Rare-event analysis of mixed Poisson random variables, and applications in staffing

A common assumption when modeling queuing systems is that arrivals behave like a Poisson process with constant parameter. In practice, however, call arrivals are often observed to be significantly overdispersed. This motivates that in this paper we consider a mixed Poisson arrival process with arrival rates that are resampled every $N^{a}$ time units, where $a> 0$ and $N$ a scaling parameter. In the first part of the paper we analyse the asymptotic tail distribution of this doubly stochastic arrival process. That is, for large $N$ and i.i.d. arrival rates $X_1, \dots, X_N$, we focus on the evaluation of $P_N(A)$, the probability that the scaled number of arrivals exceeds $NA$. Relying on elementary techniques, we derive the exact asymptotics of $P_N(A)$: For $a 3$ we identify (in closed-form) a function $\tilde{P}_N(A)$ such that $P_N(A) / P_N(A)$ tends to $1$ as $N \to \infty$. For $a \in [\frac{1}{3},\frac{1}{2})$ and $a\in [2, 3)$ we find a partial solution in terms of an asymptotic lower bound. For the special case that the $X_i$s are gamma distributed, we establish the exact asymptotics across all $a> 0$. In addition, we set up an asymptotically efficient importance sampling procedure that produces reliable estimates at low computational cost. The second part of the paper considers an infinite-server queue assumed to be fed by such a mixed Poisson arrival process. Applying a scaling similar to the one in the definition of $P_N(A)$, we focus on the asymptotics of the probability that the number of clients in the system exceeds $NA$. The resulting approximations can be useful in the context of staffing. Our numerical experiments show that, astoundingly, the required staffing level can actually decrease when service times are more variable

Analytical and numerical approach to corporate operational risk modelling

Although The New Basel Accord gives the methodology for managing operational risk in financial institutions, corporate risk seems not to be recognized enough. In this Ph.D. thesis we make an attempt to put some insight into operational risk measurement in a non-financial corporation. The objective is to apply suitable results from insurance ruin theory to build a framework for measuring corporate operational risk and finding required capital charge.Corporate risk management; Operational risk; Actuarial risk theory; Ruin probability; Operational reserves;

Building Loss Models

This paper is intended as a guide to building insurance risk (loss) models. A typical model for insurance risk, the so-called collective risk model, treats the aggregate loss as having a compound distribution with two main components: one characterizing the arrival of claims and another describing the severity (or size) of loss resulting from the occurrence of a claim. In this paper we first present efficient simulation algorithms for several classes of claim arrival processes. Then we review a collection of loss distributions and present methods that can be used to assess the goodness-of-fit of the claim size distribution. The collective risk model is often used in health insurance and in general insurance, whenever the main risk components are the number of insurance claims and the amount of the claims. It can also be used for modeling other non-insurance product risks, such as credit and operational risk.Insurance risk model; Loss distribution; Claim arrival process; Poisson process; Renewal process; Random variable generation; Goodness-of-fit testing

Fractal time random walk and subrecoil laser cooling considered as renewal processes with infinite mean waiting times

There exist important stochastic physical processes involving infinite mean waiting times. The mean divergence has dramatic consequences on the process dynamics. Fractal time random walks, a diffusion process, and subrecoil laser cooling, a concentration process, are two such processes that look qualitatively dissimilar. Yet, a unifying treatment of these two processes, which is the topic of this pedagogic paper, can be developed by combining renewal theory with the generalized central limit theorem. This approach enables to derive without technical difficulties the key physical properties and it emphasizes the role of the behaviour of sums with infinite means.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures, to appear in the Proceedings of Cargese Summer School on "Chaotic dynamics and transport in classical and quantum systems

Economic Inequality: Is it Natural?

Mounting evidences are being gathered suggesting that income and wealth distribution in various countries or societies follow a robust pattern, close to the Gibbs distribution of energy in an ideal gas in equilibrium, but also deviating significantly for high income groups. Application of physics models seem to provide illuminating ideas and understanding, complimenting the observations.Comment: 7 pages, 2 eps figs, 2 boxes with text and 2 eps figs; Popular review To appear in Current Science; typos in refs and text correcte

Tail index estimation, concentration and adaptivity

This paper presents an adaptive version of the Hill estimator based on Lespki's model selection method. This simple data-driven index selection method is shown to satisfy an oracle inequality and is checked to achieve the lower bound recently derived by Carpentier and Kim. In order to establish the oracle inequality, we derive non-asymptotic variance bounds and concentration inequalities for Hill estimators. These concentration inequalities are derived from Talagrand's concentration inequality for smooth functions of independent exponentially distributed random variables combined with three tools of Extreme Value Theory: the quantile transform, Karamata's representation of slowly varying functions, and R\'enyi's characterisation of the order statistics of exponential samples. The performance of this computationally and conceptually simple method is illustrated using Monte-Carlo simulations