Accelerating Parallel Stochastic Gradient Descent via Non-blocking Mini-batches

SOTA decentralized SGD algorithms can overcome the bandwidth bottleneck at the parameter server by using communication collectives like Ring All-Reduce for synchronization. While the parameter updates in distributed SGD may happen asynchronously there is still a synchronization barrier to make sure that the local training epoch at every learner is complete before the learners can advance to the next epoch. The delays in waiting for the slowest learners(stragglers) remain to be a problem in the synchronization steps of these state-of-the-art decentralized frameworks. In this paper, we propose the (de)centralized Non-blocking SGD (Non-blocking SGD) which can address the straggler problem in a heterogeneous environment. The main idea of Non-blocking SGD is to split the original batch into mini-batches, then accumulate the gradients and update the model based on finished mini-batches. The Non-blocking idea can be implemented using decentralized algorithms including Ring All-reduce, D-PSGD, and MATCHA to solve the straggler problem. Moreover, using gradient accumulation to update the model also guarantees convergence and avoids gradient staleness. Run-time analysis with random straggler delays and computational efficiency/throughput of devices is also presented to show the advantage of Non-blocking SGD. Experiments on a suite of datasets and deep learning networks validate the theoretical analyses and demonstrate that Non-blocking SGD speeds up the training and fastens the convergence. Compared with the state-of-the-art decentralized asynchronous algorithms like D-PSGD and MACHA, Non-blocking SGD takes up to 2x fewer time to reach the same training loss in a heterogeneous environment.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Boosting insights in insurance tariff plans with tree-based machine learning methods

Pricing actuaries typically operate within the framework of generalized linear models (GLMs). With the upswing of data analytics, our study puts focus on machine learning methods to develop full tariff plans built from both the frequency and severity of claims. We adapt the loss functions used in the algorithms such that the specific characteristics of insurance data are carefully incorporated: highly unbalanced count data with excess zeros and varying exposure on the frequency side combined with scarce, but potentially long-tailed data on the severity side. A key requirement is the need for transparent and interpretable pricing models which are easily explainable to all stakeholders. We therefore focus on machine learning with decision trees: starting from simple regression trees, we work towards more advanced ensembles such as random forests and boosted trees. We show how to choose the optimal tuning parameters for these models in an elaborate cross-validation scheme, we present visualization tools to obtain insights from the resulting models and the economic value of these new modeling approaches is evaluated. Boosted trees outperform the classical GLMs, allowing the insurer to form profitable portfolios and to guard against potential adverse risk selection

High-Probability Risk Bounds via Sequential Predictors

Online learning methods yield sequential regret bounds under minimal assumptions and provide in-expectation risk bounds for statistical learning. However, despite the apparent advantage of online guarantees over their statistical counterparts, recent findings indicate that in many important cases, regret bounds may not guarantee tight high-probability risk bounds in the statistical setting. In this work we show that online to batch conversions applied to general online learning algorithms can bypass this limitation. Via a general second-order correction to the loss function defining the regret, we obtain nearly optimal high-probability risk bounds for several classical statistical estimation problems, such as discrete distribution estimation, linear regression, logistic regression, and conditional density estimation. Our analysis relies on the fact that many online learning algorithms are improper, as they are not restricted to use predictors from a given reference class. The improper nature of our estimators enables significant improvements in the dependencies on various problem parameters. Finally, we discuss some computational advantages of our sequential algorithms over their existing batch counterparts.Comment: 24 page

Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets

This chapter reviews some work on bounded rationality, expectation formation and learning in complex markets, using the familiar demand-supply cobweb model. We emphasize two stories of bounded rationality, one story of adaptive learning and another story of evolutionary selection. According to the adaptive learning story agents are identical, and can be represented by an ``average agent'', who adapts his behavior trying to learn an optimal rule within a class of simple (e.g. linear) rules. The second story is concerned with heterogeneous, interacting agents and evolutionary selection of different forecasting rules. Agents can choose between costly sophisticated forecasting strategies, such as rational expectations, and freely available simple strategies, such as naive expectations, based upon their past performance. We also confront both stories to laboratory experiments on expectation formation. At the end of the chapter, we integrate both stories and consider an economy with evolutionary selection between a costly sophisticated adaptive learning rule and a cheap simple forecasting rule such as naive expectations.