Creating a climate for food security: the business, people & landscapes in food production

AbstractBalancing human and environmental needs is urgent where food security and sustainability are under pressure from population increases and changing climates. Requirements of food security, social justice and environmental justice exacerbate the impact of agriculture on the supporting ecological environment. Viability of the Australian rural economy is intrinsically linked to food production and food security requiring systematic evaluation of climate change adaptation strategies for agricultural productivity.This food-systems research drew on global climate change literature to identify risks and adaptation. The transdisciplinary team applied specialist experience through collaboration in social science, economics and land-management to provide comprehensive methods to engage researchers and decision-makers making decisions across the food-system. Research focus on the dairy and horticulture sectors in the SW-WA and SEQld provided a comparative context in food-systems and regional economies. Expert knowledge was engaged through a series of panel meetings to test and challenge existing practice applying conceptual and empirical approaches in Structural Equation, Value-Chain, Supply-Chain modelling and Analytical Hierarchy modelling. This iterative action-research process provided immediate generation and transfer of expert knowledge across the involved sectors. The scenarios and adaptive strategies provide evidence-based pathways to strengthen food-systems; account for climate change mitigation and adaptation; and weather-proof regional economies in the face of climate change. Balancing human and environmental needs is urgent where food security and sustainability are under pressure from population increases and changing climates. Requirements of food security, social justice and environmental justice exacerbate the impact of agriculture on the supporting ecological environment. Viability of the Australian rural economy is intrinsically linked to food production and food security requiring systematic evaluation of climate change adaptation strategies for agricultural productivity.This food-systems research drew on global climate change literature to identify risks and adaptation. The transdisciplinary team applied specialist experience through collaboration in social science, economics and land-management to provide comprehensive methods to engage researchers and decision-makers making decisions across the food-system. Research focus on the dairy and horticulture sectors in the SW-WA and SEQld provided a comparative context in food-systems and regional economies. Expert knowledge was engaged through a series of panel meetings to test and challenge existing practice applying conceptual and empirical approaches in Structural Equation, Value-Chain, Supply-Chain modelling and Analytical Hierarchy modelling. This iterative action-research process provided immediate generation and transfer of expert knowledge across the involved sectors. The scenarios and adaptive strategies provide evidence-based pathways to strengthen food-systems; account for climate change mitigation and adaptation; and weather-proof regional economies in the face of climate change. The triple-bottom-line provided a comprehensive means of addressing social, economic and ecological requirements, and the modelling showed the interacting dynamics between these dimensions. In response to climate change, the agricultural sector must now optimise practices to address the interaction between economic, social and environmental investment. Differences in positions between the industry sector, the government and research sectors demonstrate the need for closer relationships between industry and government if climate change interventions are to be effectively targeted. Modelling shows that capacity for adaptation has a significant bearing on the success of implementing intervention strategies. Without intervention strategies to build viability and support, farm businesses are more likely to fail as a consequence of climate change. A framework of capitals that includes social components - cultural, human and social capital-, economic components -economic and physical capital - and ecological components -ecological and environmental capital - should be applied to address capacities. A priority assessment of climate change intervention strategies shows that strategies categorised as ‘Technology & Extension’ are most important in minimising risk from climate change impacts. To implement interventions to achieve ‘Food Business Resilience’, ‘Business Development’ strategies and alternative business models are most effective. ‘Research and Development’ interventions are essential to achieve enhanced ‘Adaptive Capacity’.The individual components of TBL Adaptive Capacity can be achieved through ‘Policy and Governance’ interventions for building ‘Social Capital’ capacity, ‘Research and Development’ will develop ‘Economic Capital’, and ‘Business Development’ strategies will build ‘Ecological Capital’.These strategic interventions will promote food security and maintain resilience in local food systems, agricultural production communities and markets, global industrial systems, and developing world food systems. Climate change mitigation and adaptation interventions reflect a rich conceptualisation drawing from the Australian context, but also acknowledging the moral context of global association.Please cite this report as:Wardell-Johnson, A, Uddin, N, Islam, N, Nath, T, Stockwell, B, Slade, C 2013 Creating a climate for food security: the businesses, people and landscapes in food production, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 144.Balancing human and environmental needs is urgent where food security and sustainability are under pressure from population increases and changing climates. Requirements of food security, social justice and environmental justice exacerbate the impact of agriculture on the supporting ecological environment. Viability of the Australian rural economy is intrinsically linked to food production and food security requiring systematic evaluation of climate change adaptation strategies for agricultural productivity.This food-systems research drew on global climate change literature to identify risks and adaptation. The transdisciplinary team applied specialist experience through collaboration in social science, economics and land-management to provide comprehensive methods to engage researchers and decision-makers making decisions across the food-system. Research focus on the dairy and horticulture sectors in the SW-WA and SEQld provided a comparative context in food-systems and regional economies. Expert knowledge was engaged through a series of panel meetings to test and challenge existing practice applying conceptual and empirical approaches in Structural Equation, Value-Chain, Supply-Chain modelling and Analytical Hierarchy modelling. This iterative action-research process provided immediate generation and transfer of expert knowledge across the involved sectors. The scenarios and adaptive strategies provide evidence-based pathways to strengthen food-systems; account for climate change mitigation and adaptation; and weather-proof regional economies in the face of climate change. The triple-bottom-line provided a comprehensive means of addressing social, economic and ecological requirements, and the modelling showed the interacting dynamics between these dimensions. In response to climate change, the agricultural sector must now optimise practices to address the interaction between economic, social and environmental investment. Differences in positions between the industry sector, the government and research sectors demonstrate the need for closer relationships between industry and government if climate change interventions are to be effectively targeted. Modelling shows that capacity for adaptation has a significant bearing on the success of implementing intervention strategies. Without intervention strategies to build viability and support, farm businesses are more likely to fail as a consequence of climate change. A framework of capitals that includes social components - cultural, human and social capital-, economic components -economic and physical capital - and ecological components -ecological and environmental capital - should be applied to address capacities. A priority assessment of climate change intervention strategies shows that strategies categorised as ‘Technology & Extension’ are most important in minimising risk from climate change impacts. To implement interventions to achieve ‘Food Business Resilience’, ‘Business Development’ strategies and alternative business models are most effective. ‘Research and Development’ interventions are essential to achieve enhanced ‘Adaptive Capacity’.The individual components of TBL Adaptive Capacity can be achieved through ‘Policy and Governance’ interventions for building ‘Social Capital’ capacity, ‘Research and Development’ will develop ‘Economic Capital’, and ‘Business Development’ strategies will build ‘Ecological Capital’.These strategic interventions will promote food security and maintain resilience in local food systems, agricultural production communities and markets, global industrial systems, and developing world food systems. Climate change mitigation and adaptation interventions reflect a rich conceptualisation drawing from the Australian context, but also acknowledging the moral context of global association

Congress' Wicked Problem: Seeking Knowledge Inside the Information Tsunami

The lack of shared expert knowledge capacity in the U.S. Congress has created a critical weakness in our democratic process. Along with bipartisan cooperation, many contemporary and urgent questions before our legislators require nuance, genuine deliberation and expert judgment. Congress, however, is missing adequate means for this purpose and depends on outdated and in some cases antiquated systems of information referral, sorting, communicating, and convening. Congress is held in record low esteem by the public today. Its failings have been widely analyzed and a multitude of root causes have been identified. This paper does not put forward a simple recipe to fix these ailments, but argues that the absence of basic knowledge management in our legislature is a critical weakness. Congress struggles to make policy on complex issues while it equally lacks the wherewithal to effectively compete on substance in today's 24 hour news cycle.This paper points out that Congress is not so much venal and corrupt as it is incapacitated and obsolete. And, in its present state, it cannot serve the needs of American democracy in the 21st Century.The audience for this paper is those who are working in the open government, civic technology and transparency movements as well as other foundations, think tanks and academic entities. It is also for individuals inside and outside of government who desire background about Congress' current institutional dilemmas, including lack of expertise

A Review on Expert System Applications in Power Plants

The control and monitoring of power generation plants is being complicated day by day, with the increase size and capacity of equipments involved in power generation process. This calls for the presence of experienced and well trained operators for decision making and management of various plant related activities. Scarcity of well trained and experienced plant operators is one of the major problems faced by modern power industry. Application of artificial intelligence techniques, especially expert systems whose main characteristics is to simulate expert plant operator’s actions is one of the actively researched areas in the field of plant automation. This paper presents an overview of various expert system applications in power generation plants. It points out technological advancement of expert system technology and its integration with various types of modern techniques such as fuzzy, neural network, machine vision and data acquisition systems. Expert system can significantly reduce the work load on plant operators and experts, and act as an expert for plant fault diagnosis and maintenance. Various other applications include data processing, alarm reduction, schedule optimisation, operator training and evaluation. The review point out that integration of modern techniques such as neural network, fuzzy, machine vision, data base, simulators etc. with conventional rule based methodologies have added greater dimensions to problem solving capabilities of an expert system.DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/ijece.v4i1.502

Integration of cost-risk assessment of denial of service within an intelligent maintenance system

As organisations become richer in data the function of asset management will have to increasingly use intelligent systems to control condition monitoring systems and organise maintenance. In the future the UK rail industry is anticipating having to optimize capacity by running trains closer to each other. In this situation maintenance becomes extremely problematic as within such a high-performance network a relatively minor fault will impact more trains and passengers; such denial of service causes reputational damage for the industry and causes fines to be levied against the infrastructure owner, Network Rail. Intelligent systems used to control condition monitoring systems will need to optimize for several factors; optimization for minimizing denial of service will be one such factor. With schedules anticipated to be increasingly complicated detailed estimation methods will be extremely difficult to implement. Cost prediction of maintenance activities tend to be expert driven and require extensive details, making automation of such an activity difficult. Therefore a stochastic process will be needed to approach the problem of predicting the denial of service arising from any required maintenance. Good uncertainty modelling will help to increase the confidence of estimates. This paper seeks to detail the challenges that the UK Railway industry face with regards to cost modelling of maintenance activities and outline an example of a suitable cost model for quantifying cost uncertainty. The proposed uncertainty quantification is based on historical cost data and interpretation of its statistical distributions. These estimates are then integrated in a cost model to obtain accurate uncertainty measurements of outputs through Monte-Carlo simulation methods. An additional criteria of the model was that it be suitable for integration into an existing prototype integrated intelligent maintenance system. It is anticipated that applying an integrated maintenance management system will apply significant downward pressure on maintenance budgets and reduce denial of service. Accurate cost estimation is therefore of great importance if anticipated cost efficiencies are to be achieved. While the rail industry has been the focus of this work, other industries have been considered and it is anticipated that the approach will be applicable to many other organisations across several asset management intensive industrie

Citizen Science in Disaster and Conflict Resilience

*Background/Question/Methods*

Within the disaster and conflict response communities, concern about lack of effectiveness of outside responses has led to a debate about the role of local people in developing the capacity to prepare for a crisis and to respond after calamity has struck. Pelling (2007) points out the potential for participatory disaster risk assessment to build local capacity and for generating knowledge that, along with more expert-driven data collection, is used to identify and reduce the risk of disaster. Similarly, Weinstein and Tidball (2007) and Tidball et al. (2008) present an alternative model for post-crisis intervention based on local assets, including ongoing attempts of communities to manage their natural resources. For example, these authors suggest that civic ecology (CE) practices, including community forestry, watershed enhancement, community agriculture and gardening, and other participatory environmental restoration initiatives that emerge from the actions of local residents (Tidball and Krasny 2007), should be examined and perhaps leveraged by outsiders for their ability to mitigate post-crisis situations. The question is, how might CE relate to citizen science in applications post-disaster or conflict?

*Results/Conclusions*

CE practices emerge through the actions of people wanting to manage a local resource, and integrate both learning through small-scale experimentation and observations (adaptive management) and collaborative or participatory processes (co-management). They can be considered as an emergent form of adaptive co-management (Ruitenbeek and Cartier 2001; Armitage, Plummer et al. 2009). The local knowledge of individuals who initiate the practices is critical, although often linkages are made with scientists from universities, government, and non-profit organizations, so multiple forms of knowledge are incorporated into the stewardship activities. This learning shortens feedback times between management actions, such as participatory approaches for planting trees, and seeing the impact of tree planting on local ecological and social systems. CE practices embody attributes that may foster resilience both prior to and post-crisis, including multiple forms of knowledge and governance, self-organization, adaptive learning, shorter feedbacks, and ecosystem services (Folke, S. Carpenter et al. 2002; Walker and Salt 2006). We demonstrate that similar to CE, citizen science could build capacity to mitigate disaster and conflict through shortening feedbacks and through making available multiple forms of knowledge and data collection. Further, given the need for asset-based and participatory interventions post-crisis, and the paucity of existing mechanisms that address this need (Weinstein and Tidball 2007), we examine citizen science and its potential to become part of a tool kit of participatory responses that engage citizens in meaningful activity post-conflict

A knowledge-based system for controlling automobile traffic

Transportation network capacity variations arising from accidents, roadway maintenance activity, and special events as well as fluctuations in commuters' travel demands complicate traffic management. Artificial intelligence concepts and expert systems can be useful in framing policies for incident detection, congestion anticipation, and optimal traffic management. This paper examines the applicability of intelligent route guidance and control as decision aids for traffic management. Basic requirements for managing traffic are reviewed, concepts for studying traffic flow are introduced, and mathematical models for modeling traffic flow are examined. Measures for quantifying transportation network performance levels are chosen, and surveillance and control strategies are evaluated. It can be concluded that automated decision support holds great promise for aiding the efficient flow of automobile traffic over limited-access roadways, bridges, and tunnels

The development of an expert system for decision making in forest resources management.

Tropical forests are a repository of biodiversity which provides habitats for more than 50% of the earth, s plant and animal species, an important sink for carbon stores which provides many goods and ecosystem services and a critical contributor to livelihoods, mainly of the indigenous groups which are totally dependent on forests. Yet, forests are under pressure. Tropical forests are among the earth, s most threatened ecosystems, particularly threatened by human activities and climate change. Consequently, tropical forests are loosing capacity to provide basic goods and services that are essentials to human livelihood. Hence, every decision involving forest utilization should consider various criteria that are important for sustainable forest management. However, making decision about forest resources management often involves balancing conflicting, inadequate and incompatible values of many users and usage of a resource. One of the most fundamental and difficult task is the effective integration of environmental, economic and social values to achieve and maintain ecologically sustainable development. Therefore, an integrated technology such as an Analytical Hierarchy Process and expert systems is essential to be performed in making decision process for forest resources management because an AHP method is capable to capture both tangible and intangible criteria. This study places emphasis on the development of expert system for forest resources management to assist decision makers to select the best forest resources use based on Malaysian Criteria and Indicators [(MC&I)2002]

Developing a health system approach to disaster management: A qualitative analysis of the core literature to complement the WHO Toolkit for assessing health-system capacity for crisis management.

UNLABELLED: BACKGROUND The World Health Organisation's (WHO) sixty-fourth World Health Assembly in May 2011 adopted a resolution on 'strengthening national health emergency and disaster management capacities and resilience of health systems'. Disaster management is a topical issue globally and countries are being encouraged to improve their disaster preparedness, along with growing international commitment to strengthening health systems. Lessons identified from disasters have not been effectively collated; essential experience is forgotten. METHODS This paper describes the analysis of the worldwide experience of disasters through a health systems approach. A systematic search of the core literature from January 2000 to November 2011 was conducted. Components drawn from the WHO's Global assessment of national health sector emergency preparedness and response baseline survey were combined with WHO's six health system building blocks (or levers) to act as the initial analysis anchors, with a further grounded theory qualitative analysis of the literature allowing the identification of emerging themes and insights. The priority areas identified by this literature review were then compared with the topics covered by the new expert-consensus-derived Toolkit for assessing health-system capacity for crisis management developed by the WHO Regional Office for Europe. FINDINGS 143 publications identified from a literature search were analysed and appraised. Themes and examples from the literature demonstrate how health system strengthening should contribute to disaster management. Priority areas under-represented in the WHO Toolkit and identified by the qualitative analysis are discussed. INTERPRETATION Collation and analysis of the disaster management literature identifies how health system strengthening can promote resilience and efficient recovery in the face of disasters. These findings support and complement the WHO Toolkit. Countries can use the literature evidence with the WHO Toolkit to assess their disaster management capacities and identify priorities for strengthening their health system. CITATION: Bayntun C, Rockenschaub G, Murray V. Developing a health system approach to disaster management: A qualitative analysis of the core literature to complement the WHO Toolkit for assessing health-system capacity for crisis management. PLOS Currents Disasters. 2012 Aug 22. doi: 10.1371/5028b6037259a