work is to detect and track multi-human motion using single camera in more than a room in an office

Further evidence on game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts.

If people in conflicts can more accurately forecast how others will respond, that should help them to make better decisions. Contrary to expert expectations, earlier research found game theorists' forecasts were less accurate than forecasts from simulated interactions using student role players. To assess whether the game theorists had been disadvantaged by the selection of conflicts, I obtained forecasts for three new conflicts (an escalating international confrontation, a takeover battle in the telecommunications industry, and a personal grievance dispute) of types preferred by game theory experts. As before, students were used as role-players, and others provided forecasts using their judgement. When averaged across eight conflicts including five from earlier research, 102 forecasts by 23 game theorists were no more accurate (31% correct predictions) than 357 forecasts by students who used their unaided judgement (32%). Sixty-two percent of 105 simulated-interaction forecasts were accurate, providing an average error reduction of 47% over game-theorist forecasts. Forecasts can sometimes have value without being strictly accurate. Assessing the forecasts using the alternative criterion of usefulness led to the same conclusions about the relative merits of the methods.accuracy, conflict, forecasting, game theory, judgement, methods, role playing, simulated interaction.

Election of Water Resources Management Entity Using a Multi-Criteria Decision (MCD) Method in Salta Province (Argentine)

At present, the water resources are a strategic element each time more necessary and limited becoming a source of conflicts. For that, it is fundamental to create an independent and competent entity with good reputation and social acceptation. This entity must be able to obtain, store and process all data dispersed in different entities creating a network for these purposes. Finally, it must be able to organize different branches between the government and the final users. Using one of the wellknown Multicriteria Decision Methods(MCDM) with several realistic alternatives and several criteria identified in expert seminars in Salta and Madrid, we have obtained hopeful results and more recently new modifications introduced have generated better results

Value of expertise for forecasting decisions in conflicts

In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts’ judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries will make. We compared the accuracy of 106 expert and 169 novice forecasts for eight real conflicts. The forecasts of experts using unaided judgment were little better than those of novices, and neither were much better than simply guessing. The forecasts of experts with more experience were no more accurate than those with less. Speculating that consideration of the relative frequency of decisions might improve accuracy, we obtained 89 forecasts from novices instructed to assume there were 100 similar situations and to ascribe frequencies to decisions. Their forecasts were no more accurate than 96 forecasts from novices asked to pick the most likely decision. We conclude that expert judgment should not be used for predicting decisions that people will make in conflicts. Their use might lead decision makers to overlook other, more useful, approaches

Issues concerning web-based business reporting: an analysis of the views of interested parties

Rapid developments in information and communications technology have led organisations in many countries to consider the impact of the Internet on the delivery and dissemination of business information. This paper reports the findings of a UK study into the views of various user groups, preparers and auditors regarding specific proposals for change and newly emerging practices. Over 500 individuals from six groups responded to a questionnaire study, representing an overall response rate of 33%. Views were elicited regarding: (i) the desirability of different kinds of additional information that could be provided electronically, (ii) the usefulness of different navigation and search aids, and (iii) the portability of information under different formats.It is found that users favour many of the expansions of scope made possible by the web. A range of navigation aids, search aids and file formats are found by all groups to be at least fairly useful, especially global navigation aids. Preferences regarding file formats vary across the groups. Paired group comparisons show that, while expert and non-expert users hold similar views in relation to many issues, users' and preparers' views differ considerably. Auditors' views generally fall in between those of users and preparers. Cyert and Ijiri's (1974) framework is used to rationalise the observed conflicts and congruences of interest, underpinning clear pointers for policy-makers

Identifying public values and spatial conflicts in urban planning

Identifying the diverse and often competing values of citizens, and resolving the consequent public value conflicts, are of significant importance for inclusive and integrated urban development. Scholars have highlighted that relational, value-laden urban space gives rise to many diverse conflicts that vary both spatially and temporally. Although notions of public value conflicts have been conceived in theory, there are very few empirical studies that identify such values and their conflicts in urban space. Building on public value theory and using a case-study mixed-methods approach, this paper proposes a new approach to empirically investigate public value conflicts in urban space. Using unstructured participatory data of 4,528 citizen contributions from a Public Participation Geographic Information Systems in Hamburg, Germany, natural language processing and spatial clustering techniques are used to identify areas of potential value conflicts. Four expert workshops assess and interpret these quantitative findings. Integrating both quantitative and qualitative results, 19 general public values and a total of 9 archetypical conflicts are identified. On the basis of these results, this paper proposes a new conceptual tool of Public Value Spheres that extends the theoretical notion of public-value conflicts and helps to further account for the value-laden nature of urban space