Feature-aligned N-BEATS with Sinkhorn divergence

In this study, we propose Feature-aligned N-BEATS as a domain generalization model for univariate time series forecasting problems. The proposed model is an extension of the doubly residual stacking architecture of N-BEATS (Oreshkin et al. [34]) into a representation learning framework. The model is a new structure that involves marginal feature probability measures (i.e., pushforward measures of multiple source domains) induced by the intricate composition of residual operators of N-BEATS in each stack and aligns them stack-wise via an entropic regularized Wasserstein distance referred to as the Sinkhorn divergence (Genevay et al. [14]). The loss function consists of a typical forecasting loss for multiple source domains and an alignment loss calculated with the Sinkhorn divergence, which allows the model to learn invariant features stack-wise across multiple source data sequences while retaining N-BEATS's interpretable design. We conduct a comprehensive experimental evaluation of the proposed approach and the results demonstrate the model's forecasting and generalization capabilities in comparison with methods based on the original N-BEATS

Mining Heterogeneous Multivariate Time-Series for Learning Meaningful Patterns: Application to Home Health Telecare

For the last years, time-series mining has become a challenging issue for researchers. An important application lies in most monitoring purposes, which require analyzing large sets of time-series for learning usual patterns. Any deviation from this learned profile is then considered as an unexpected situation. Moreover, complex applications may involve the temporal study of several heterogeneous parameters. In that paper, we propose a method for mining heterogeneous multivariate time-series for learning meaningful patterns. The proposed approach allows for mixed time-series -- containing both pattern and non-pattern data -- such as for imprecise matches, outliers, stretching and global translating of patterns instances in time. We present the early results of our approach in the context of monitoring the health status of a person at home. The purpose is to build a behavioral profile of a person by analyzing the time variations of several quantitative or qualitative parameters recorded through a provision of sensors installed in the home

Transformation Based Ensembles for Time Series Classification

Until recently, the vast majority of data mining time series classification (TSC) research has focused on alternative distance measures for 1-Nearest Neighbour (1-NN) classifiers based on either the raw data, or on compressions or smoothing of the raw data. Despite the extensive evidence in favour of 1-NN classifiers with Euclidean or Dynamic Time Warping distance, there has also been a flurry of recent research publications proposing classification algorithms for TSC. Generally, these classifiers describe different ways of incorporating summary measures in the time domain into more complex classifiers. Our hypothesis is that the easiest way to gain improvement on TSC problems is simply to transform into an alternative data space where the discriminatory features are more easily detected. To test our hypothesis, we perform a range of benchmarking experiments in the time domain, before evaluating nearest neighbour classifiers on data transformed into the power spectrum, the autocorrelation function, and the principal component space. We demonstrate that on some problems there is dramatic improvement in the accuracy of classifiers built on the transformed data over classifiers built in the time domain, but that there is also a wide variance in accuracy for a particular classifier built on different data transforms. To overcome this variability, we propose a simple transformation based ensemble, then demonstrate that it improves performance and reduces the variability of classifiers built in the time domain only. Our advice to a practitioner with a real world TSC problem is to try transforms before developing a complex classifier; it is the easiest way to get a potentially large increase in accuracy, and may provide further insights into the underlying relationships that characterise the problem

Feature-based time-series analysis

This work presents an introduction to feature-based time-series analysis. The time series as a data type is first described, along with an overview of the interdisciplinary time-series analysis literature. I then summarize the range of feature-based representations for time series that have been developed to aid interpretable insights into time-series structure. Particular emphasis is given to emerging research that facilitates wide comparison of feature-based representations that allow us to understand the properties of a time-series dataset that make it suited to a particular feature-based representation or analysis algorithm. The future of time-series analysis is likely to embrace approaches that exploit machine learning methods to partially automate human learning to aid understanding of the complex dynamical patterns in the time series we measure from the world.Comment: 28 pages, 9 figure