Models of Russia's Macroeconomic Policy at the Turn of the 21st Century

At present the modelling of macroeconomic processes appears to hold theoretical as well as applied interest. Hence, in the present article this method is used with regard to the Russian economy, presenting its actual economic practice in the last decade of the 20th and at the beginning of the 21st century. The author describes three macroeconomic models, taking into consideration the fact that the country is being profoundly influenced by the global financial crisis. The discussed models are: transition economy model, economic growth model and crisis-management model.Autor analizuje w artykule trzy modele makroekonomiczne polityki gospodarczej: model gospodarki transformującej się, model wzrostu gospodarczego i model zarządzania kryzysem

Russian fiscal policy during the financial crisis

This study examines the expanding role of fiscal policy at a time of financial crisis. It analyses the stimulative fiscal measures of the Russian government in 2008-2010 and compares these with simi-lar actions taken in other countries. The risks and limitations associated with the development and implementation of the measures are analyzed. The macroeconomic effects of the fiscal policy measures are estimated using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, the fiscal multip-liers are calculated, and factors influencing multiplier size are examined.fiscal stimulus; fiscal sustainability; SVAR; fiscal multiplier; financial crisis; Russia

The Regime-Dependent Determination of Credibility: A New Look at European Interest Rate Differentials

Once you allow for persistence in macroeconomic variables, two aspects of exchange rate credibility emerge whose relative importance can vary over time. Hence, the effect of policy measures on interest rate differentials becomes ambiguous. In this paper, a Markov-switching VAR that allows for parameter shifts across regimes is employed to test the hypothesis of regime-dependent determination of credibility for major EMS countries. The model separates two regimes that are distinct with respect to the time series properties of the interest rate spread. Regime-dependent impulse response functions reveal substantial differences in the response of spreads to macroeconomic shocks across regimes.Regime-switching; VAR; interest rate differentials; regime-dependent impulse response functions; credibility

Households’ response to economic crisis

This paper studies the economic impact of the current global economic downturn on the household sector. Household budgets can be negatively affected by declines in nominal wages and increases in unemployment. We empirically test this effect for the small open emerging economy. As a result of a lack of individual data on household finances, micro data are simulated. Our analysis clearly shows that there is a significant additional decline in consumption related to an increase in household default rates and unemployment. We find that potential household insolvencies have important implications for the financial system as well as for the macroeconomy.credit cycle; households’ distress; insolvency; household default; aggregate consumption

Irreversibility, uncertainty and underemployment equilibria

In a competitive overlapping generation model, underutilization of labor and equipment can be due to the combination of irreversibility of human capital, physical capital and technology with idiosyncratic productivity shocks. Irreversibilities and uncertainty generate an inefficient allocation of resources among sectors, which takes the form of underemployment and underutilization of capacities at the aggregate level and affects the equilibrium path of capital. We provide examples in which this missallocation, called structural "mismatch," can be responsible, a.o., for an "inescapable poverty trap," or for periodic orbits generating endogenous fluctuations in underemployment

Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth

Demographic change in India is opening up new economic opportunities. As in many countries, declining infant and child mortality helped to spark lower fertility, effectively resulting in a temporary baby boom. As this cohort moves into working ages, India finds itself with a potentially higher share of workers as compared with dependents. If working-age people can be productively employed, India's economic growth stands to accelerate. Theoretical and empirical literature on the effect of demographics on labor supply, savings, and economic growth underpins this effort to understand and forecast economic growth in India. Policy choices can potentiate India's realization of economic benefits stemming from demographic change. Failure to take advantage of the opportunities inherent in demographic change can lead to economic stagnation.age structure, China-India comparison, conditional convergence, demographic dividend, demographic transition, economic growth, economic growth in India, policy reform, population health, population of India

Earnings and Wealth Inequality and Income Taxation: Quantifying the Trade-Offs of Switching to a Proportional Income Tax in the U.S. Ohio

This papaer quantifies the steady-state aggregate, distributinal and mobility effects of switching the U.S. to a proportional income tax system. As a perriquisite to the analysi, we propose a theory of earnings and wealth inequality capable of accounting quantitatively for the key aggregate and inequality facts of the U. S. economy. This theory is based on saving to smooth uninsured household-specific risk, for dynastic households that also have some life-cycle characteristics. A suitable calibration of our model economy replicates the U.S. growth facts, earnings and wealth distributions, the progressivity of the tax system and the size of the U.S. government. We also solve a similar model economy in which the government livies a proportional income tax to finance the same flow of government expenditures and public transfers. Our finding show that in this class of model worlds a switch from the U.S. tax system to a proporcional tax system implies the following trade-offs, i.) it increases efficiency as measured by aggregate output by 4,4%, ii. ) it increases inequality as measured by the Gini index of the wealth distribution by 10.4%, and iv.) it changes by little the mobility between the different earnings and wealth groups