ASSESSMENT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF USING BAYESIAN NETS AND PETRI NETS IN THE PROCESS OF SELECTING ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY IN A MANUFACTURING COMPANY

The changes caused by Industry 4.0 determine the decisions taken by manufacturing companies. Their activities are aimed at adapting processes and products to dynamic market requirements. Additive manufacturing technologies (AM) are the answer to the needs of enterprises. The implementation of AM technology brings many benefits, although for most 3D printing techniques it is also relatively expensive. Therefore, the implementation process should be preceded by an appropriate analysis, in order, finally, to assess the solution. This article presents the concept of using the Bayesian network when planning the implementation of AM technology. The use of the presented model allows the level of the success of the implementation of selected AM technology, to be estimated under given environmental conditions

Real time DDoS detection using fuzzy estimators

We propose a method for DDoS detection by constructing a fuzzy estimator on the mean packet inter arrival times. We divided the problem into two challenges, the first being the actual detection of the DDoS event taking place and the second being the identification of the offending IP addresses. We have imposed strict real time constraints for the first challenge and more relaxed constraints for the identification of addresses. Through empirical evaluation we confirmed that the detection can be completed within improved real time limits and that by using fuzzy estimators instead of crisp statistical descriptors we can avoid the shortcomings posed by assumptions on the model distribution of the traffic. In addition we managed to obtain results under a 3 sec detection window. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Exploring Terms and Taxonomies Relating to the Cyber International Relations Research Field: or are "Cyberspace" and "Cyber Space" the same?

This project has at least two facets to it: (1) advancing the algorithms in the sub-field of bibliometrics often referred to as "text mining" whereby hundreds of thousands of documents (such as journal articles) are scanned and relationships amongst words and phrases are established and (2) applying these tools in support of the Explorations in Cyber International Relations (ECIR) research effort. In international relations, it is important that all the parties understand each other. Although dictionaries, glossaries, and other sources tell you what words/phrases are supposed to mean (somewhat complicated by the fact that they often contradict each other), they do not tell you how people are actually using them. As an example, when we started, we assumed that "cyberspace" and "cyber space" were essentially the same word with just a minor variation in punctuation (i.e., the space, or lack thereof, between "cyber" and "space") and that the choice of the punctuation was a rather random occurrence. With that assumption in mind, we would expect that the taxonomies that would be constructed by our algorithms using "cyberspace" and "cyber space" as seed terms would be basically the same. As it turned out, they were quite different, both in overall shape and groupings within the taxonomy. Since the overall field of cyber international relations is so new, understanding the field and how people think about (as evidenced by their actual usage of terminology, and how usage changes over time) is an important goal as part of the overall ECIR project

DAG-Based Attack and Defense Modeling: Don't Miss the Forest for the Attack Trees

This paper presents the current state of the art on attack and defense modeling approaches that are based on directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). DAGs allow for a hierarchical decomposition of complex scenarios into simple, easily understandable and quantifiable actions. Methods based on threat trees and Bayesian networks are two well-known approaches to security modeling. However there exist more than 30 DAG-based methodologies, each having different features and goals. The objective of this survey is to present a complete overview of graphical attack and defense modeling techniques based on DAGs. This consists of summarizing the existing methodologies, comparing their features and proposing a taxonomy of the described formalisms. This article also supports the selection of an adequate modeling technique depending on user requirements

Proceedings of the 1st Doctoral Consortium at the European Conference on Artificial Intelligence (DC-ECAI 2020)

1st Doctoral Consortium at the European Conference on Artificial Intelligence (DC-ECAI 2020), 29-30 August, 2020 Santiago de Compostela, SpainThe DC-ECAI 2020 provides a unique opportunity for PhD students, who are close to finishing their doctorate research, to interact with experienced researchers in the field. Senior members of the community are assigned as mentors for each group of students based on the student’s research or similarity of research interests. The DC-ECAI 2020, which is held virtually this year, allows students from all over the world to present their research and discuss their ongoing research and career plans with their mentor, to do networking with other participants, and to receive training and mentoring about career planning and career option

Using fuzzy cognitive maps in modelling and representing weather lore for seasonal weather forecasting over east and Southern Africa

Published ArticleThe creation of scientific weather forecasts is troubled by many technological challenges while their utilization is dismal. Consequently, the majority of small-scale farmers in Africa continue to consult weather lore to reach various cropping decisions. Weather lore is a body of informal folklore associated with the prediction of the weather based on indigenous knowledge and human observation of the environment. As such, it tends to be more holistic and more localized to the farmers’ context. However, weather lore has limitations such as inability to offer forecasts beyond a season. Different types of weather lore exist and utilize almost all available human senses (feel, smell, sight and hear). Out of all the types of weather lore in existence, it is the visual or observed weather lore that is mostly used by indigenous societies to come up with weather predictions. Further, meteorologists continue to treat weather lore knowledge as superstition partly because there is no means to scientifically evaluate and validate it. The visualization and characterization of visual sky objects (such as moon, clouds, stars, rainbow, etc) in forecasting weather is a significant subject of research. In order to realize the integration of visual weather lore knowledge in modern weather forecasting systems, there is a need to represent and scientifically substantiate weather lore. This article is aimed at coming up with a method of organizing the weather lore from the visual perspective of humans. To achieve this objective, we used fuzzy cognitive mapping to model and represent causal relationships between weather lore concepts and weather outcomes. The results demonstrated that FCMs are efficient for matrix representation of selected weather outcome scenarios caused visual weather lore concepts. Based on these results the recommendation of this study is to use this approach as a preliminary processing task towards verifying weather lore

Evaluating practitioner cyber-security attack graph configuration preferences

Attack graphs and attack trees are a popular method of mathematically and visually rep- resenting the sequence of events that lead to a successful cyber-attack. Despite their popularity, there is no standardised attack graph or attack tree visual syntax configuration, and more than seventy self-nominated attack graph and twenty attack tree configurations have been described in the literature - each of which presents attributes such as preconditions and exploits in a different way. This research proposes a practitioner-preferred attack graph visual syntax configuration which can be used to effectively present cyber-attacks. Comprehensive data on participant ( n=212 ) preferences was obtained through a choice based conjoint design in which participants scored attack graph configuration based on their visual syntax preferences. Data was obtained from multiple participant groups which included lecturers, students and industry practitioners with cyber-security specific or general computer science backgrounds. The overall analysis recommends a winning representation with the following attributes. The flow of events is represented top-down as in a flow diagram - as opposed to a fault tree or attack tree where it is presented bottom-up, preconditions - the conditions required for a successful exploit, are represented as ellipses and exploits are represented as rectangles. These results were consistent across the multiple groups and across scenarios which differed according to their attack complexity. The research tested a number of bottom-up approaches - similar to that used in attack trees. The bottom-up designs received the lowest practitioner preference score indicating that attack trees - which also utilise the bottom-up method, are not a preferred design amongst practitioners - when presented with an alternative top-down design. Practitioner preferences are important for any method or framework to become accepted, and this is the first time that an attack modelling technique has been developed and tested for practitioner preferences